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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Morning all Yesterday was one of my favourite Meteorological Winter days of all time - no snowfall but -4c to start the day with a lovely sunrise, frost stayed on the ground at sea level all day,

One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

You could apply that to gale lovers, why would you want a potentially destructive storm causing death, damage, disruption? You could apply that to thunderstorm lovers, why would you want a severe

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8 hours ago, Stabilo19 said:

"Harsh" frost across the south last night - between 0 and -4..

You have to laugh! What a pathetic winter so far. ?

Harsh frost? 
 

And to think that somehow those of us who were around at the time survived -25 temperatures in 1981/82. How times have changed!

 

Edited by Carl46Wrexham
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3 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Harsh frost? 
 

And to think that somehow those of us who were around at the time survived -25 temperatures in 1981/82. How times have changed!

 

Agree entirely.  Whilst there have been frosts the last few days, it has certainly been nothing out of the ordinary!

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4 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Wonder how many more weeks before a massive pattern change takes place and the majority of Europe goes bitterly cold.I have seen it before with minus 30 at the end of March in Sweden etc and sub-Zero in Mid March even here on the coast.I expect huge payback from this mildness over Europe.

That’s whats keeping my interest in the models and how long before they pick up on the change.

Its certainly been a tedious winter though chasing non existent cold for months.

 

I don't think so. Most winters that it was warm here in dec and jan continued at the same pattern. 

I have never seen so successful seasonal models as this year and they are pretty bad for the rest of the winter.

Some signals must have been so strong this winter, I can't explain how they have seen it so well

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9 hours ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Harsh frost? 
 

And to think that somehow those of us who were around at the time survived -25 temperatures in 1981/82. How times have changed!

 

And  - 27c in 1995

And  - 24c in 2010

Much more recent. 

Interesting reading the monthly summaries on the Met Office and Met Eireann sites, all the way back to the 50s.

Not much has changed. Several long stretches of successive winters, most of the 70s for example l, without any severe cold.

Edited by Blessed Weather
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1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Well at least we can put to bed the myth that longer range models are always pish. Correct call at 3 month lead time is not too bad at all.

Of course, this only really applies to a +NAO set up as they are seemingly quite atrocious at dealing with anything outside of the climatological 'norm'

Quite so Crewe. Anyone or any computer can forecast the climatological norm.

It's the person or computer that can pick the cold winters that are the real deal.

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16 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Quite so Crewe. Anyone or any computer can forecast the climatological norm.

It's the person or computer that can pick the cold winters that are the real deal.

But not those that routinely predict Snowmageddon, year in and year out, I hope?:shok: IMO, it's getting it right, more reliably than any others, that counts...?

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Core depths of winter right now, yet it feels like the start of the school summer holidays - how quiet it is in the forum.. it should be buzzing.. at this time of year when far more people tend to be stuck inside in the dark dreary january evenings.. a sign of how non-descript things are at present.

One omni-present feature of recent winters, since at least 15/16 has been the N Pacific high, yet again it is there this winter, what is causing it.. the warm SST values in the region, is this tied in with the PDO.. all it seems to do is fire the jet, and cause low pressure to steam out of USA seaboard.. 

What factors will help prevent it from rearing itself again next winter? I think this feature combined with the IOD have dominated proceedings this winter, given how muted and ineffectual other factors seem to be.. 

I'm feeling a bit deflated today, kind of just want to get this 'winter' out of the way, and fast forward to April. Not feeling it this year at all. (I'll be positive again soon!)

 

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11 hours ago, cheese said:

There’s really no good excuse for the UK (and Ireland too for that matter) having a higher winter mortality rate than countries with significantly colder winters.

I totally agree with that but as with everything it comes down to spending,spending on infrastructure to cope with both hot as well as cold conditions. we are stuck in the void between the 2,neither hot or cold on a regular basis hence lack of investment. 

Edited by markyo
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31 minutes ago, markyo said:

I totally agree with that but as with everything it comes down to spending,spending on infrastructure to cope with both hot as well as cold conditions. we are stuck in the void between the 2,neither hot or cold on a regular basis hence lack of investment. 

We should be better equipped for the cold IMO. Houses in this country are mainly designed to keep the heat in as we are cool/cold for a good chunk of the year. Extreme summer heat causes issues as most people don't have air conditioning and struggle to cool down. 

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17 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

That only goes as far as 2000,the seas have been getting warmer.

I dread to think what that chart will show once its updated to 2020!?

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Just now, snowray said:

I dread to think what that chart will show once its updated to 2020!?

That chart goes out to 2019,it was published last week by the Met Office. 

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Matt Hugo saying that the Mountain Torque measurements are off the scale, yet having ZERO impact on the rampant polar vortex. 

It makes you wonder why we bother measuring such things and other things such as the strength of solar output, as neither of them appear to have any influence on getting proper cold into here.

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19 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

That chart goes out to 2019,it was published last week by the Met Office. 

So it is up to date, thanks for the info.?

I wonder what chances are of it dipping back down again in the next few years, as others have said just need a few big volcanoes going off.

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36 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I think this non-descript week may just help 2019/20 clinch the title of worst winter I've ever had the misfortune to experience, unless February pulls a miracle out of its backside.

Yes, plenty run it close over the last 30 years but if the model projections are correct and this rumbles on through Feb as all indicators suggest, then it will be the worst ever.  

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12 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

The long evenings and BBQ's are just around the corner, thankfully. Uk winters are such a waste of time.

I'm not a huge summer fan but even I'm clamouring for the first pleasantly warm spring days now. You just know it will go annoyingly and pointlessly cold late March and early April though ?

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1 minute ago, Nick L said:

I'm not a huge summer fan but even I'm clamouring for the first pleasantly warm spring days now. You just know it will go annoyingly and pointlessly cold late March and early April though ?

I'm expecting snow in March lol

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Well I've seen 3-4 frost's this winter and not one wintry shower.thats pretty incredible for here .I remember in late November one or two respected members going for winter touch down mid december.it then became early mid January and now it's sounding like march ?I guess the meto have been spot on altho we are in I suppose normal default situation .roll on a nice warm spring and put this winter to bed 

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