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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

It's a good Question however I don't think a 1 day slush fess is going to satisfy the Majority of cold lovers in here.

C.S

Agreed. Although a one day slush fest would probably be better than what many on here had last winter.

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1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

It was in a north westerly (polar maritime) flow. Delivered a good few cm of snow, which all melted by morning. 18th January 2019.

We even got a few cm here the previous evening but was melting after midnight,bath much furth west got a fair bit more,so you don't need minus 15 uppers to get a covering of snow,even living by the sea,lol

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Quiet on here.

Close to a decent run from the ICON, wedge of HP near Iceland, can the trough push a bit further south, lots of cold air ready to move in too, just into northern Scotland for now?

iconeu-0-180.png

iconeu-1-180.png

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7 hours ago, MattStoke said:

I saw heavy snow at 146 m with -2’C 850s last winter.

The further away from the Irish sea the better. 🙂

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UKMO at 120 is looking good, big difference from the 0z

image.thumb.png.28e2a434edac1814c13af127cb01abea.png

GFS quite different at the same time

image.thumb.png.27ac9c245934b50a74463fa81c00f804.png

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Comparing UKMO 120 today to 144 yday and some definite differences for the better;

More pressure from the high situated E Europe/Russia. 

trough deeper and further west over UK.

arctic high a little bit more prominent on the 120  chart from today too. 

 

 

8D5A7779-1FDE-496D-ADEC-A8CF31B735F0.gif

86BF1B74-1952-4A7B-82FC-9BA5AF7A4818.gif

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Well it's not particularly exciting for us, but at 180 the PV is looking ragged to say the least.  As long as this remains the case, I for one will be quite content.

image.thumb.png.b353fa499988826e318817f4a3c1ddfb.png

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generally better  areas of heighths be it weak towards Greenland and far north.have to say tho the strat thread isn't for the squeamish in regard to the pv hitting the droids

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The long-wave pattern appears to be relatively locked in up to D9 and the GFS now showing consistency there. For the UK looking like a Scand-Atlantic trough with the UK on the milder side of the cold:

gfseu-0-180.thumb.png.35500d594ba0bcfccd4b62efc285c875.png362638404_gfseu-1-174(1).thumb.png.cdac6a469c396eccedb7699fb3491fc3.png

Pretty much what you do not want went lots of cold pushed south, the Atlantic is where you want to go for the cold. On the 06z late in FI we got a further Atlantic trough but displaced further west with the UK under even milder SW'ly flow. We shall see if the 12z in FI shows consistency?

Edited by IDO

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On the face of it things look pretty bleak as we enter a spell of wet and windy weather next week with no sign of blocking at all but a chink of light, other than those up North catching a wintry shower, is that there will be a lull as we enter the second half of December and as the deep complex trough that brought us the previous stormy unsettled spell begins to fill there will be a small window of opportunity for a change of pattern during this lull as heights over Greenland temporarily rise and an upstream Atlantic ridge attempts to thwart the flow.

Currently the models are firing the jet up once again, albeit on a Southerly track, and bring a renewed vigour to the zonal flow but if we do see big changes then we can expect them to show up between 16th and 19th Dec.

Otherwise we will likely see a less cool/cold zonal flow taking hold and milder temps in the run up to Christmas with any hope in the coming days of a wintry Christmas showing in deepest FI.

The MetO forecast certainly favours the latter scenario but I'll be keeping one eye on said period for signs of hope 🙂

Edited by Mucka

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Further to last post. Comparing day 6 on the GFS and UKMO.

Stronger high to the east on UKMO.

Lower heights further west in Southern Europe too - over Italy on UKMO. Hopefully suppressing a build of euro heights as large as GFS does post 144. 
 
Slightly higher heights to north and north west of UK

Wonder if we could get a link up between the arctic high and high out east as this ticks closer too?

13A16EA5-334E-4717-B368-E9C71880E917.png

36CD0321-6B82-4EE2-A581-243C7A4BA87C.gif

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Just watching the 12z runs unfold, as you do.  Nothing really eye catching that might bring cold or snow in the reliable, so no change there.  But the trop vortex doesn't have its s**t together as far as I can see....GFS T222:

image.thumb.jpg.d34127940b0023e14583d1122b58cadc.jpg

You can see the mangled vortex, but this chart also looks very odd to the NW doesn't it?

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euro heighths showing there hand again 0n the 12z be it fi.guess its a case of suck it and see going forward.unsettled and cool imo

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3 minutes ago, swfc said:

euro heighths showing there hand again 0n the 12z be it fi.guess its a case of suck it and see going forward.unsettled and cool imo

Yep 😒 wouldn’t want to be writing a long term forecast in Italy based on the last 2 GFS runs  🤷🏻‍♂️

D757D22B-6B2D-4F1F-82F5-E3A8D022840A.png

20E4734E-9AB5-423D-8A3C-86BBA40CEA92.png

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Mentioned this morning how the new GFS in FI can over-amp the wedges and compared to the 0z certainly looks like that maybe an algorithm bias:

0z>>1736106211_gfsnh-0-300(4).thumb.png.2d9769b03be07f11048b3891fd1f46c2.png12z>>609164052_gfsnh-0-288(4).thumb.png.e50e9f92f4400b11cef2a7d2e138a7f9.png

Certainly worth a second thought when they start popping up and showing winter wonderlands?

Flatter upstream again on the 12z after D10 so more classic zonal as we head into the final third of December. With possible strat effects going the wrong way for cold then the 12z may not be a far cry from what we should expect.

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Yep 😒 wouldn’t want to be writing a long term forecast in Italy based on the last 2 GFS runs  🤷🏻‍♂️

D757D22B-6B2D-4F1F-82F5-E3A8D022840A.png

20E4734E-9AB5-423D-8A3C-86BBA40CEA92.png

But they are completely and utterly different from a north hemisphere point of view, so why the confidence in them?

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

But they are completely and utterly different from a north hemisphere point of view, so why the confidence in them?

think ido just covered this

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10 minutes ago, swfc said:

think ido just covered this

Edited by Mike Poole
Meant to send sticky note, deleted, moment past now

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Nice charts...For any time between March and October, that is!:shok:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Chance of verifying? Close to zero? Phew!!:clap:

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Day 12 snapshot of the NH in the ENS, look at the state of the PV - battered.

AB4ED872-6D60-41F0-84B4-79C274EB10F7.png

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16 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

But they are completely and utterly different from a north hemisphere point of view, so why the confidence in them?

Not sure if you quoted the wrong post? My post meant that it’s impossible to have any confidence  as they are completely different 🤷🏻‍♂️

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Nice charts...For any time between March and October, that is!:shok:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Chance of verifying? Close to zero? Phew!!:clap:

I'd say a fairly decent chance of verifying seeing as the set up looks pretty identical to the longer range anomaly maps. This winter is going to be one long hard slog I think.

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I note IDO's post count is rocketing so always a sign things are looking bleak 😄

Anyway, noticeable differences between GFS/UKMO this evening so with that in mind i would caution against the super zonal GFS op for now-

GFS12Z @120

image.thumb.png.2b4de2438cde2b5ee876ed4656062560.png

UKMO 120-

image.thumb.png.13c1ee873a27a3b7d55bc1024935029f.png

GFS 144

image.thumb.png.c0721fe5b1faa4b26857a2133322b661.png

UKMO 144

image.thumb.png.7806e71c74809f4927fce41d7f2d37b0.png

UKMO much better for the PM flow..

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13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I note IDO's post count is rocketing so always a sign things are looking bleak 😄

Anyway, noticeable differences between GFS/UKMO this evening so with that in mind i would caution against the super zonal GFS op for now-

GFS12Z @120

image.thumb.png.2b4de2438cde2b5ee876ed4656062560.png

UKMO 120-

image.thumb.png.13c1ee873a27a3b7d55bc1024935029f.png

GFS 144

image.thumb.png.c0721fe5b1faa4b26857a2133322b661.png

UKMO 144

image.thumb.png.7806e71c74809f4927fce41d7f2d37b0.png

UKMO much better for the PM flow..

Don’t think they have a clue atm tbh so should all be taken with a massive pinch of salt, let’s see how the next few days unfold and we will have a better idea how the weekend will be shaping up

fwiw I quite like the look of the ukmo 120

Edited by markw2680
Added

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