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Paul

Mid-winter - models, teleconnections and nowcasting

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Still some differences with the mean anomalies this morning, essentially to do with the structure and alignment of the tpv over the Arctic and environs which cast doubt on confidence on the detail outside of the 'safe' range. Suffice it to say portending unsettle with a N/S bias

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0256000.thumb.png.1e8f9cc0d1e32f4144731f51a90ee7ac.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0601600.thumb.png.57d8d4e332ac715247816c52a9403728.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0688000.thumb.png.2ee7376f33adddf6afa2c103a0077cb4.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0256000.thumb.png.608c024ae4f712249fbe65ff7f4842e2.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0601600.thumb.png.95642410efd4079b7a51da59532cbf58.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0688000.thumb.png.b2e84e7b894215d19e5c0ed5d9308772.png

814day_03.thumb.gif.946267cccfca81450f7846dd6625af5b.gif

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And further rain forecast for SE and E Australia

ecmwf-deterministic-aus-total_precip_mm-9824000.thumb.png.b76275e5f3406930f2bb3d68626bd323.pngecmwf-deterministic-aus-t2m_c_anom_5day-9824000.thumb.png.f9cfd2f517dcb1a45166688bef02a031.png

Edited by knocker

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The gfs develops a wave on the trailing front and tracks it north east to be Scotland midday Saturday

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9759200.thumb.png.bbda176b06934e880531c40b81c37da0.pnggfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9867200.thumb.png.b14f5b0f83dfef6e1a68886b78216ba3.pnggfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9953600.thumb.png.980b1af3c648e3e1be83415ea5e6d63c.png

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To be quickly followed by a more vigorous one. Of course this is in the very unreliable time frame

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Edited by knocker

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The ecm also has a wave forming on the front but curves it NE along the eastern flank of the main trough

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9867200.thumb.png.4a474c014a4e42a2f6b5bc28fff48645.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9953600.thumb.png.569e910c917cd83e8a23bff045ea672c.pngindex.thumb.png.1d9ca935a9043cfb7827eb43eb68fcf1.png

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Not going to look too far ahead this evening as the GEFS and EPS anomalies are poles apart (no pun intended) in the 5-10 range.

For example the EPS has a lobe of the vortex escalated from northern Canada by the amplification of the ridge,which then intensifies around Iceland and dominates the latter half of the run. The GEFs, although also suppressing the subtropical high, is not particularly interested in this scenario. The bottom line is the detail post t120 still to be decided

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-9953600.thumb.png.2d39e3ecfb4b058807f2bcff6d70adba.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0299200.thumb.png.b5e6c3265c50e951c64242454f71768b.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0299200.thumb.png.bb833249a7da4305af468abd922509f2.png

Edited by knocker

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By midday Friday there are significant differences concerning the depth and position of the developing frontal wave between the gfs and Exeter to keep in mind as the continuation is based on the former

108.thumb.png.96d30585594251a1eecc40216ad78db4.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.368f22c42d1eb282e2c9981c1fe3196e.gif

By midday Saturday the deep low is just south east of Iceland with the associated front bringing rain (snow on the mountains) and strong winds to the north. But as can be seen the attack on the ridge is two pronged with a lobe of the vortex dropping down near Iceland and energy sweeping north east from the southern States/ Thus quite complex synoptics over the next few days with further developments on the trailing front and a deep surface low to the north. Quite strong winds will be the order of the day over the UK and quite wintry in the north if the front does as indicated by the gfs

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-9953600.thumb.png.f7242c6d03ac44a13ec550170fd16e80.png132.thumb.png.e275bfa9671d3b4f049275cb5d6dddc6.png156.thumb.png.f43067971a8f6bf8f99283f6c4c68a35.png168.thumb.png.13cf52496f88c7ee1c34bbf60c71047c.png

 

Edited by knocker

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Meanwhile back on the farm, not so cold this morning in the midlands and north, some medium and high cloud?

06.thumb.gif.6d05343c1f42873d181acb9dd1960ba8.gif2020012000.03238.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.6d80724c394a4b2af8c4a5451841572b.gif2020012000.03354.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.40b53616433225a90e72cd3164951e01.gif

 

Edited by knocker

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Signs of closer agreement between the ext anomalies this morning, albeit a pretty zonal picture. But with the tpv/polar profile adjusting west and the associated Atlantic trough doing likewise there are indications of further amplification of the European high at the end of the runs, not as yet noticeable with NOAAA. Await the next couple of runs to see whether this is just a blip

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0688000.thumb.png.fe9f1735898bd4a448d35f38fdb7dced.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0688000.thumb.png.4139055077ee1d9f301a4660726edce5.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-0774400.thumb.png.d85b1488940bb957210d4c67404771e6.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0688000.thumb.png.0a9bcf275ef66904a24ca58203c80c46.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0688000.thumb.png.529be6d1da573e85bf966327be374734.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-0860800.thumb.png.7f877e952609db97b337f060a4334755.png814day_03.thumb.gif.0335c6d84e71519ed1ccdaebaebb2a70.gif

 

 

Edited by knocker

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The gfs has the first frontal wave tracking north east, deepening, and merging with the tpv lobe by midday Saturday with the associated front bringing rain (snow on the mountains) in the north accompanied by strong winds

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9953600.thumb.png.7df781ca9f2638656366f2fd1c9328ab.png120.thumb.png.c098511ee99b169aafd6b99a5c5ec1b6.png

From this point the whole complex upper trough re-orientates and lows form along the very active cold front which will bring some quite wintry and windy weather, particularly in to the north of the UK if it transpires like this

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-0083200.thumb.png.54d531d2b54d2f766b7137f9dbc065f5.pnggfs-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-0083200.thumb.png.552acf7c9314d17df71a7945a17762ca.png

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gfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c-0148000.thumb.png.86cc1fb4c9995358e6297266d7f36bc0.png

 

Edited by knocker

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Te detail at the beginning of next week is a long way from being sorted as witness the ecm has rapid cyclogenisis along the frontal zone this evening

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-0083200.thumb.png.ad9183a431edf6ef25258b4857036035.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-0083200.thumb.png.517c4dd025beb8f08be3292da66e4611.png

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The first deepening wave in mid Atlantic is tracking north east and merging with the lobe of the tpv that has dropped down to the tip of Greenland by midday Saturday . The associated cold front will bring some rain and strong winds to the north

PPVO89.thumb.gif.d4e604069ababe9817d73cf8bdad5307.gifgfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-9953600.thumb.png.e7db23ac4416f01cf6c8581a019647c2.png

But it's the next one away to the south west, which apparently hitches a ride on the subtropical jet before the two energy supplies merge.which we need to keep an eye on as it tracks north east and deepens rapidly. This could produce some very strong winds and very inclement weather as the associated front tracks southeast down the country. But it's far too early to assume the worst case scenario as the detail is certainly subject to change

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-0040000.thumb.png.7428b2d46471c910f4a42b82efa83a55.png132.thumb.png.b0a107a5ae8e61cb75c22907c45ea906.png144.thumb.png.6aaf56d14211a620ade53def8fe77cb6.png156.thumb.png.f1fff3248a369bbf812c1d650dd54613.png

Edited by knocker

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The ecm take on the complexities of the ridge over North america and the upper trough in the Atlantic and the developing low early next week

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-0040000.thumb.png.3093b33412f4bf7bd625cf840b7cb43e.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-0040000.thumb.png.e64abff19735f6107429a2e51bc4145e.png

132.thumb.png.55595bd75fa73977b3ef5732cda7c9b6.png150.thumb.png.6c22bed76ccc3c6702a60fdcbb082960.png162.thumb.png.742f9f2aa7a08e632eb64628170bcff5.png

Purely out of interest the temp contrast across the cold front

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-t2m_c-0148000.thumb.png.8a107458abe3ad5c1a87249e5a8c1745.png

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A quick glance at the EC weeklies update for the last two weeks of February

14 > 21

Salient points

Aleutian ridge adjacent to the tpv northern Canada with associated trough NW Atlantic

Quite a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard which abates somewhat in the east as the the subtropical high retains some influence

Indicating changeable but with a N/S bias and nothing too drastic

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-2243200.thumb.png.e38202c67c296411cdf33a369f5f96a9.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_7day-2243200.thumb.png.8e4c5cd70589a52a585ea6f2a13b41a8.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-2243200.thumb.png.20edbf40195fb50c3d72c810f6efb060.png

21 > 29

The key difference here is the re-orientation of the tpv and the regression of the Atlantic trough that facilitates further influence from the subtropical high in the vicinity of the UK, thus portending a more settled spell of weather

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-2934400.thumb.png.d02568e839b2b0af1e2730a9999650ae.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_7day-2934400.thumb.png.6cd806d4b5c7403b558988bcc4dbe84d.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-2934400.thumb.png.23a59ff3444b698312704976ab008ec5.png

 

 

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Cold with a lot of fog central/southern England at the moment. much warmer down here with a low layer of Sc

08.thumb.gif.0181cd4c18e81c4ccbac64708c768524.gif

Edited by knocker

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still need to keep an eye n the low that develops at the base of the upper trough and deepens rapidly as it tracks north east at the beginning of next week

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0040000.thumb.png.f74b67e3629a91adf983b22545fdb9a5.pnggfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0126400.thumb.png.71b3d51afc994b88f740803ed2bdeb74.pnggfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-0126400.thumb.png.0473a18c8067576232aa0e8790197036.png

120.thumb.png.50ee6951711cb3cd089013769a6126e8.png144.thumb.png.e75d02e976805db9ba0a413bcbddd0d9.png

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The ecm also has a very active cold front but the rapid cyclogenisis occurs further to  the north east  Quite a complex scenario and the detail still awaits sorting

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-0126400.thumb.png.6d4b64fabdcb03a3f0b4dc99f48f8140.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-0148000.thumb.png.5a8e46956992d90c70df78e0cbf30ca4.png

150.thumb.png.377385d761cfddf6f23ded3d7bb8f525.png162.thumb.png.de77eb832d56b16521fcfa45899bcc0d.png

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The 5-10 mean anomalies merely confirm the indications of the det runs that the tpv lobe close to Iceland, aided and abetted by the 'feeder' from the subtropical jet, create an active cyclogenisis zone in the Atlantic that will imprint on the UK during this period. During the ext period the structure and orientation of the vortex changes resulting in the regression of the Atlantic trough which facilitates some amplification of the subtropical high in the east. There is no hard and fast agreement here at the moment but it does portend a more settled period, albeit trending towards a N/S split

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0472000.thumb.png.c364b006c9699c54284eb44e9ede562a.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0817600.thumb.png.d754d8ac205d76cdb86a4d4a1fb47cec.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0904000.thumb.png.8c33b46756c8bfe03382ce30d1570e8c.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0472000.thumb.png.da41978827c4ad7f4ba9cf08c3d89096.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0817600.thumb.png.701dc271d1d49e8a944c824c020f0c93.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0817600.thumb.png.95f3b2cc4f2aafa801b3cfd9f3ce09a3.png

Latest NAO, AO

ecmwf-weeklies-all2-avg-ao-box-9478400.thumb.png.f34c320430d037d2939eb42da7f37798.pngecmwf-weeklies-all2-avg-nao-box-9478400.thumb.png.20e6982b81d799b4323cee66edfee332.png

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deleted

 

 

Edited by knocker

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Both the gfs and ecm have a very volatile and baroclinic Atlantic next weekend with further rapid cyclogenisis and WAA into Europe. Most of the activity is to the west of the UK, and obviously the detail will change, but worth keeping an eye on

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-0558400.thumb.png.a4dbc2003d6c6eef9732f846068d3611.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-0644800.thumb.png.2d873b822155c58ffd606b133cc32b44.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-0644800.thumb.png.f97207726132f70d4ed02f7962df24ad.png144.thumb.png.b6087a1e2d580383516c24d1a0915251.png168.thumb.png.9f2c946babbba381f4768357ae4f191a.png192.thumb.png.ae9ff015927df0266bafa839e093f407.png

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We finally lose the upper trough (vortex lobe) that has been dominating the Atlantic for the last few days. But the respite is short as a strong Pacific jet becomes twin energy flows around North America (aided and abetted by the subtropical) and thus the situation remains rife for cyclogenisis in the Atlantic.and some more wind and rain

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-0472000.thumb.png.9066c1c71a2d4a6ba7c7e545d8b7c6f1.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.3d34f1c3040c7c4aeb9d6628758ad58b.gif

As can be seen over next weekend and the beginning of next week

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-0601600.thumb.png.15241290faf345abc79fdb8a0debf719.pnggfs-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-0601600.thumb.png.626c702067da2c69dd9b88742b681e15.png

120.thumb.png.1b6afe4695440bbc35e104fb4d0229ce.png144.thumb.png.18ff7a4f19b910185cc9a8b20e58c309.png168.thumb.png.fd29bb0d57f67ab9568db36aac69d809.png

Edited by knocker

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