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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on


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Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    To be honest there is only one option then and that is a move away from your current location.

    If only it was that simple..

    EC mean is not pretty viewing TBH..

    image.thumb.png.54e68182782982364558679f460dbd67.png

    That ruddy energy spilling across the Atlantic just won't let go..

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Better going forward - to the North of the trough and at least it was trying to ubdercut even with a poorly shaped trough.

    From past experience that trough will just sit there for an eternity. 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    If only it was that simple..

    EC mean is not pretty viewing TBH..

    image.thumb.png.54e68182782982364558679f460dbd67.png

    That ruddy energy spilling across the Atlantic just won't let go..

    Something to do with the way the earth spins and a huge warm ocean  ........ 

    mean upper trough to our east with a mean upper trough to our wsw ..... I’m sure we could squeeze as many decent outcomes for coldies as poor ones from that (especially with potential polar pattern assistance) although I know where my money is for the time being ...... Canadian vortex relaxing it’s strength in the 9/12 day period aswell ........

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Something to do with the way the earth spins and a huge warm ocean  ........ 

    mean upper trough to our east with a mean upper trough to our wsw ..... I’m sure we could squeeze as many decent outcomes for coldies as poor ones from that (especially with potential polar pattern assistance) although I know where my money is for the time being ...... Canadian vortex relaxing it’s strength in the 9/12 day period aswell ........

    Pressure gradually dropping across central and eastern Europe in the 8-10 day timeframe on ECM too could we get an eventual undercut as per longer range GFS I wonder.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Below we have ECM t144,, UKMO t144 and GFS t138.  Crucial point for me at this time frame, a good that may well lead to colder regime down the line.  Look all 3 have a trough over Spain......  not to our SW.  We then don’t see the SW/NE axis of the jet taking control and thus troughs disrupt and HP will pump up and build further north to out NE.  Imo ECM and UKMO Would/could lead to heights developing to the NE with undercut scenario.  
     

    BFTP

     

     

    130DAAD8-22FF-4312-860E-00372683DE68.gif

    A657A662-33D7-4935-937A-D3A57003E3DF.gif

    7EE2D38A-48DB-4CB2-BE60-E763E61533CB.png

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL

    GFS 00Z

    If anyone doesnt get something from this on Sunday - yes Sunday - (that's not FI) - we may as well all give up :unsure2:

    h500slp.png

    uksnowrisk.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Lots of uncertainty around Christmas period with the charts.Met office also saying a small chance of cold dry

    weather possible,very interesting model watching coming up.Will pressure rise over U.K. /Scandinavia or

    continue with the unsettled theme.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: I like Spring. Because some Springs you can sunbathe. Some you can sledge.
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
    29 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

    GFS 00Z

    If anyone doesnt get something from this on Sunday - yes Sunday - (that's not FI) - we may as well all give up :unsure2:

    h500slp.png

    uksnowrisk.png

    Being from a location right in the centre pivot of those red/purple colours at 200m above sea level, and having had experience of these marginal setups so many times before I must say I'm not overly convinced just yet

    To me that chart is massively overdoing the snow 'level' and it would probably only be the high ground above 200-300m that would get anything in the way of snow accumulating (though perhaps lowland places would see more in the way of sleet/wintryness)

    Either way I'm pretty positive the chart is probably tricking us a bit - the turnout would be nothing like that

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    10 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

    Being from a location right in the centre pivot of those red/purple colours at 200m above sea level, and having had experience of these marginal setups so many times before I must say I'm not overly convinced just yet

    To me that chart is massively overdoing the snow 'level' and it would probably only be the high ground above 200-300m that would get anything in the way of snow accumulating (though perhaps lowland places would see more in the way of sleet/wintryness)

    Either way I'm pretty positive the chart is probably tricking us a bit - the turnout would be nothing like that

    6z brings the snow risk right down to low levels, but it does seem to have a snow bias since the 'upgrade'.

    viewimage.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl

    FWIW (not a great deal) , CFS weekly anomalies looking quite promising

    image.thumb.png.027182bd90b2151e6c15a2ad4b47a0de.pngimage.thumb.png.07c4296fc05d24c595e48bd7c3a1d468.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
    1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

    6z brings the snow risk right down to low levels, but it does seem to have a snow bias since the 'upgrade'.

    viewimage.png

    It's always had a snowy bias to it the risk of some snow is there for Saturday night but confidence is low. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    19 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    6z brings the snow risk right down to low levels, but it does seem to have a snow bias since the 'upgrade'.

    viewimage.png

    Given there is such large differences between EC and GFS with Friday night's low track, Ec has it track across S England GFS across N England, wouldn't even consider snow potential as far away as early Sunday for now. 00z EC doesn't even show GFS's low for early Sun, though has a frontal wave or trough moving NE, which brings snow to Wales and N England for a time. This far off, could change ...

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    The ICON also toying with the risk. Not just the GFS that's latching onto this scenario. Although, others are less bullish. 

    image.thumb.png.fcdd91811851cac9cd1b6a239507118e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Poor outlook from the GFS, particularly when you look at the vortex and it’s not even very organised yet. Shows you just how many hurdles there is in the way of us getting any meaningful nationwide cold spells, so many pieces have to be just right.

    295851BB-9CEC-4578-90FE-D67C0AB1BCC4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
    37 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Here's the snow accumulation chart.

    96-780UK_orv6.GIF

    @StretfordEnd1996 Meteociel agreement? Lancashire and the Fylde snowstarved as per :oldgrin:

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Mid to long term the models and ensembles are a bit clueless at the moment. Plenty of cold options on the table though and much better than having the certainty of a Euro trash high and zonality ! 

    Below 00z GFS Vs 06z - look at the difference over northern scandi!  

    BD069F1F-E6EF-4A64-888A-64BBFEC03A20.png

    0655CB67-537B-4C58-9092-ECCA6ED9942A.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    image.thumb.png.a1492e079be3756b33f6238c7f6afb47.png

    I Honestly wouldn't worry about this model any more - it is also showing a Bartlett in month 4-6 - are we really going to have a Westerly right the way out to next June???

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Very fluid nhp ATM without any real strong PV.very difficult to nail down anything after 7-9 days imo.gfs 6z being the example

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    If only it was that simple..

    EC mean is not pretty viewing TBH..

    image.thumb.png.54e68182782982364558679f460dbd67.png

    That ruddy energy spilling across the Atlantic just won't let go..

    The EC mean a couple of weeks ago was showing cold favoured option with potential.

    That didn't work out too well.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The variety run to run in GFS FI really does not suggest any cold for the UK till around Christmas. It is probably looking at major changes as we head towards the New Year. The stark differences in just one run on the GFS op just after D10:

    0z:1783087380_gfsnh-0-300(6).thumb.png.de7dff7da36a65509a603bb08354ab4b.png06z181306353_gfsnh-0-288(5).thumb.png.2ba561e23e157d55e91e026a52de8b3f.pngSpread 0z:gensnh-22-1-360.thumb.png.a65a8f81ab9d0a5c3da8fb8071baf7ce.png

    The spread on the GFS 0z highlighted this^^^.

    At least we are seeing a Possible Pacific wave after D10.  At the moment we see a signal in FI of chaos op wise so getting to a possible solution would be a good step, then we can go forward from there. The late FI from the 0z and 06z:

    gfseu-0-348.thumb.png.9ff2de548152c687ddf5ad0e24b9ab4c.png107114922_gfseu-0-336(1).thumb.png.4e40f7c7878130021c94e58ea03faab5.png

    Again no sign of tPV becoming the driver (as noted by other posters).

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    A small step in the 'right' direction? One might even be able to partake of a game of Hunt The Sleet Blob...A game for all the family?:unsure2:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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