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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

In what way, please, if you are able to say?

Referring to the GEFS, the specifics are not the important matter, its the chaos they show. Each ensemble has a slightly altered starting position and in recent runs the GEFS have been relatively benign in FI. The 12z GEFS at T240 showed wild fluctuations and they expanded on those in FI. I suspect this chaos is from a background signal introduced into that dataset. The outputs are chaotic, so meaningless at the moment.

If the ECM ensembles have picked this up as well, it is worth watching as to a pattern change. Of course, it could be a ghost in the machine, and it may or may not benefit the UK if indeed a change, but certainly for most of us the current GFS and ECM op output is underwhelming after the weekend.

Tomorrow is another day as they say!

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6 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Richard

yes I do, and the UKMO model has been edging and edging colder over recent days, and that’s the one I’ll go with, couple more days too for further small steps.  
 

BFTP

Hi Fred,

Great to hear from you and it's good to be back.

Yes and what a wild period of weather. Snow at times over this week.

R

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Incidentally here's the 3:4 index...

I'll be back later for some more data/analysis for precursors/blocking/hemisphere notions...as we drift to Christmas...bundles for optimising!

nino34 (1).png

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9 minutes ago, IDO said:

Referring to the GEFS, the specifics are not the important matter, its the chaos they show. Each ensemble has a slightly altered starting position and in recent runs the GEFS have been relatively benign in FI. The 12z GEFS at T240 showed wild fluctuations and they expanded on those in FI. I suspect this chaos is from a background signal introduced into that dataset. The outputs are chaotic, so meaningless at the moment.

If the ECM ensembles have picked this up as well, it is worth watching as to a pattern change. Of course, it could be a ghost in the machine, and it may or may not benefit the UK if indeed a change, but certainly for most of us the current GFS and ECM op output is underwhelming after the weekend.

Tomorrow is another day as they say!

Yes I know all that as you well know.  I was asking @bluearmy if he could share any info on the ECM ensembles position on things.  Let's leave it there.

Edited by Mike Poole

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33 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

In what way, please, if you are able to say?

The paywall model I use has a feature which shows variation run to run and there’s too much going on for my liking .......I don’t think specifics are particularly important given what we’re discussing at 10/14 days .....

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ICON 18z at T120

image.thumb.jpg.3067e4183d3cff9209ca578651c2512a.jpg

Is or just me or is this getting more amplified day by day?  Uncertainty reigns for me, many possibilities, and plenty to discuss as things become clearer...

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z at T120

image.thumb.jpg.3067e4183d3cff9209ca578651c2512a.jpg

Is or just me or is this getting more amplified day by day?  Uncertainty reigns for me, many possibilities, and plenty to discuss as things become clearer...

Definitely mike...angular momentum on our side I think!!

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euro4 forecast 5km temps later tomorrow into -34/-38

 

image.thumb.png.317bdf6d407aa86b9d93876a3fa6ca02.pngimage.thumb.png.9459df8161564a43154bb3e83b03798a.png

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As I always say best just look at the models up to the reliable usually 120-144 hrs tops, and with this range in mind, it remains a predominantly very unsettled outlook, bands of heavy rain with some wintry precipitation down to fairly low levels in the north at times, all brought on by very strong westerly/northwesterly winds. Cold in the north as well, with sub 528 dam air and thicknesses around -3-4 degree mark, which as I say is enough to bring snow down to quite low levels, but unlikely to stick for any length of time below about 250 metres. 

Further south, temps closer to average slightly above, with any snow reserved for very highest ground only.

All very normal for mid December.

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31 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z at T120

image.thumb.jpg.3067e4183d3cff9209ca578651c2512a.jpg

Is or just me or is this getting more amplified day by day?  Uncertainty reigns for me, many possibilities, and plenty to discuss as things become clearer...

If only it would push east a bit we would be right in the game

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Pacific arm...into locked polar heights...Russian waa..into hand shake..

Leaving ample reduction in loose vortice /Atlantic...

The door becomes ever ajar...for blocking holding placement...

Eastern Euro/Greenland entry....more than feasible!!

gfsnh-0-102.png

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How is the snow potential for the weekend on 18z!!still there or all gone?

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3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Pacific arm...into locked polar heights...Russian waa..into hand shake..

Leaving ample reduction in loose vortice /Atlantic...

The door becomes ever ajar...for blocking holding placement...

Eastern Euro/Greenland entry....more than feasible!!

gfsnh-0-102.png

Yes, interesting run this one. Pub run T138:

image.thumb.jpg.48974760801b64cffb7cd2d193be51f7.jpg

Interesting  synoptics developing,I think we might see much more of that southerly jet, for better or worse!!

Quote

 

 

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24 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

As I always say best just look at the models up to the reliable usually 120-144 hrs tops, and with this range in mind, it remains a predominantly very unsettled outlook, bands of heavy rain with some wintry precipitation down to fairly low levels in the north at times, all brought on by very strong westerly/northwesterly winds. Cold in the north as well, with sub 528 dam air and thicknesses around -3-4 degree mark, which as I say is enough to bring snow down to quite low levels, but unlikely to stick for any length of time below about 250 metres. 

Further south, temps closer to average slightly above, with any snow reserved for very highest ground only.

All very normal for mid December.

In line with both the Met office and BBC weathers thinking.

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

How is the snow potential for the weekend on 18z!!still there or all gone?

Further north. 

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possible WAA west of UK as we head into low res...

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Here is the Rampling special, never very far from the mark with his predictions is he.

image.thumb.png.2019edc3018b63cddeec046f25a5bb73.png

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here is the Rampling special, never very far from the mark with his predictions is he.

image.thumb.png.2019edc3018b63cddeec046f25a5bb73.png

Some good Wave 2 on that. 

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3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Some good Wave 2 on that. 

Could do with it being sharper and further into pole.

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Could do with it being sharper and further into pole.

Ends that way, looks a bit like a classic with the trough dropping down east and the high toppling over it. If only it went further JFF. 

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