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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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The problem is, rightly or wrongly, it’s the axis that is changing from NW-SE to NE-SW during week#2, so energy sent south will only likely serve to pump warm uppers into Europe. Hopefully only a blip, although the CFS V2 charts for the next 4 weeks aren’t so sure...

On the plus side, the 18z was a slight improvement with a nudge towards the euros mid term.

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If ever i have seen a solar min vortex and jetstream signature that is it, just get the feeling this is gonna keep happening, seems like we will continue the hard luck stories unless we get a cross polar flow, only thing that will drive that is an SSW, forget that until mid Jan at the very earliest - gutted - so near yet so far.

I suppose we can seek solace from the fact that the majority of Europe is also going to be suffering the same bland mildness as we are, albeit a bit drier, so it's not like we are right on the edge of something special happening so nearby. Our short term best bets for cold air really are from between west and north!

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4 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

The problem is, rightly or wrongly, it’s the axis that is changing from NW-SE to NE-SW during week#2, so energy sent south will only likely serve to pump warm uppers into Europe. Hopefully only a blip, although the CFS V2 charts for the next 4 weeks aren’t so sure...

On the plus side, the 18z was a slight improvement with a nudge towards the euros mid term.

Don't you mean SW-NE s4lancia!

i would bite your arm off if it was NE-SW😁

Edited by Allseasons-si

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1 minute ago, MP-R said:

I suppose we can seek solace from the fact that the majority of Europe is also going to be suffering the same bland mildness as we are, albeit a bit drier, so it's not like we are right on the edge of something special happening so nearby. Our short term best bets for cold air really are from between west and north!

Yes that is what i mean by cross polar ridging, even if we got an E'ly it would be crap so we need a chunk of vortex into E Europe first, forget a Greeny we have missed that chance with the strat now recovering from the displacement.

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Well, tonight's sucker punch to the trop vortex comes from the east??   At the moment, doesn't matter where they come from, pub run T252

image.thumb.jpg.f2124187d31a7841a808bab0bb42c624.jpg

Keep beating that  reeling vortex up guys...

Edited by Mike Poole

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11 minutes ago, snowray said:

Horror show!😝

gfseu-0-210.png

gfseu-1-210.png

That is an absolute joke. The East Greenland area has been devoid of a proper high pressure for 9 winters now. There has to be a cause to this that no-one knows of yet.

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7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Don't you mean SW-NE s4lancia!

i would bite your arm off if it was NE-SW😁

Well yes. ‘Positively’ tilted then. Which is of course negative for us 😬

Edited by s4lancia

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13 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Ok i have just put my 50p in the meter 

the fact is that no model will be accurate at five days,they might be near but not spot on,from five days> the goal post's get smaller and smaller as in terms of accuracy,so people righting off the rest of Dec and for the rest of winter needs to calm down because it's only 8th DEC,most cold spells happen after Christmas with the exception of 2009/10

right....back to the models 

the latest from the eps/gefs 500mb and 850's at day ten are in harmony with trough extension in the Atlantic exiting NE seaboard with heights eastern Europe/Western Russia joining forces with the Arctic high,gefs to a lesser extent

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.bc1e9dfc08cd3c70fd6380221e0a502c.pngecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.thumb.png.834faa9ae0650f4702c5357a3466ce72.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.2b85297d8b59a9df89c8a840a3a93a1e.pnggfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.103451d10bfe59c6caa6558373424f9a.png

EDH101-240.thumb.gif.5fe0633f38f56f9ac26ada4b0eba1c12.gifgensnh-21-5-240.thumb.png.aa87abbf19f3c2b5bd7b229f8f88e084.png

the cpc in the same room

814day_03.thumb.gif.04814c3845580e138b1069a39ab4ff00.gif

so an unsettled week coming up thanks to a strong jet extension firing lows at us but maybe signs of settling down later but that's not for me to judge right now

what will happen after next week?

we will never know.

 

I don't think anyone is writing winter of at all!!! Commenting on the output as it comes out is what you do isn't it.id agree Jan Feb prime months for cold but if EC showed an easterly at ten days this place would go mad!!! I'm not one for selective time scales depending on the weather type being forecast.imo I'd be likely to suggest over the next 7-10 days will be generally unsettled and cool but not anything unusuall.i guess the pros at the met would pick up any major change on the way but I don't profess to know that it being beyond my pay scale.anyway 18z carries on the same route unsettled 

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9 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

That is an absolute joke. The East Greenland area has been devoid of a proper high pressure for 9 winters now. There has to be a cause to this that no-one knows of yet.

Well, how about HAARP over in Alaska? 😱 🤪

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11 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

That is an absolute joke. The East Greenland area has been devoid of a proper high pressure for 9 winters now. There has to be a cause to this that no-one knows of yet.

Tbh they are a rare beast esp this early in winter.think the exception being either 09-10.ssw may provide the goods but mid -late winter imo.the bed Siberian high in my time was Jan 87 but I think them days have passed

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5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

That is an absolute joke. The East Greenland area has been devoid of a proper high pressure for 9 winters now. 

archivesnh-2018-2-28-12-0.thumb.png.16e04531bcfadd49382f98940bc7964a.png and if you look at the Greenland blocking index the other month that sticks out is December 2012 but other months were also within the positive range (albeit low) https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/gbi.mon.data

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23 minutes ago, swfc said:

I don't think anyone is writing winter of at all!!! Commenting on the output as it comes out is what you do isn't it.id agree Jan Feb prime months for cold but if EC showed an easterly at ten days this place would go mad!!! I'm not one for selective time scales depending on the weather type being forecast.imo I'd be likely to suggest over the next 7-10 days will be generally unsettled and cool but not anything unusuall.i guess the pros at the met would pick up any major change on the way but I don't profess to know that it being beyond my pay scale.anyway 18z carries on the same route unsettled 

Most certainly and there is nothing wrong with that,i myself get carried away when i see nivana charts at t 300+,who wouldn't😜 but it's all JJF unless there is a strong trend and a consistency in fl but that is a rarity

the point that is was trying to get across is that fl more likely than not is 144>,then after that is trend territory.

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

archivesnh-2018-2-28-12-0.thumb.png.16e04531bcfadd49382f98940bc7964a.png and if you look at the Greenland blocking index the other month that sticks out is December 2012 but other months were also within the positive range (albeit low) https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/gbi.mon.data

How we all dream of such a chart... I've been lurking over the last week, not much comment other than slight frustration with some of the one-upmanship and bickering here today. 

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47 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If ever i have seen a solar min vortex and jetstream signature that is it, just get the feeling this is gonna keep happening, seems like we will continue the hard luck stories unless we get a cross polar flow, only thing that will drive that is an SSW, forget that until mid Jan at the very earliest - gutted - so near yet so far.

Yes, there is a -NAO pattern that is trying to fight the increasing power of the trop/strat vortices...which I believe is the low solar pattern that has manifested in earnest since May. 

Unfortunately, the Pacific pattern just isn't playing ball at the moment.

Next winter we ideally want to see the N Pacific cooler and a pronounced ENSO signature, though not a 'strong' one.

Edited by CreweCold

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Something of nothing maybe, but the small ESB ridge caught my eye towards the end of the 18z. Helped to keep southerly heights further out west on this run anyway. Will see if it has any legs or not in the coming days..

A1274308-5122-4534-8826-A5FB58FECA39.thumb.png.b211bbd0ac766d07d51c86494da4985a.png

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From day ten on the gefs ens,there are more and more members trying to build pressure to our NE than the 12z

not getting carried away,honest!!!

Edited by Allseasons-si

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4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

From day ten on the gefs ens,there are more and more members trying to build pressure to our NE than the 12z

not getting carried away,honest!!!

20 the best - that would feel bone chillingly cold.

image.thumb.png.ef09c1269b6fde410aeefc48438ce8a0.png

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22 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, there is a -NAO pattern that is trying to fight the increasing power of the trop/strat vortices...which I believe is the low solar pattern that has manifested in earnest since May. 

Unfortunately, the Pacific pattern just isn't playing ball at the moment.

Next winter we ideally want to see the N Pacific cooler and a pronounced ENSO signature, though not a 'strong' one.

Good point crewe, but next winter!!! Good lord we are only a week into this one, and my stress levels are maxed out.... Without hoping for better news next year. Next year... The year after... I'm sure someone will come along to say.... Things still not in our favour... Solar minimum!!! At this rate we are gonna need a no sun at all to give us a proper cold snap. 

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Certainly some interesting GEFS members showing up this evening. Nothing is in the bag yet for Christmas, that’s for sure.

I still think the solar min effect on the jet to be further south than normal is not fully factored in to the models. Ergo, standard default zonal should not be assumed in these situations.

Clearly we have a period of predominantly Atlantic weather to get through first though. And that will rightly make the weather headlines this coming week.

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Seems like a bit of a while since I've seen a set of GEFS ensembles with that sort of agreement (or at least non-scatter) up until right at the end of the run

image.thumb.png.3ebfd00caa1f6717ca57d4ec79d2e5ca.png

I'm forgetting that Atlantic dominated periods are often pretty easy for it to deal with..!

 

After a peak around D11/12 though they do show signs of cooling back off towards the average though - beyond that anything could happen

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Couple of low ones on the London graph at the end - no pipe-bursters but cold.

image.thumb.png.d9c74a502afbcc98e1c3aa31baefc0e2.png

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17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

20 the best - that would feel bone chillingly cold.

image.thumb.png.ef09c1269b6fde410aeefc48438ce8a0.png

It's certainly plausible looking at the animated version

anim_xxj9.thumb.gif.fec181036685d0675df61f304fcbaeaa.gifanim_yzb2.thumb.gif.3d2135d5478ff1fe09dea904696223b2.gif

block developing to our NE as per some of the ens stopping the Atlantic in it's tracks

i would take the stella and cobra runs in there.

graphe3_1000_266_27___.thumb.png.1d62ee4d47d820f07b7369b4c150e203.png

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Couple of low ones on the London graph at the end - no pipe-bursters but cold.

image.thumb.png.d9c74a502afbcc98e1c3aa31baefc0e2.png

There is a lot of pipe smokers in there too Feb😜

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Look at those thicknesses. Much less purple to go around

0Z

image.thumb.png.8fb4db9c569e8cf7351fb9a95fb6b7ca.png

18Z

image.thumb.png.4abf805b5032899e9806f3fb6e79d728.png

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