Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

Recommended Posts

FI ridge popping up on GFS as well, whether it amounts to anything in the coming days who knows but nice to see a small move away from relentless zonality

gfsnh-0-204.png?12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 144 same as ICON > cold polar flow developing for Election day...

CEA16789-6C42-4767-9B86-8FA586F3EAAD.thumb.png.03d65a4e732370b266d4863ef2453f30.png

Steve

i think that you should of waited until the 850's came out

UW144-7.thumb.gif.92b6b86082a5d47d6626fc6e61e25b46.gif

it did look a lot colder on that chart though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Mucka said:

FI ridge popping up on GFS as well, whether it amounts to anything in the coming days who knows but nice to see a small move away from relentless zonality

gfsnh-0-204.png?12

Yes Mucka

The jet stream is a lot more buckled on this run,baby steps😁

12z 204 v 06z 210

gfsnh-5-204.thumb.png.1a0a6365b46c1ad42e03cd49bfdabc5f.pnggfsnh-5-210.thumb.png.10ed0020fbb300960c4da36d222cae04.png

Edited by Allseasons-si

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still charts struggling with positioning of low pressure,but all look to be heading south.Most likely 

keeping uk in polar air. should know positioning of lows by Sunday regarding latter part of week

snow in Scotland and northern England,possibly later in south.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Och well, if it won't snow I'll take SW winds and uppers of nearly 10C. Though, that's even less likely to happen than next week's surprise snow fall!:oldgrin:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The control run looks to bring ridging up from the SW but that could be a precursor as to what could happen down the line.

gensnh-0-1-300.thumb.png.a54945029cea27a53196ed60475f2cb7.pnggensnh-0-0-300.thumb.png.61e96f0b2eb1a5f200cb00783fae932b.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The control run looks to bring ridging up from the SW but that could be a precursor as to what could happen down the line.

gensnh-0-1-300.thumb.png.a54945029cea27a53196ed60475f2cb7.pnggensnh-0-0-300.thumb.png.61e96f0b2eb1a5f200cb00783fae932b.png

Quite a few build a scandi high...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well well, plenty of FI interest here.

3FB1026F-1568-49B6-9949-678CD89BA75F.png

96BF5037-3099-41F9-9E80-D98B428AC924.png

8766695A-5569-4B9D-972B-D7C17982E6CE.png

335CD128-9E54-4F28-838B-0A75B6CBA9E0.png

6332FB8A-A602-448B-8693-FC778DC8785F.png

95F29B95-619C-43BD-9453-D8F38DF7DC9D.png

3BF0BB84-1B58-481A-999D-6B1AC22EB1FD.png

52743EB6-E717-4094-9DAC-2319555CD34C.png

4F748A6C-55F6-44C2-9FE4-ECF413CB83EA.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It looks a wild few days as the jet is over us.Strong winds with gusts to gale force are forecasted for places around the UK over the weekend and Tuesday and Thursday from just flicking quickly through the earlier GFS frames.

Transient snowfall can't be ruled out as the polar air cuts in behind the cold fronts but most likely as ever over higher levels but you never know with steep lapse rates we could get a brief surprise fall lower down anywhere.

A very wild and unsettled week to come though with frequent changes in air mass but never mild for long especially later in the week.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Quite a few build a scandi high...

To name a few

gensnh-1-1-348.thumb.png.3d0f9e94ef2215a46c41eeef2f1fe6b7.pnggensnh-2-1-348.thumb.png.a6c2874a9cdf0711c99fb85d3c059d68.pnggensnh-4-1-348.thumb.png.fae455a07295247e6eac66d7ece0f1d9.pnggensnh-5-1-348.thumb.png.e08e030ae54f9f9aa3540021dce66d29.pnggensnh-6-1-348.thumb.png.5ec4ee39158a10eb4d7097007f465621.pnggensnh-10-1-348.thumb.png.1a3251072adde5965f033200fccc7750.pnggensnh-12-1-348.thumb.png.8f9ef8187b7c3e163abf1b22b4a00c4e.pnggensnh-14-1-348.thumb.png.b5a30aa895bfe415ebdc4b6ee1645eef.pnggensnh-15-1-348.thumb.png.a6bb4bf76d53c9693ea96b15956d5068.png

and the gefs ens

graphe3_1000_261_27___.thumb.png.2317c9b0a9fed8dd8c128d19378e231a.png

op and control on the mild side towards the end.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS 12z op hopefully not a precursor to a pattern change.

JFF FIanim_khn5.gif

The Azores High displaced but replaced with an Atlantic trough/euro high combo; possibly the worse synoptic as we head from mid-December.

Clearly the tPV still remains fluid so hopefully a more "cold" pattern can develop mid-month. The GFS model suffering from high volatility after D9 currently so will need time to resolve FI.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You would have to say that is a cracking set relative to what expectations are at the moment - some sort of chance of snow from the NW flow and then at least a clustering showing proper blocking potential at the end.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This not what you want to see!!

It’s only a forecast but if this came anywhere near, I don’t like our chances of any cold weather 

4404D426-A865-4A1E-9C84-F510649A0C6E.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, fromey said:

This not what you want to see!!

It’s only a forecast but if this came anywhere near, I don’t like our chances of any cold weather 

4404D426-A865-4A1E-9C84-F510649A0C6E.jpeg

The trusted Gfs🤔hasnt covered itself in glory re its previous forecasts so far this year 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, fromey said:

This not what you want to see!!

It’s only a forecast but if this came anywhere near, I don’t like our chances of any cold weather 

4404D426-A865-4A1E-9C84-F510649A0C6E.jpeg

Good grief...

PV on steriods!!

GEFS were adament  the zonal winds would be dropping off last time i checked them.

😞

Edited by northwestsnow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, fromey said:

This not what you want to see!!

It’s only a forecast but if this came anywhere near, I don’t like our chances of any cold weather 

4404D426-A865-4A1E-9C84-F510649A0C6E.jpeg

Crikey ,just had a look at this ,right then I'm off ,  cant find the prozack ,im taking up mild mush spotting instead.    Right I'm back ,great posts today on  wards to the big guns at 7pm , very interesting synoptics looking ahead gang ,cheers .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Good grief...

PV on steriods!!

GEFS were adament  the zonal winds would be dropping off last time i checked them.

😞

This is just Indicating what we are seeing on the GFS output, nothing unusual really, if we see FI start to show something diff this graph can quickly change. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, fromey said:

This not what you want to see!!

It’s only a forecast but if this came anywhere near, I don’t like our chances of any cold weather 

4404D426-A865-4A1E-9C84-F510649A0C6E.jpeg

And that's without the sprouts !!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The gem finishes like the ecm did this morning although we know that the gem under-cooks the 850's

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.82f78c166dc87761d5dd820eeb88a296.pnggemnh-1-240.thumb.png.e68097c53f668e2d0ffc8d1539255825.png

so not a bad afternoon of runs really,over to you ECM...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gem finishes like the ecm did this morning although we know that the gem under-cooks the 850's

 

so not a bad afternoon of runs really,over to you ECM...

 

That is the best op chart of the day at that particular timeframe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...