Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The 168 out later will give us a clue. But any front running into the cold air embedded could be wintry.

Also looks like there could be a front trying to push into eastern and south east uk from the continent !!is there enough cold air on the western flank for precipitation to turn to snow?

[swfc]

Not much to report on the 12z so far today imo.heights to the south grinding my gears tbh!!!

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Also looks like there could be a front trying to push into eastern and south east uk from the continent !!is there enough cold air on the western flank for precipitation to turn to snow?

I might be imagining this but that bloated SE European High also seems to be getting pushed away SE with each UKMO run. Or is that me hoping!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

What if the gfs is trying to bring in the Atlantic a bit quicker next Wednesday ? We could get the euro high building further NW to force more disruption of the low heading in ?

[LRD]

GFS 12z - a bit of a horror show

Edited December 11, 2019 by LRD

[joggs]

Just now, LRD said:

GFS 12z - a bit of a horror show

Everything that could go wrong,always seems to. I wonder when the Mediterranean will have a low pressure winter again.........

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

GFS 12z - a bit of a horror show

The only solace is that the GFS 144 is a million miles away from the UKM 144 and therefore hopefully not a likely scenario. Over to the ECM.

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, LRD said:

I might be imagining this but that bloated SE European High also seems to be getting pushed away SE with each UKMO run. Or is that me hoping!

I think we may need some industrial size boxes of straws at this rate yes need to see either a strong Atlantic ridge pushing north or heights towards scan.stating obv but neither looks likely pre Xmas imo

[Skullzrulerz]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

GFS 12z - a bit of a horror show

Shame to be honest looked like it did have a bit of promise early on however with the uncertainty at current so could change either way.

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The only solace is that the GFS 144 is a million miles away from the UKM 144 and therefore hopefully not a likely scenario. Over to the ECM.

I see what yea mean potential.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, swfc said:

Not much to report on the 12z so far today imo.heights to the south grinding my gears tbh!!!

well as @weirpig posted, as I was about to, higher areas to wake up to a white Sunday morning, potential there still on 12Z for snow

[swfc]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

well as @weirpig posted, as I was about to, higher areas to wake up to a white Sunday morning, potential there still on 12Z for snow

I was commenting on the runs not transient snow,my mistske

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The only solace is that the GFS 144 is a million miles away from the UKM 144 and therefore hopefully not a likely scenario. Over to the ECM.

Exactly, GFS is so so up and down....UKMO still very much in steady land

 

BFTP

[LRD]

10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The only solace is that the GFS 144 is a million miles away from the UKM 144 and therefore hopefully not a likely scenario. Over to the ECM.

Yes pretty stark differences between GFS and UKMO at 144

I think it was Mucka who was saying that if GFS has modelled arctic heights incorrectly then the rest of the run will be wrong

Edited December 11, 2019 by LRD

[Tim Bland]

Should rename this the 12 zzzzzzzzz

06z was completely different to its earlier run. Let’s see how FI on this run compares to 06z .... #hasn’tgotaclue 

Edited December 11, 2019 by Tim Bland

[SMU]

46 minutes ago, shaky said:

Also looks like there could be a front trying to push into eastern and south east uk from the continent !!is there enough cold air on the western flank for precipitation to turn to snow?

The GEM shows this at 150

[booferking]

15 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Exactly, GFS is so so up and down....UKMO still very much in steady land

 

BFTP

Gem not far of the ukmo maybe better with Arctic heights.

[swfc]

Have to say the GFS ens out to day ten on the 12z have just been given a sphincter rating of 9-10 by me!!!

[chris55]

UKMO a peach tonight. The way it deals with the big Low exiting Newfoundland is excellent, holding it in position with some WAA and subsequently good disruption. 
 

Hugely important we get trough disruption rather than a southerly tracking ‘intact’ system as this will just bring mild southerlies.

This low is massively important in terms of Christmas weather IMO. 
 

UKMO best option I have seen so far. Nothing hugely impressive showing locally at 144 but overall the pattern it

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ali1977]

Some Day 11 ENS and the mean bottom right, fair to say that the PV is in tatters !! 

[chris55]

1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

The day 6 UKMO upsets me to look at, that damn piece of vortex over Canada and elongating troughing is the absolute killer for us on this chart, aside from that you’d say this chart actually has a bit of interest. Shame.

I disagree with that!

The elongating is a good thing!

GFS separates the trough with most of the energy heading into the southern section meaning we will be stuck in mild south/south west winds.

[Ali1977]

At 336 these 2 caught my eye.

And a few more in deeper FI, PV has gave up

Edited December 11, 2019 by Ali1977

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Shocking gefs tonight! Hope they’re as clueless as the op!

[snowray]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Shocking gefs tonight! Hope they’re as clueless as the op!

We still have some colder members there at the end of the run for the Christmas period though. And snow chances for next week too of course.

Ens for Birmingham.

[swfc]

Snow for high ground sat forecast northern england.next week on the updated beeb at17-30 looks like this morning's EC.from mid week unsettled and turning milder app