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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Working a night shift tonight....

GFS halfway to UKMO 😮

And the roller coaster takes a bit of a dive!  Onwards and upwards but not having the UKMO on board was a concern.

Edited by Don

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

All roads lead to Rome...GFS T222 and the cold is right in, 

image.thumb.jpg.b01fd4640fd5aefcff031c1321e84a91.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3675c53e7d051ea0b32325e5209dad9f.jpg

 

Yep but very short cold snap can't afford the downgrades early on I'm afraid are this will be over in a blink of an eye.

gfs-0-252.png

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Gfs 18z completey fine..

Not all aspects of blocking are going to be eye catching run..2run..

And that's fully expected..the profile/genre [email protected] outbreak.

 

And tonight's top of the pack 00z..Will I'm sure hold further interest to say the least...

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2 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Yes hopefully trends the other way in the morning.. Still gets there in the end... Twitchy twitchy time.. 

Gets there for about a day we need the amplified option early on are this turns into toppler.

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Big swing on the 18z on GFS.pv looks to be blasting in at day 10 fi.only one run just like the 12z subject to change has ever!!!🙄

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1 minute ago, booferking said:

Yep but very short cold snap can't afford the downgrades early on I'm afraid are this will be over in a blink of an eye.

gfs-0-252.png

This does often happen with the models in the run up to cold snaps, though.  Impressive looking cold spells get downgraded to the point where one barely notices it south of the midlands.  Not saying that's necessarily the case next week, but need to be cautious.

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1 minute ago, booferking said:

Gets there for about a day we need the amplified option early on are this turns into toppler.

Definetly.. 

We wait and see. 

The only thing I would say is the GFS has a habit as we all know of blowing up the lows.. If that low remains shallow we get a better slider and a better ridge. 

If not we go again for the next chance 😂😜

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All variance of the same theme really

ie:-troughs/lows still disrupting on a NW>SE trajectory thanks to the Azures high still forecast to displace west/SW,while this continues then the same pattern will repeat

lol as i type the gfs in fl wants to send a Armageddon trough from the NW with heights building behind,this is fun to say the least.

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1 minute ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Hmm.. 

image.thumb.png.bdf47a614b9ecec3379036573fdbf2d3.png

All goes away too quickly here

It does on the 18z yes.probably has accurate has the 12 but folk dive in with snow storms,epic cold on one run.

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Dissappointing GFS IMO, if you want longetivy the dominos effects seemed to start at 144 when the pulse of high pressure is weaker than on the 12z, which in turn was weaker than the 6.

I fear once we get to the 0z GFS we may have another let down!

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Just now, ALL ABOARD said:

Definetly.. 

We wait and see. 

The only thing I would say is the GFS has a habit as we all know of blowing up the lows.. If that low remains shallow we get a better slider and a better ridge. 

If not we go again for the next chance 😂😜

Yep only one run but will be watching morning runs with fingers covering eyes.😅😅

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Just now, Weathizard said:

Dissappointing GFS IMO, if you want longetivy the dominos effects seemed to start at 144 when the pulse of high pressure is weaker than on the 12z, which in turn was weaker than the 6.

I fear once we get to the 0z GFS we may have another let down!

Because the 12z was at the extreme edge!! You can't be looking at day -ten and sixteen looking for snow depths.well you can if it floats your boat

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Dissappointing GFS IMO, if you want longetivy the dominos effects seemed to start at 144 when the pulse of high pressure is weaker than on the 12z, which in turn was weaker than the 6.

I fear once we get to the 0z GFS we may have another let down!

I'll go complete against that notion..with ensemble support too..

And have the 00z reliable suite upping the anti...

We shall but see !?

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image.thumb.png.8ab86b35513945d09a1175d68ffaf293.pngimage.thumb.png.a38634cd5ba940b7c941c6cd88606933.png

Well, technically, I suppose that's another way of getting a northerly...

Let's hope the GFS is having a bit of a wobble before reverting to type re: amplification on its next run, rather than the surprising option of the UKMO actually coming out on top at +144.  

Edited by weatherguy

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21 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I don't know about that booferking

they look pretty identical to me

850's.

gfsnh-1-192.thumb.png.ea8ab8320e09a0a2c43946e42e3f1852.pngECH0-192.thumb.gif.e1e244c51f3278cd1cfcde75e8b52149.gif

 

I believe the Eastern seaboard heights are crucial at this time. You can see it take effect up top❄🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿ECM has a start of a break but not the heights, odd.

Alaskan ridge/pacific heights 

Edited by icykev

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

All variance of the same theme really

ie:-troughs/lows still disrupting on a NW>SE trajectory thanks to the Azures high still forecast to displace west/SW,while this continues then the same pattern will repeat

lol as i type the gfs in fl wants to send a Armageddon trough from the NW with heights building behind,this is fun to say the least.

I couldn't agree more and I just wonder if it is a case of underestimating higher pressure and over developing lows again. Will be interesting to see where the op sits within the 18z ensembles. Nothing like a bit of early winter drama 😂. In any case still a wintry theme emerging just timings and exact details which will take some time to be resolved and run to run differences to be expected.  gfseuw-2-276.thumb.png.511c5cefb681847ce487c52e64b3c7eb.png  gfseuw-2-288.thumb.png.2c9668ff0b27b282113b89332d038fd8.png 

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5 minutes ago, Don said:

This does often happen with the models in the run up to cold snaps, though.  Impressive looking cold spells get downgraded to the point where one barely notices it south of the midlands.  Not saying that's necessarily the case next week, but need to be cautious.

We've seen it a hundred times and should be no surprise to experienced members. All decent cold spells over the last 10 years had proper heights to our North! Deep yellows not just light blues..

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18z is sobering tonight! However this run was in the ensembles and well the OPs were always on the extreme end throughout the day. Not bad but after the 12z it would be hard to upgrade!

This is why you can't go splurting that LRFs are looking to be ruined on the 3rd of December!

Edited by Snowman.

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Just another take on the general theme. Can't view eye candy every run. We're in a better place than we have for a few years imo,for cold.

I'm happy,steady as she goes.....

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It's getting too late to care, but those writing off winter are being naive, there is a more evidence in favour of a snowy winter than a not snowy one.  You'll notice I didn't say cold there, I think it will actually turn out on average across the country, well about average...

Anyway vortex incoming GFS 18z T300, do with it what you will!

image.thumb.jpg.32b873c9f05e2d213f66a7252bee4577.jpg

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Ignore the METO at your peril - maybe the overnighted will get on board but until it does we are always on shaky ground ..?!

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