Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[Mike Poole]

ICON 18z T120 compared to 12 at same time.

Looks better, angle of ridge, polar heights, and elongation of trough...but, my theme of the evening is uncertainty, there's lots of it, and even T120 may be FI. The models don't seem to be able to handle the shenanigans going on over the polar region, and it is crucial to what happens next.

[Duane S.]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z T120 compared to 12 at same time.

Looks better, angle of ridge, polar heights, and elongation of trough...but, my theme of the evening is uncertainty, there's lots of it, and even T120 may be FI. The models don't seem to be able to handle the shenanigans going on over the polar region, and it is crucial to what happens next.

Yep, agree. I am putting my hopes in the models struggling with the solar forced southerly jet stream, going against the more climatic norm, and with the polar heights.

We still shouldn’t rule out a SE diving jet over Christmas. As opposed to a balling ball low pumping up SWerlies. Very much an option still. 

[LRD]

22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z T120 compared to 12 at same time.

Looks better, angle of ridge, polar heights, and elongation of trough...but, my theme of the evening is uncertainty, there's lots of it, and even T120 may be FI. The models don't seem to be able to handle the shenanigans going on over the polar region, and it is crucial to what happens next.

I somewhat agree Mike and, if it wasn't for the METO outlook I'd be very interested, as from a north pole view it looks interesting. But despite the higher than normal pressure over the pole, the global jet stream looks pretty flat - even though, for us, it might track south of us from time to time

 

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Yep, agree. I am putting my hopes in the models struggling with the solar forced southerly jet stream, going against the more climatic norm, and with the polar heights.

We still shouldn’t rule out a SE diving jet over Christmas. As opposed to a balling ball low pumping up SWerlies. Very much an option still. 

Yes, that bit in bold is where I am too...which doesn't by and of itself mean snow for the UK if the models are wrong, but makes it more likely...it's also maybe a bias in the long range models too which is why this winter is so hard to forecast (apart from by the naysayers of course).  Still many options open for Christmas let alone the new year, we will see....

[swfc]

14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, that bit in bold is where I am too...which doesn't by and of itself mean snow for the UK if the models are wrong, but makes it more likely...it's also maybe a bias in the long range models too which is why this winter is so hard to forecast (apart from by the naysayers of course).  Still many options open for Christmas let alone the new year, we will see....

I wouldn't say there are "many"options for Christmas. Tbh.its only ten days away and I'd suspect the options are cool and wet or mild and wet.wind direction from a westerly quadrant.in those time scales I don't think a light northerly would bring much diff at surface level.all usual caveats and only my opinion .uto

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z has the main trop polar vortex as far away from us as is possible, T144:

Looks like a plaice to me...Wedge on but where will it go, T168:

The answer may be nowhere!  The main purple vortex is elsewhere at the moment, and we're fighting with the ridges over the scraps...and losing...for the moment...but as I said earlier T120 may be FI given the uncertainty...

 

Edited December 14, 2019 by Mike Poole

[swfc]

GFS 18z is trying to push things south pre 192 hrs.today I think the EC day ten is the best of a poor bunch on all models.i think the ukmo dosnt seem to be pushing things that extra mile given its so called prowess 

Edited December 14, 2019 by swfc

[Rocheydub]

Really unusual vortex organisation this year, so early in winter. One positive to climate change I was hoping for was colder winters... Think I'll throw a few more logs on the fire,  and buy a few cows!

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z has the main trop polar vortex as far away from us as is possible, T144:

Looks like a plaice to me...Wedge on but where will it go, T168:

The answer may be nowhere!  The main purple vortex is elsewhere at the moment, and we're fighting with the ridges over the scraps...and losing...for the moment...but as I said earlier T120 may be FI given the uncertainty...

 

Still, while the PV is this disorganised, we're in with a shout. Meanwhile, over here, my northern cousins are in with a shot of whiteness!

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

GFS 18z is trying to push things south pre 192 hrs.today I think the EC day ten is the best of a poor bunch on all models.i think the ukmo didn't seem to be pushing things that extra mile given its so called prowess 

I think that is because the uncertainty that the models can't resolve is before all that, would want to see consensus at T120/T144 before making any further predictions.

[swfc]

18z GFS  is gone at 192 hrs heighths again to the south kicking in.those southern heighths are a real ball breaker.the PV can be weak but you won't get the jet south while the nhp continues like that!!!

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think that is because the uncertainty that the models can't resolve is before all that, would want to see consensus at T120/T144 before making any further predictions.

I'd agree to a degree but you could be saying a consensus at 120-144 could go on till Feb if you'd expect them all to be the same.time will tell

Edited December 14, 2019 by swfc

[abruzzi spur]

Shaping hemi... forms to await as we gain

waa takes up tick in clickety clock ricket stoppety clock.  Last years a SECOND HAND... flusted bush but now it's Omega/Rolex timing to the spot just need to squeeze 

Patients 

 

[Mike Poole]

Last from me tonight, the JMA at T264 and with power to add...

Look it isn't right here (not JMA! but model output generally) for UK coldies, we all know that, but equally it isn't all right for the trop polar vortex, stalemate at best...what we look for now is a way to break that stalement, in our favour...and I remain hopeful up to and until every ensemble member points a barrel PV with jet stream aimed straight at us.  A butterfly can affect  the weather, yes,  but I can't even see Boris Johnson flapping his arms and a winter long mild-fest taking place.  That said my prediction of the election was incorrect!

Edited December 14, 2019 by Mike Poole

[swfc]

Wow think the meds are missing tonight night gang and keep the faith !!!!

[Duane S.]

Nothing barnstorming for the U.K. from tonight’s 18z, but this is not yet a done deal for Christmas period.

12z

18z

 

[Sweatyman]

20 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

Shaping hemi... forms to await as we gain

waa takes up tick in clickety clock ricket stoppety clock.  Last years a SECOND HAND... flusted bush but now it's Omega/Rolex timing to the spot just need to squeeze 

Patients 

 

Spot on mate. Couldn't agree more

[snowray]

Well ensembles for central England are looking a bit better, the mean had gone up to around 2c pretty much to the end in the earlier gfs runs, but it's now back down to around the 0c so not quite as bad, once again we have hints of it turning a little colder at the end of the run.

Again its the control run that shows the most interest, a glimmer of hope there.

 

 

 

Edited December 14, 2019 by snowray

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, abruzzi spur said:

Shaping hemi... forms to await as we gain

waa takes up tick in clickety clock ricket stoppety clock.  Last years a SECOND HAND... flusted bush but now it's Omega/Rolex timing to the spot just need to squeeze 

Patients 

 

I literally have no idea what that means. 

[snowray]

Just a quickie before bed, In fact it's not just the control that's showing the potential for northern blocking and Scandi highs just after Christmas, I don't normally look through all of the various individual members but it's quite remarkable how many are showing decent set ups. All a long way off of course but anyway here are a few of the best ones, and sweet dreams of a white winter to everyone.

[swfc]

25 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

I literally have no idea what that means. 

I've tried to decode it but to know avail .I suspect there's a mouse and a clock in there somewherei think it's tight isobar in disguise 

Edited December 15, 2019 by swfc

[Cheshire Freeze]

32 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

I literally have no idea what that means. 

I doubt very much he does either 

[Yarmy]

2 hours ago, abruzzi spur said:

Shaping hemi... forms to await as we gain

waa takes up tick in clickety clock ricket stoppety clock.  Last years a SECOND HAND... flusted bush but now it's Omega/Rolex timing to the spot just need to squeeze 

Patients 

 

Genius, but the only thing missing was a zoomed in picture of some random part of the Northern hemipshere.

[sorepaw1]

Maybe just maybe some snow for Christmas day 00z GFS T+240hr.

Even if we don't get snow it should be cold and frosty xmas morning. 

Nail biting times.

Might have a fiver at the bookies this year.

[SilverWolf]

7 hours ago, abruzzi spur said:

Shaping hemi... forms to await as we gain

waa takes up tick in clickety clock ricket stoppety clock.  Last years a SECOND HAND... flusted bush but now it's Omega/Rolex timing to the spot just need to squeeze 

Patients 

 

Best to go mushroom picking with a guide, you never know what you’ll end up with..... 

[Ali1977]

Looking at the ECM for 23rd Dec you’d think there’s a good chance of a cold Xmas Day as this would be pretty cold I’d imagine, with severe frosts up north maybe .

A messy Atlantic though that will no doubt put a stop to it 

 

Or will it , just one more day that Northerly needs to hold on for!! 

Edited December 15, 2019 by Ali1977