Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[bluearmy]

Gfs also a little less amplified than previous run .... not a terrific start to the 12z’s but I guess we’ll within the envelope which remaine much larger than some would like 

[StretfordEnd1996]

12z on the GFS looks a tad less amplified than the 6z but not overly so by +120 or so - GFS 12z first

[SMU]

GFS 12z is fine .... But a bit flatter towards the UKMO ( duly noted )

[mountain shadow]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

GFS 12z is fine .... But a bit flatter towards the UKMO ( duly noted )

At that timeframe, for our wee part of the world, there's only one winner I'm afraid.

I expect the 12z ECM will be a half way house, but half way ain't enough for us.

 

[Tim Bland]

12z Vs 06z for comparison at T144...not much in it!

[StretfordEnd1996]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

12z Vs 06z for comparison at T144...not much in it!

The big difference is the low to our west - it looks to be slightly different compared to the 06z 

[Mike Poole]

Meanwhile on GFS, and noting the issue wrt UKMO, T150 looking good with stronger amplification than 06z:

Now let's see if the next ridge follows the earlier run...

[Timmytour]

Is too much of the energy from Southern Greenland going north? 

[Skullzrulerz]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

12z Vs 06z for comparison at T144...not much in it!

That low is a concern if you want that wedge to keep holding not to mention it's further West too 

[StretfordEnd1996]

This looks a nasty low now to our west at +162 but where's it going to end up finishing I wonder? 

Is it going to help in push the jet stream further South.. let's see

[swfc]

1 minute ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

The big difference is the low to our west - it looks to be slightly different compared to the 06z 

Yes it very rounded and not getting stretched and distrupting has the 6z

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 minute ago, Timmytour said:

Is too much of the energy from Southern Greenland going north? 

No there’s actually less but the southern arm is slightly further north.

There might be enough margin for error for that going in to the election date.

Edited December 3, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover

[Tim Bland]

Rain turning to snow. Beatnik further north  Going to be fine margins on this run...

Edited December 3, 2019 by Tim Bland

[SMU]

Because of the stronger WAA in the 144-162 area this is the plot for 174 snow line edging closer to LON

Heights looking strong towards SW greenland

Edited December 3, 2019 by Steve Murr

[frosty ground]

The low still disrupts just closer to the UK

[Iceaxecrampon]

12z

Game on as soon as Monday

(T+141)

Edited December 3, 2019 by Iceaxecrampon

[Ali1977]

Maybe not as good as the 06z but could still be great by day 10. You’d take this chart if it were still the same on the day. Depends what happens with the block forming over Greenland. FI around day 6 maybe!! 

Edited December 3, 2019 by Ali1977

[Mike Poole]

That's an indigestible low to go under but it still might, T174:

Edit: actually similar to ICON T180:

Edited December 3, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Tim Bland]

It’s going...better heights around Greenland 

[coldwinter]

Not much point looking further when the differences are so early, if the GFS has got it right at day 5 then we are pretty game on, can it trump the UKMO at that range? I would be surprised if it is as flat as the UKMO though, there should be some amplification. Onto ECM! 

[Mike Poole]

And now the fun starts GFS T198:

Plenty more WAA into Greenland from that big low out west, this is going to be a stonker!

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s going...better heights around Greenland 

Imo it's miles away fro the 6z early doors.see what EC shows but GFS 12z just for fun  after 192 hrs imo

Edited December 3, 2019 by swfc

[Tim Bland]

Short term pain (snow reserved for high ground and Scotland next week) but long term gain perhaps?..

[northwestsnow]

UKMO looks fine to me, different route but will end at a similar destination to GFS IMO-

 

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO looks fine to me, different route but will end at a similar destination to GFS IMO-

 

Yes, I was musing along the same lines, models exploring different routes, but the destination ultimately might be the same...if one ridge doesn't take hold the next might?

GFS heading towards Narnia territory now at T222:

This run could slice the NH!

Edited December 3, 2019 by Mike Poole