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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be honest there is only one option then and that is a move away from your current location.

If only it was that simple..

EC mean is not pretty viewing TBH..

image.thumb.png.54e68182782982364558679f460dbd67.png

That ruddy energy spilling across the Atlantic just won't let go..

Edited by northwestsnow

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17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Better going forward - to the North of the trough and at least it was trying to ubdercut even with a poorly shaped trough.

From past experience that trough will just sit there for an eternity. 

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33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If only it was that simple..

EC mean is not pretty viewing TBH..

image.thumb.png.54e68182782982364558679f460dbd67.png

That ruddy energy spilling across the Atlantic just won't let go..

Something to do with the way the earth spins and a huge warm ocean  ........ 

mean upper trough to our east with a mean upper trough to our wsw ..... I’m sure we could squeeze as many decent outcomes for coldies as poor ones from that (especially with potential polar pattern assistance) although I know where my money is for the time being ...... Canadian vortex relaxing it’s strength in the 9/12 day period aswell ........

Edited by bluearmy

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19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Something to do with the way the earth spins and a huge warm ocean  ........ 

mean upper trough to our east with a mean upper trough to our wsw ..... I’m sure we could squeeze as many decent outcomes for coldies as poor ones from that (especially with potential polar pattern assistance) although I know where my money is for the time being ...... Canadian vortex relaxing it’s strength in the 9/12 day period aswell ........

Pressure gradually dropping across central and eastern Europe in the 8-10 day timeframe on ECM too could we get an eventual undercut as per longer range GFS I wonder.

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Below we have ECM t144,, UKMO t144 and GFS t138.  Crucial point for me at this time frame, a good that may well lead to colder regime down the line.  Look all 3 have a trough over Spain......  not to our SW.  We then don’t see the SW/NE axis of the jet taking control and thus troughs disrupt and HP will pump up and build further north to out NE.  Imo ECM and UKMO Would/could lead to heights developing to the NE with undercut scenario.  
 

BFTP

 

 

130DAAD8-22FF-4312-860E-00372683DE68.gif

A657A662-33D7-4935-937A-D3A57003E3DF.gif

7EE2D38A-48DB-4CB2-BE60-E763E61533CB.png

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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GFS 00Z

If anyone doesnt get something from this on Sunday - yes Sunday - (that's not FI) - we may as well all give up :unsure2:

h500slp.png

uksnowrisk.png

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Lots of uncertainty around Christmas period with the charts.Met office also saying a small chance of cold dry

weather possible,very interesting model watching coming up.Will pressure rise over U.K. /Scandinavia or

continue with the unsettled theme.

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29 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

GFS 00Z

If anyone doesnt get something from this on Sunday - yes Sunday - (that's not FI) - we may as well all give up :unsure2:

h500slp.png

uksnowrisk.png

Being from a location right in the centre pivot of those red/purple colours at 200m above sea level, and having had experience of these marginal setups so many times before I must say I'm not overly convinced just yet

To me that chart is massively overdoing the snow 'level' and it would probably only be the high ground above 200-300m that would get anything in the way of snow accumulating (though perhaps lowland places would see more in the way of sleet/wintryness)

Either way I'm pretty positive the chart is probably tricking us a bit - the turnout would be nothing like that

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8 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

image.thumb.png.d3c5201c948c2d730478e19bec987422.png

White out for Wales and the North Mids/Peak District

Here's the snow accumulation chart.

96-780UK_orv6.GIF

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10 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Being from a location right in the centre pivot of those red/purple colours at 200m above sea level, and having had experience of these marginal setups so many times before I must say I'm not overly convinced just yet

To me that chart is massively overdoing the snow 'level' and it would probably only be the high ground above 200-300m that would get anything in the way of snow accumulating (though perhaps lowland places would see more in the way of sleet/wintryness)

Either way I'm pretty positive the chart is probably tricking us a bit - the turnout would be nothing like that

6z brings the snow risk right down to low levels, but it does seem to have a snow bias since the 'upgrade'.

viewimage.png

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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

6z brings the snow risk right down to low levels, but it does seem to have a snow bias since the 'upgrade'.

viewimage.png

It's always had a snowy bias to it the risk of some snow is there for Saturday night but confidence is low. 

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19 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

6z brings the snow risk right down to low levels, but it does seem to have a snow bias since the 'upgrade'.

viewimage.png

Given there is such large differences between EC and GFS with Friday night's low track, Ec has it track across S England GFS across N England, wouldn't even consider snow potential as far away as early Sunday for now. 00z EC doesn't even show GFS's low for early Sun, though has a frontal wave or trough moving NE, which brings snow to Wales and N England for a time. This far off, could change ...

Edited by Nick F

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The ICON also toying with the risk. Not just the GFS that's latching onto this scenario. Although, others are less bullish. 

image.thumb.png.fcdd91811851cac9cd1b6a239507118e.png

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Poor outlook from the GFS, particularly when you look at the vortex and it’s not even very organised yet. Shows you just how many hurdles there is in the way of us getting any meaningful nationwide cold spells, so many pieces have to be just right.

295851BB-9CEC-4578-90FE-D67C0AB1BCC4.png

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Mid to long term the models and ensembles are a bit clueless at the moment. Plenty of cold options on the table though and much better than having the certainty of a Euro trash high and zonality ! 

Below 00z GFS Vs 06z - look at the difference over northern scandi!  

BD069F1F-E6EF-4A64-888A-64BBFEC03A20.png

0655CB67-537B-4C58-9092-ECCA6ED9942A.png

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image.thumb.png.a1492e079be3756b33f6238c7f6afb47.png

I Honestly wouldn't worry about this model any more - it is also showing a Bartlett in month 4-6 - are we really going to have a Westerly right the way out to next June???

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Very fluid nhp ATM without any real strong PV.very difficult to nail down anything after 7-9 days imo.gfs 6z being the example

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3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

If only it was that simple..

EC mean is not pretty viewing TBH..

image.thumb.png.54e68182782982364558679f460dbd67.png

That ruddy energy spilling across the Atlantic just won't let go..

The EC mean a couple of weeks ago was showing cold favoured option with potential.

That didn't work out too well.

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The variety run to run in GFS FI really does not suggest any cold for the UK till around Christmas. It is probably looking at major changes as we head towards the New Year. The stark differences in just one run on the GFS op just after D10:

0z:1783087380_gfsnh-0-300(6).thumb.png.de7dff7da36a65509a603bb08354ab4b.png06z181306353_gfsnh-0-288(5).thumb.png.2ba561e23e157d55e91e026a52de8b3f.pngSpread 0z:gensnh-22-1-360.thumb.png.a65a8f81ab9d0a5c3da8fb8071baf7ce.png

The spread on the GFS 0z highlighted this^^^.

At least we are seeing a Possible Pacific wave after D10.  At the moment we see a signal in FI of chaos op wise so getting to a possible solution would be a good step, then we can go forward from there. The late FI from the 0z and 06z:

gfseu-0-348.thumb.png.9ff2de548152c687ddf5ad0e24b9ab4c.png107114922_gfseu-0-336(1).thumb.png.4e40f7c7878130021c94e58ea03faab5.png

Again no sign of tPV becoming the driver (as noted by other posters).

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A small step in the 'right' direction? One might even be able to partake of a game of Hunt The Sleet Blob...A game for all the family?:unsure2:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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