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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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Well it would be nice if that amplification around T144 could lead to some better options, and it does, and the pick of the 12z is the JMA, here at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.0bc264e6d54f71079b4c6c6ebc956071.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.65827a55f60ce6ec5ae4eb9f0739454b.jpg

I would rate this as plausible...wonder if this is the sort of scenario that @chris55 was alluding to earlier?

Edited by Mike Poole

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Both GFS and ECM keen at bringing pressure rise at 10 day plus range into Europe.If this high does build 

positioning will be crucial.And of course a big pattern change before Christmas May or may not bring

the white stuff in form of frosts.

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The dreaded Euro trash high at the end of the ECM,probably only time ECM FL verifies as well.

Miles away from anything cold if it comes of as shown.

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image.thumb.png.02fd8b238cd69425cf596fdabe46bc8d.pngthe euro4 model sees 0 iso into 0-500mtr later into the day

Edited by Dennis

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46 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Pass me the bucket 🤢 . Horrible end on the ECM

936C2C5A-2989-4C29-A0F9-4737F0F7CDA2.png

Praise the lord,some honesty!! You can only polish a turd for so long imo.great chart for a winter getaway tho😁pretty much nailed on that baby steps tho will bring an easterly from there 🙄🙄

Edited by swfc

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

WOW, great chart for NI,wales and scotland .For those of us in NW Eng you can see the deadly effects of the Irish sea ..

It's epic mate!🙄scratching around again isn't it tbh.meto outlook any good?

Edited by swfc

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This time of year I am starting to also focus on the Western Alps, for my annual Xmas ski trip.

Next week looks fairly nailed on toasty unfortunately. Following week still very much up for grabs though. Signs of a cool down starting to creep in (both here and there) around the Christmas day period.

A few juicy charts scattered in the ens, but in the interest of balance, how about this 06z chart to pretty much melt all the snow from this week's big dumpings in one day. Incredible warmth! 🤢

GFSP01EU06_264_1.thumb.png.67b9e10e5f3e9d573c93a69778ab8355.png

Fortunately very unlikely to occur like that! Hopefully...

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6 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

UKV snowscope for Wed/Thu/Sat.

1913764875_viewimage(96).thumb.png.cb28670afd731db893bc34d7ad102730.png149973990_viewimage(97).thumb.png.c66043632540c2192d944c2c0a423ce9.png191877550_viewimage(98).thumb.png.3ce5ac6dcf98bfd22ec80bd9a8a10418.png

Cheers mate thats cheered me up  !!

🙂

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Turning attention away from the mid range, what about this week?  Precipitation from the EURO4 up to T54, as with all Meteociel precipitation charts, white hatches mean snow!!

anim_uqw5.gif

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Dunno why everyone's panicking about longer range.

image.thumb.png.4ac93a27d60fef201e2fc8158ab92f8a.png

The GFS 12z control knows the score. Snow showers and cold on Xmas Day and a January 1987-style Scandi High for New Year. It's bound to happen of course!!!

Edited by LRD

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The gefs not looking too bad,maybe a short warm up but then a return towards around average later next week.  These for C.England.

graphe3_1000_269_91___.thumb.png.ef6db9e092b943cc0739ef12ab5e6680.pnggens-21-5-300.thumb.png.84e028157b019d0959651737466110f4.png

Later frames pushing any ridging away to the east.It still looks a mobile pattern,maybe not so strongly but with the mean jet still on a southerly track no sign of blowtorch south westerlies as yet.

gensnh-21-1-360.thumb.png.1599a95ad1039a13af4b6546db85920e.png

Still a tendency to Euro.troughing. 

 

 

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Arpege and Icon not making too much of Wednesday's snow. Although Arpege 12z hasn't come out - its still the 6z.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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11 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

The gefs not looking too bad,maybe a short warm up but then a return towards around average later next week.  These for C.England.

graphe3_1000_269_91___.thumb.png.ef6db9e092b943cc0739ef12ab5e6680.pnggens-21-5-300.thumb.png.84e028157b019d0959651737466110f4.png

Later frames pushing any ridging away to the east.It still looks a mobile pattern,maybe not so strongly but with the mean jet still on a southerly track no sign of blowtorch south westerlies as yet.

gensnh-21-1-360.thumb.png.1599a95ad1039a13af4b6546db85920e.png

Still a tendency to Euro.troughing. 

 

 

Purples moving away from Greenland too. Still blobs of heights in the arctic going by that mean

It ain't looking brilliant for cold but it could also be far worse. Decembers 2013-16 and 2018 were far more boring and unpromising

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After looking at all the output today I'd be confident in saying that the outlook looks average.after looking threw the last five pages I can see the need for something festive is pretty obv.barring some wintry weather over higher ground I can't see anything out of the ordinary.just seen a post of Steve murr on an EC chart saying day 11-12 would be epic?? I thought today's posts generall consensus was that fi was 144 max? Big respect to Steve but he could post a real sausage roll and it would max out on likes.in all honestly there's nothing on the nhp that looks remotely wintry imo.high level routes would show otherwise and will but for Joe public??

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On 05/12/2019 at 22:27, Mr Frost said:

All GFS runs are like a dog with a bone at the moment with regards to a risk of snowfall across parts of the UK and Ireland next week. (midweek onwards especially - not solely for high ground)

17F56EB0-CA19-4DFB-9774-0F3CFF381F2A.thumb.png.ae0f72fe5db2a720ad4a610d77b95920.png
07DAE585-CF4B-4641-94A6-271D6FD89268.thumb.png.3ac5164052b928e4aa8629c6bd19c273.png

I am leaving it at that...enough model/chart viewing for one day! 😀

Surely the much laughed at GFS 18z (pub run) has not called the precipitation type/distribution of any snowfall at such a distance away? (See quoted post above) 😂😉🎅 
We shall see - higher hills/mountains definitely on for a light to moderate cover. (Low levels...who knows!) 

Also a stormy old day tomorrow for many of us - looking at 60mph + gusts around these parts. (West coast of Scotland)

224457C4-269F-4226-832C-E92D6E1B7738.thumb.png.e29137a6dae144f37de45f42769b6209.pngDEE55C4D-5EFB-48CA-BBE9-7B25BF33E0B4.thumb.png.8fe2a02b762f897f57fb573c7f875452.pngDD9F9977-C573-41ED-BC5C-779C7BBE08FC.thumb.png.876ba182d28b6d3291836e8d525e2f1b.png

Wild day tomorrow with all types of weather thrown in - can’t say it’s boring that’s for sure! (Nothing compared to what is going to hit Iceland though - hurricane force winds and 100cm to 200cm of snow expected in the North of the country 😮)
 

Have a good night everyone!

Edited by Mr Frost

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27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Arpege and Icon not making too much of Wednesday's snow. Although Arpege 12z hasn't come out - its still the 6z.

12z Arpege is out. 

EUROPE_RAIN1_50.thumb.jpg.7e1bf1f1780ded52af7f4d0c123606f9.jpg

EUROPE_RAIN1_52.thumb.jpg.713614e8dcde934326f6122bb37d92c9.jpg

Looked at the snow chart and its Not interested in snow for Wednesday. 

Edited by jordan smith

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ICON 18z out now, only goes to T120, here for comparison with 12z, 18z left:

image.thumb.jpg.6c391cf035761acafa64fa1b877d50c2.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7fa6d749e68ed39181d800d14e794635.jpg

Looks more amplified to me, look in particular at the developing low east US, considerably deeper on 18z.

Edited by Mike Poole

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z out now, only goes to T120, here for comparison with 12z, 18z left:

image.thumb.jpg.6c391cf035761acafa64fa1b877d50c2.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7fa6d749e68ed39181d800d14e794635.jpg

Looks more amplified to me, look in particular at the developing low east US, considerably deeper on 18z.

Sorry Mike but was is your point the low being deeper?is it a waa thing tia

Edited by swfc

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1 minute ago, swfc said:

Sorry Mike but was is your point the low being deeper?is it a was thing tia

Not sure I quite understand the question as worded, but for clarity, I was referring to the low east US, 995 mb on 18z run, which should increase amplification and WAA going forward, if the run went further.

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Not sure I quite understand the question as worded, but for clarity, I was referring to the low east US, 995 mb on 18z run, which should increase amplification and WAA going forward, if the run went further.

Sorry was should have read waa

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Still no sign of a quick route to snowy nirvana, week 2 still indicating a rise of pressure to our east/south east. Again with the jetstream weakening there is scope for potentially a large and robust anticyclone to set up east of the UK towards Christmas. I must admit again the best we could hope for is a surface chill to develop, however enough amplitude on that ridge may have ramifications down the line and ultimately the evolution beyond day 10 is probably going to take the highest amount of interest. 

Before then, it looms quite unsettled and chilly with a strong jet with a series of fronts moving through with the risk of snow over higher ground, especially in the north. 

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Looking pretty stormy for all tomorrow and particularly wet for West Wales and northwestern parts of the country including Western Scotland with significant amounts of rain for these areas.

A blend of a few high resolution charts for this overview.

Worth noting this chart over does drizzle light rain, there will be a distinct drier slot between the warm and cold front albeit very cloudy with drizzly bits and pieces. 

Winds begin strong for Western parts with gusts as high as 70mph for the Irish Sea and for Western coasts of Scotland with the warm front already moving into the far west by morning winds light for Eastern and southeastern areas to start the day. 

Wind gusts.. 👇

UK_GUST_11.thumb.jpg.cdc80923f79a1aa7fc4ac7f99b40effd.jpg85741864_UK_GUST_13(1).thumb.jpg.bab0af6ce5974e9f27df558f79127c09.jpg

Rainfall..👇

UK_RAINSNOW_11.thumb.jpg.aeabef37f044cfbea3432a9ebdd83b0f.jpgUK_RAINSNOW_15.thumb.jpg.315769ad1052e6d278290c214f18d4b3.jpg

The warm front then moves across the country during the morning into the early afternoon some quite heavy bursts mixed in with a milder sector in between the warm front and the very active cold front to the west, winds strengthen quickly for all throughout the morning with gales in a few places particularly in exposure and over hills in particular of Wales and northwest England. 

UK_GUST_17.thumb.jpg.256e915a202d354aa93153dc2c572e16.jpgUK_RAINSNOW_18.thumb.jpg.4a6283cc04b1c35c299889514a0864a3.jpg

During the afternoon the cold front moves through the rest of the country, this will likely be squally in nature with some torrential rain for a short period in some spots winds continue strengthening with gusts widely inland of 40-50mph by mid afternoon, they may pick up just above 50mph for a short time in association with that cold front as it moves through making for some tricky driving conditions. 

UK_GUST_19.thumb.jpg.30b8f7d369c80531d80f4af3a40d6fb2.jpgUK_GUST_21.thumb.jpg.8903a57cf57647cbbcd998a5ee67bcbe.jpg

101337372_UK_GUST_23(1).thumb.jpg.3bc952598f483282ac51cf76182863ce.jpg

Behind this the winds abate very quickly with a noticeable clearance in cloud cover taking place with a marked drop in temperature as you'd expect. 🙂

UK_RAINSNOW_23.thumb.jpg.8c83ec98f17ecbf2c06f9a1a4c4b49f8.jpgUK_RAINSNOW_25.thumb.jpg.a7a505728f4eb78a82d8e69ad71b508f.jpg

UK_ACLOUD_26.thumb.jpg.b928bdb673d1a5f75bd61b3de9b9ed44.jpgUK_ACLOUD_28.thumb.jpg.8631ccd95eaba27270b07ad308009f21.jpgUK_ACLOUD_29.thumb.jpg.1172b10c4a5dd474c872560ee20b9c42.jpgUK_ACLOUD_30.thumb.jpg.71a743fda3e8aa7e1c86b53e5440030f.jpg

Edited by jordan smith

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