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Summer Sun

Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

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I mentioned this in the other forum..

Well the weather forecaster in our village,who is 91 ,is going for a big change late January lasting through till at least mid-febuary,with bitterly cold weather arriving with snow and sub-Zero temps,when I spoke to him at our village Xmas fete.

And whenever I see him walking up the high street ,I normally ask his opinion on the weather..He said weeks ago he was expecting the weather to turn very mild around xmas

Even though he has retired from writing his forecasts in the local newspper He has been pretty accurate in the past in his forecasts,so let’s hope he is correct again..!

 

Edited by SLEETY

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Snow and real cold will arrive in February and winter will drag on through March until late May. 
 

Trust me, I’m a scientist.

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Heavy snow in SE Turkey this morning has brought disruption to travel and schools have had to close.

 

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34 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Heavy snow in SE Turkey this morning has brought disruption to travel and schools have had to close.

 

Typical to see that at this time of year,our turn later on ,just be patient

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3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

I mentioned this in the other forum..

Well the weather forecaster in our village,who is 91 ,is going for a big change late January lasting through till at least mid-febuary,with bitterly cold weather arriving with snow and sub-Zero temps,when I spoke to him at our village Xmas fete.

And whenever I see him walking up the high street ,I normally ask his opinion on the weather..He said weeks ago he was expecting the weather to turn very mild around xmas

Even though he has retired from writing his forecasts in the local newspper He has been pretty accurate in the past in his forecasts,so let’s hope he is correct again..!

 

If he turns out correct I would be asking him for his methods!

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2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Typical to see that at this time of year,our turn later on ,just be patient

What a shame. Typical of our luck 

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8 hours ago, Azazel said:

Snow and real cold will arrive in February and winter will drag on through March until late May. 
 

Trust me, I’m a scientist.

Agree Spring will start late, but doubtful of cold and snow in Feb/Mar

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The models show little of any comfort for cold and snow lovers at present, as with so many British winters it's a game of patience. December 2010 I think raised people's expectations to unrealistic levels as to what can be expected in lowland Britain in early winter. 

Meteorological winter may well start on December 1st but unless you live above 300 metres or so December is really an autumn month for much of the time and one is much better off expecting autumn weather and then being pleasantly surprised if it turns cold and snowy .

Every year in November we are told that things are happening in the Strat or the mjo or solar minima that could bring wintry Nirvana, the problem is however that these are just parts of the puzzle and we don't have the box that the puzzle pieces came in that has the picture of how they all fit together.

All the factors mentioned above are legitimate tools and I am not disrespecting people who use them and put themselves on the line with forecasts.. In fact I have far more respect for those who try to use those tools than for those just turn up like Jonah's every winter saying it's going to be mild. Let's face it any numpty can quote climatology.

The key to seasonal winter forecasting for Britain is being able to work out the weighting of the various factors involved and this will change every season depending on the starting conditions.

The one thing that doesn't change is that come Late November every year as the polar night takes hold the Strat and Trop polar vortex's will strengthen and try to couple and try to sit over the polar regions in a spot that is not great for UK cold and snow.

All we can do in lowland Britain is hang in there for the times when the northern hemispheric pattern throws enough warm air into the Arctic to disrupt, split or destroy the polar vortex. Those occasions are rare which is why deep cold and deep snow in lowland Britain is rare.  It's as simple as that .

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53 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Agree Spring will start late, but doubtful of cold and snow in Feb/Mar

It's a leap year?:crazy:

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Not looking as mild as the mildies were hoping for. Not sure why they thought record breaking temps were in order this weekend with an anticyclonic centred to our northeast keeping central, southern, eastern areas pretty cool esp at night. With days as short as they are you need an anticyclone centred over France for near record breaking widespread temps. 

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The beeb are saying Sunday could hit 15c in NE Scotland

The temperature for Aberdeen this time of year should be around 6c

Edited by Summer Sun

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Looking perfect this weekend for some cycling and not having to worry about spray or getting seized up in the cold 👍🚴🏾‍♂️🚴🏾‍♂️ Let the triathlon training commence.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The beeb are saying Sunday could hit 15c in NE Scotland

The temperature for Aberdeen this time of year should be around 6c

Better get the factor 30 out up there.

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32 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The beeb are saying Sunday could hit 15c in NE Scotland

The temperature for Aberdeen this time of year should be around 6c

Not in the TMW it shouldn't. 😉

Edited by Don

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ECM weeklies keeps winter on hold. It remains mild to very mild across Europe until at least the end of Jan

 

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM weeklies keeps winter on hold. It remains mild to very mild across Europe until at least the end of Jan

 

Africa looks wintery?  maybe we can find winter there, instead of 1000+ miles nearer to the pole 😄

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52 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM weeklies keeps winter on hold. It remains mild to very mild across Europe until at least the end of Jan

 

Ive felt for some days Jan is going to be mild.

The joker in the pack may be Feb with the east qbo and weakening vortex ..

If its going to be late Feb tho i'm not really that interested.

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24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If its going to be late Feb tho i'm not really that interested.

I certainly would be! March 1st 2018 saw the most snow here since 1995.

 

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32 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ive felt for some days Jan is going to be mild.

The joker in the pack may be Feb with the east qbo and weakening vortex ..

If its going to be late Feb tho i'm not really that interested.

"Some days"?! I've felt it since late October. This Winter will be mild all the way; late Feb into early March will herald an early warm Spring. Run of mild UK Winters now, until 2025. Patterns and all that. Dont (ever) believe the selective NW posters' hype.

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8 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

"Some days"?! I've felt it since late October. This Winter will be mild all the way; late Feb into early March will herald an early warm Spring. Run of mild UK Winters now, until 2025. Patterns and all that. Dont (ever) believe the selective NW posters' hype.

I don't disagree about January being mild but i as i posted above, we have a descending Qbo and hopefully a weakening vortex by late Jan

So, i wouldn't be so quick to write off Feb personally.

Of course if there still a big +NAO late Jan then yes, my thoughts will alter accordingly.

Edited by northwestsnow

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2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I certainly would be! March 1st 2018 saw the most snow here since 1995.

 

C'mon though that depth of cold at that time won't be experienced again in my opinion coupled with the snow - coldest 1st March,...but possible and knowing our luck just as we're expecting real Spring to kick in for it to become cold though.

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9 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

C'mon though that depth of cold at that time won't be experienced again in my opinion

That's a brave statement. Although, I was merely pointing out i'm still interested in snow if it falls in February or March.

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Looks to be warm here this weekend. It's currently 11c. We often get this with the Fohn effect, and have done down the years, but haven't had much snow in recent years - doesn't seem right somehow. Northerly winds just don't seem to get the time to become established these days as they seemed to do in my childhood (albeit I recall both mild as well as cold winters back in the day).

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I must say reading through some of the comments you'd think we live in the artic circle. Winters in Britain are generally mild and the weather we've experienced so far this winter has been pretty much the norm.

The problem is extreme cold, snowy weather from the past sticks in the brain because it's not the norm, fooling the brain that it happened more often than it actually did. I can assure younger readers that many winters in the 70's and 80's were mundane, mild affairs, pretty much like this winter so far. Things really haven't changed that much.

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