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Summer Sun

Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

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Any chance ECM can throw out something really cold at the end of its run.I can’t remember a winter with a lack of any eye candy in FL,,nothing but mild operationals for months.

And it’s utterly dire again.Nearly time to throw the towel in?

Edited by SLEETY
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EC is rank.tbh I wished I lived in Spain this winter it's been a cracker

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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Any chance ECM can throw out something really cold at the end of its run.I can’t remember a winter with a lack of any eye candy in FL,,nothing but mild operationals for months.

And it’s utterly dire again.Nearly time to throw the towel in?

Struck me that snorefest winters have been had before but rarely with such little cold chasing from models that have offered very little hope at all, so far. Even LRFs have proved good.

Is this a sign of model improvement, I wonder?

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10 hours ago, mb018538 said:

That's not technically true - there are signs that something is afoot in the strat. Check Simon Lees twitter and available data etc. Nothing concrete yet, but there could be a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

He is a student. Twitter breeds publicity seeking peeps.

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15 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

This ‘winter’ can suck my big toe.

What winter?! :cc_confused:

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Hmmm - some interest in strat process at the moment. Feb 18 we had the SSW that brought the March Beast on Feb 12th. A suggestion across more than one model today that a mid Feb strat disruption may be in the offing. Winter may be a done deal, but perhaps early Spring can, once again, deliver real wintry interest. Wouldn’t be out of kilter with recent years....

If the signal remains or grows tomorrow I’ll put together a longer post.

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And am I right in remembering that today is the two year anniversary of the Met Office comment that there was no sign of an SSW and the forecast through Feb March was therefore unremarkable? Seem to remember that comment was deleted afterwards though some sharp eyed observers copied it...?

Maybe 2020 can bring something similar.

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25 minutes ago, Catacol said:

And am I right in remembering that today is the two year anniversary of the Met Office comment that there was no sign of an SSW and the forecast through Feb March was therefore unremarkable? Seem to remember that comment was deleted afterwards though some sharp eyed observers copied it...?

Maybe 2020 can bring something similar.

I hope this is true, would love to see that comment ?

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Plenty of eye candy on offer in the late stages of the EPS this morning. Hopefully we can save Spring

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-1206400.thumb.png.93a68631817564a046ff24aa7c1a7d9d.png

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Snowless januarys 1992...2002..1989..

Snow has fell here this month not stuck,but thats coming next tuesday dusting at best.

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I’m on the verge of completing 2 essentially* snowless winters in a row, which for where I live is pretty ridiculous really. I haven’t seen proper snow since the Beast from the East’s little brother in mid March 2018. I’m not even sure 06/07 and 07/08 when I lived in Preston were this hopeless. 
 

*I saw snow falling one night last winter to a depth of 1 flake that melted as soon as the sun thought about coming up so wouldn’t even meet the Met Office 9am standard. This year I haven’t even seen sleet. 

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It is looking likely that winter is going to arrive in spring if it is to arrive at all.Hopefully we may get another March 2018,2013,2001,1987 or 1979 

I could always dream of skipping winter altogether for a repeat of April 1981 !

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Here we go. Getting set for winter to arrive in spring...

 

Certainly seems to be changing the tune from earlier in the week. Promising. 

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Would be great to have ,cold high pressure, every one seeing a decent snowfall, sliders ,channel lows ,polar lows forming and moving south across the backbone of the UK, and of course some lake effect snow .lets hope IFF a good  SSW does occur we can get it to fall in our favour. Great posts , thanks for all the information and charts   , no ones posted on model discussion for 4 hours  ,desperate times ,cheers gang .

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51 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Here we go. Getting set for winter to arrive in spring...

 

Hope this reply to Ian means that GloSea is also seeing this. 

2FA29828-4D52-4A91-BE42-C0E5A1520E83.png

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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Here we go. Getting set for winter to arrive in spring...

 

Good to see Marco taking note.  This won't please those looking forward to spring, but I hope that after an awful winter so far for cold/snow lovers, early spring at least will be cold and potentially snowy.  For those who want a hot summer, don't fret as a cold spring certainly does not preclude this.  Look at 2013!

Edited by Don
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8 hours ago, Catacol said:

And am I right in remembering that today is the two year anniversary of the Met Office comment that there was no sign of an SSW and the forecast through Feb March was therefore unremarkable? Seem to remember that comment was deleted afterwards though some sharp eyed observers copied it...?

Maybe 2020 can bring something similar.

I was a day out. Contingency forecast of 26th January 2018 below - see final paragraph. So there is always opportunity for error, and hope springs eternal...

image.thumb.png.62ff0604e2e390df2f02619c245eec91.png

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4 hours ago, bradythemole said:

Hope this reply to Ian means that GloSea is also seeing this. 

2FA29828-4D52-4A91-BE42-C0E5A1520E83.png

I would have thought Ian would have access to GloSea?

Edited by Don

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4 minutes ago, Don said:

I would have thought Ian would have access to GloSea?

He implying not.

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3 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

He implying not.

I know that but I'm surprised he doesn't have access.

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24 minutes ago, Don said:

I know that but I'm surprised he doesn't have access.

He did when the Met Office were supplying forecasts to the BBC. I would suspect that access was lost when MeteoGroup took over.

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Just now, bathweatherwatcher said:

He did when the Met Office were supplying forecasts to the BBC. I would suspect that access was lost when MeteoGroup took over.

Ahh, that would make sense!

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