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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Still sticking with average - thinking some mild spells as well but lets hope the first half can deliver something - worry about the second half later - if there is no chance of anything soon then yes start thinking of 1 month and greater out but like you say when there is something at 200 - concentrate on seeing it come in reliable range.

A bit of a worry that the UKMO is not following the other models, though?

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Just now, Don said:

A bit of a worry that the UKMO is not following the other models, though?

Not all that worried myself - nothing certain but in this instance i am going to go with cold but slightly watered down, usually i would go with UKMO as we have seen this before - if it was a full on scandi high i would have reservations but with this Northerly less so.

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3 minutes ago, Don said:

A bit of a worry that the UKMO is not following the other models, though?

That's just a question of who's your money on isn't it - you've got UKMO vs everyone else

UKMO in my opinion hasn't had the best reliability at +144 of late

 

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Still sticking with average - thinking some mild spells as well but lets hope the first half can deliver something - worry about the second half later - if there is no chance of anything soon then yes start thinking of 1 month and greater out but like you say when there is something at 200 - concentrate on seeing it come in reliable range.

As ever time will tell feb, IF we can get a cold xmas with some snow then I would be happy.

Worth an early punt on Aberdeen,Norwich etc.

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not all that worried myself - nothing certain but in this instance i am going to go with cold but slightly watered down, usually i would go with UKMO as we have seen this before - if it was a full on scandi high i would have reservations but with this Northerly less so.

Over the years GFS 'better' at handling a northerly?

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12 minutes ago, Don said:

A bit of a worry that the UKMO is not following the other models, though?

Judging by the model thread I don't think there's anyone that's worried at the moment ..!

 

Put it this way - if it was the other way around and UKMO was showing a northerly at +144 but the GFS, ECM, GEM, ICON and ensembles were showing nothing of the sort - I'd be putting £1000 on the latter solution!

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Just now, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Judging by the model thread I don't think there's anyone that's worried at the moment ..!

 

Put it this way - if it was the other way around and UKMO was showing a northerly at +144 but the GFS, ECM, GEM, ICON and ensembles were showing nothing of the sort - I'd be putting £1000 on the latter solution!

It seems that often when the UKMO has not been on board with a cold spell, the other models have tended to back away.  However, feb1991blizzard is of the opinion this tends to occur more with a Scandi high, rather than a northerly.

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10 hours ago, Paul said:

It's been quite entertaining seeing the reactions to the Netweather winter forecast this year. Uncanny how (for a good few at least), a forecast for a cold winter is seen as the best thing since sliced bread. Whereas a milder forecast means that all LRF's are bad and Netweather have apparently never got one right anyway!

Anyway, even during a milder than average winter (especially bearing in mind the forecast for it to be 1c or less milder than average), cold spells are always likely. 

I think it's a balanced forecast.if the general bias of the climate in our part of the world is east to west in movement then then there it is.i think the need for snow and cold is ok as long it's not biased either way.tbh after three or four runs today I've heard snow storms,record cold matching spells 20 years ago.this on 10-14 day charts.its fair enough but if the same charts show a PV ramping up with a westerly bias it wrong because of background signals🤔

Edited by swfc

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13 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

As ever time will tell feb, IF we can get a cold xmas with some snow then I would be happy.

Worth an early punt on Aberdeen,Norwich etc.

I actually would go on London as odds are massive - but would never do it until within D7, i actually prefer weekday rush hours for heavy snow rather than xmas day - i  want maximum impact.

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2 minutes ago, Don said:

It seems that often when the UKMO has not been on board with a cold spell, the other models have tended to back away.  However, feb1991blizzard is of the opinion this tends to occur more with a Scandi high, rather than a northerly.

I dont have any evidence for that mind - i dont feel it will be an unbelievable spell, i just think it will be better than UKMO suggests, although you dont know what that would have gone on to show in any case.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I dont have any evidence for that mind - i dont feel it will be an unbelievable spell, i just think it will be better than UKMO suggests, although you dont know what that would have gone on to show in any case.

Fair play.  As ever, we will just have to wait and see.  I don’t envisage seeing any snow IMBY at this stage but anything is possible!  At the end of the day, what will be will be.

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1 minute ago, Don said:

Fair play.  As ever, we will just have to wait and see.  I don’t envisage seeing any snow IMBY at this stage but anything is possible!  At the end of the day, what will be will be.

think you're in great spot, it's all FI but these systems track south as model runs go on, S of M4 normally favoured for sliders/runners, similar setup on 1st Feb this year, models were wrong up to 3 days before event, they had system too far north

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3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

think you're in great spot, it's all FI but these systems track south as model runs go on, S of M4 normally favoured for sliders/runners, similar setup on 1st Feb this year, models were wrong up to 3 days before event, they had system too far north

Good point!

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12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I actually would go on London as odds are massive - but would never do it until within D7, i actually prefer weekday rush hours for heavy snow rather than xmas day - i  want maximum impact.

LOL.

Within 7 days the odds will fall, massively so if snow is a real possibility.

Get in early this year perhaps.....

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When we get these epics charts within 72hrs I'll get excited. We've been here before with one model not singing off the same hymn sheet as the rest and it never ends well.

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1 minute ago, Wynter said:

When we get these epics charts within 72hrs I'll get excited. We've been here before with one model not singing off the same hymn sheet as the rest and it never ends well.

Was going to post the same thoughts. Until these charts get into the reliable then I'm not getting taken in by them. I might get jumped on for staying that but until we get into the weekend when we'll have a much better idea if it's definitely going to happen then that's all I'm saying. 

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From a personal perspective I'm curious to see how next week comes off. I'm landing in London on Saturday (14th) and it could be messy if there ends up being widespread snow on Friday. Watching closely. Far from a "typical" December pattern coming off.

Edited by CanadaAl

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WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Turning milder but more unsettled in the coming days as low pressure returns. But will the unsettled theme prevail through next week? Stav Danaos has the details.

I'll Post up MeteoGroup's Weather for the Week Ahead Forecast here, which will be broadcast at 12.25 AM. on BBC1.

MeteoGroup going for the cold and wintry extended outlook, next Week.

Regards,

Tom.       :hi:

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I won't be pinning any hopes on the BBC's forecasts. Didn't they make a calamity back in the Summer? They were going for heat returning or something, and it failed to materialise?

Could be some interesting weather next week, but I fear for some members who get carried away.

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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I won't be pinning any hopes on the BBC's forecasts. Didn't they make a calamity back in the Summer? They were going for heat returning or something, and it failed to materialise?

Could be some interesting weather next week, but I fear for some members who get carried away.

Don't totally disagree with you Mapantz.

As I stated the other Day in a Post, I'm now 64 and I've been interested in Meteorology for 50+ Years.

I've lived in S.E.London/N.W.Kent for the great majority of my life and I havn't experienced too many Pre-Xmas Snowfalls, in that time.

December 1981 and December 2010, were obviously notable for the amount of Pre-Xmas Cold and Snow. They really are, exceptions to the Rule.

FWIW, the epic Winter of 1962/63 didn't start in earnest, until Boxing Day '62.

Likewise the Snowy Winter of 1978/79, didn't get going until the Snowstorm of Dec.30th struck, the Southern half of the U.K.

Any new Members reading these Threads, take it from an "Oldie Coldie", hanging your hat on Pre-Xmas Snowfall (esp. in the South of the U.K.), is a recipe for frayed nerves, before December has been finished with.

Patience is a very advisable virtue, when hunting Winter Cold and Snow, in the U.K.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

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11 hours ago, Paul said:

But in fact, it's the opposite - many sensible winter forecasts (eg the ones which don't get featured weekly in the Express!) have gone for a milder than average winter. 

And if it were as simple as just looking at what happened during the previous season and expecting that to continue, then we'd all be laughing and no-one would ever get one wrong, but the weather just isn't that static. Put it this way - the summer was warmer than average, yet Autumn wasn't. 

But a Southerly Jetstream for nearly the last two months of Autumn ,the early cold weather over Scandinavia in the Autumn,and the last two months of Autumn below the CET,none of the LRf have factored that into their predictions,which is odd as it's so unusual.

And already the forecasts of December being above the CET average looks bust already.

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9 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

The Southerly meandering jet propensity continues. No surprise whatsoever with the current output.

EP ridge has been gaining traction in recent days and is more than just a bit part player.

Clearly the UKMO not as good as the others but I agree with BFTP, not necessarily a killer to the potential fun and games around mid month.

I think this could be a great start to the skiing season for parts of the Alps...

Could it be a great start to the skiing season on Saddleworth moor though and more importantly do you think it could be a great start to the standing outside a pub in Saddleworth having a fag and getting royally dumped on season  - thats the most important thing!

:oldgrin:

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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It happens every time. You would think people would learn to take charts over 144hrs with a massive pinch of salt. But every time people get emotionally invested in every run up to +300hrs!

We may yet still get some winteryness next week, but as of yet the charts haven't quite nailed down the extent. Leave the emotion out of it until you see the snow falling from the sky.

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Looks like the fog arrived two days after being forecast here in Windsor this morning! A very wintry -1.5c at 6.30am and still freezing at 8.00am. 

Bring on winter 2019/20.

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1 hour ago, Wynter said:

It happens every time. You would think people would learn to take charts over 144hrs with a massive pinch of salt. But every time people get emotionally invested in every run up to +300hrs!

We may yet still get some winteryness next week, but as of yet the charts haven't quite nailed down the extent. Leave the emotion out of it until you see the snow falling from the sky.

Six days away is a long time in Meteorology,nothing is ever nailed at that timescale ,nevermind later on,yet some people take every run as gospel,happens every winter

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