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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Yeah, the ONLY positive for the next week or so is HP will control the weather- im already resigned to there being no snow until Mid Jan at the earliest, so anything that doesn;t involve rain gets the thumbs up.

Once these +NAO setups take hold, in my experience, they just don't let up, until its too late most of the time.

 

 

Mid January 2021?! ?

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Morning all Yesterday was one of my favourite Meteorological Winter days of all time - no snowfall but -4c to start the day with a lovely sunrise, frost stayed on the ground at sea level all day,

One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

You could apply that to gale lovers, why would you want a potentially destructive storm causing death, damage, disruption? You could apply that to thunderstorm lovers, why would you want a severe

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On 24/12/2019 at 20:18, Bristle boy said:

"Statistically"?! IMBY - if the last 58 years have seen v few White end Decembers then i guess that is the stats. I do remember cold and snow for a couple of days between Xmas and NYE one year back in early noughties, cant remember exact year, but it stayed around for about 3 days i think. Boxing day 1970 saw a good fall, before the virtually snowless 70s (imby) got going.

2004?

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21 minutes ago, cheese said:

2004?

It was a short-lived easterly in December 2005. Actually quite decent in these parts giving a few cm of snow and an ice day.

As for the models at the moment, totally atrocious. We havent had more than 1cm of snow since January 2013 here now and it doesnt look like changing any time soon. We're not a 'snowy' climate but that's an unusual length of time without anything significant.

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Well, time for a moan on my part.

Looks like my least favourite weather from an interest POV.. cloudy and boring. Maybe slightly better than persistent rain that we've had a lot of.

However a unique factor, but as I kitesurf I could usually make the most of mild winter conditions.. You would expect at least a breeze with such mild temps in winter.
One reason I wasn't feeling as 'disappointed' with the outlook as I may have in the past.

Nope... Not even going to be enough wind down here. Looked like there could have been, but it's going to manage the fine balance between there being enough wind, or the high being overhead and maybe giving some crisp sunny weather. So we will basically get the worst of both worlds for several days on end.

So I won't be able to do that during these holidays either (I could have tomorrow if we weren't visiting family in Birmingham). That's after most weekends in Autumn seemed to see the wind die or become unsuitable after about 4 good days in the working week, and also often feature gloom or persistent rain at weekends :oldrolleyes:

Also looks about right for the wind to come back on the 2nd Jan when I go back to work. Really can't win...

Roll on April.

Edited by Evening thunder
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Next winter may be more likely to be cold based on solar cycle and QBO but that's a year away and a lot can go wrong by then. 

For example, a strong enso event can easily screw up our chances. 

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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Keep the faith people.Big changes coming late January going through much of  Febuary, reading elsewhere ⛷️

The problem with late winter cold is that it usually means that the beginning of spring will be delayed and it can continue into april, also the sun gets stronger so even in just beginning of february the sun melts snow on dark areas with global radiation

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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Keep the faith people.Big changes coming late January going through much of  Febuary, reading elsewhere ⛷️

An early Spring hopefully and the deafening silence of mute chionophiles Oh the joy

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3 minutes ago, karyo said:

Next winter may be more likely to be cold based on solar cycle and QBO but that's a year away and a lot can go wrong by then. 

For example, a strong enso event can easily screw up our chances. 

Indeed karyo -- and those two variables are hardly the strongest of signals either: IMO, the presence (or absense) of a vast pool of warm air, over Southern Europe, ought to be of much more immediate concern... (The QBO's link to SSWs notwithstanding, of course.) ??

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4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

With a little help from my Foehns?:santa-emoji:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Just the last thing we need for housed cattle after two months of humid  mostly calm wet weather resulting in numerous pneumonias in the last few days  needing treatment. in spite of being vaccinated at the begining of November. Putting them outside is not an option as ground so wet all pastures would be destroyed by their feet.

Role on a few cold/frosty breezy days. At least there is a breeze this morning to change the air in the sheds

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Looking very poor for this festive weekend,temps again far to high. To be honest not seeing anything at all in the models to suggest a Winter is now here,very disappointing again. Climate change deniers should take a very hard look at themselves,the uk weather has changed at a remarkable rate,this is not mother Natures doing,it certainly is ours.

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What a load of poo the models are atm, only a week or so ago things where looking potentially exciting around new year but now it’s absolutely s##t to say the least. 
One hope we do have is that a small change in the models will make all the difference later on so keep the chin up people it will all look a lot different in a few days I’m sure.

anyway I love all that Boxing Day footy so that will hopefully keep me away from the models today. Only problem I have now is that blues are pretty much as dump as the models ?

kro 

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As an enthusiastic hill walker, I am really looking forward to this mild benign weather, best weather for hill walking, havent been out hill walking since september because of our hideous weather. The 12 bens in connemara are beautiful to climb, I think i will do BenLettery which is 670 metres above sea level, a lovely soft  grassy surface until the top 100metres which is quite rocky, beautiful scenes looking out onto the atlantic ocean to the west and the bens to the east. What a treat for december.

Edited by Minus 10
typo
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17 minutes ago, markyo said:

Looking very poor for this festive weekend,temps again far to high. To be honest not seeing anything at all in the models to suggest a Winter is now here,very disappointing again. Climate change deniers should take a very hard look at themselves,the uk weather has changed at a remarkable rate,this is not mother Natures doing,it certainly is ours.

Not unusual to have mild winters though. In fact, it is more unusual to have cold winters in Southern UK, at least. My earlier post from a couple of days ago outlines last 50 years (in summary) for these parts.

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4 hours ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Looking to summer already in all honesty. Down here we always get at least a few days of +30c even in a poor summer year. Cannot say the same for snow and ice days!

Yeah, but that doesn’t make the summer great does it. We’ve achieved 30c, in the southeast every summer going all the way back to 1975, but there’s been some long periods of cool and mediocre spells.

It will be really annoying if we end up with a mild winter, then a bland summer where temps are stuck in the 21-23c region with cloudy and dreary conditions. 

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37 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Not unusual to have mild winters though. In fact, it is more unusual to have cold winters in Southern UK, at least. My earlier post from a couple of days ago outlines last 50 years (in summary) for these parts.

I disagree,the rate of change is the key. Mild winters occur,but the stats speak for themselves. The rate with which we are experiencing them is far out stripping any liner rise or fall you would expect naturally,surely you must agree? The last 50 years data proves it without doubt. Look at the frequency of record breaking figures across the globe year after year now. The climate has changed at a rate never seen before,sorry but that is fact,not my opinion but fact. The driving force is ourselves, anybody who believes other wise is just bearing their head in the sand. Sorry.

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58 minutes ago, markyo said:

Looking very poor for this festive weekend,temps again far to high. To be honest not seeing anything at all in the models to suggest a Winter is now here,very disappointing again. Climate change deniers should take a very hard look at themselves,the uk weather has changed at a remarkable rate,this is not mother Natures doing,it certainly is ours.

I think you need to be corrected on that. My uncle tells me(sorry I have to refer to my uncle time and time again, he was born in 1948) the winters of the 1970s were mild and damp, and even winters of the 80s were disappointing. 1980/81 had very little snow, and 82/83 was very disappointing from a southeast perspective. 
 

1974/75 was another terrible winter for lack of snow. 
 

People seem to also forget, that up until 6 years ago, we had experienced some of the coldest winter spells since the 1978/79 and even as far back as 1910. 

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5 minutes ago, markyo said:

I disagree,the rate of change is the key. Mild winters occur,but the stats speak for themselves. The rate with which we are experiencing them is far out stripping any liner rise or fall you would expect naturally,surely you must agree? The last 50 years data proves it without doubt. .

A warming has been gradually taking place since the mid 1970s, but the UK weather has always been unpredictable.

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2 hours ago, karyo said:

Next winter may be more likely to be cold based on solar cycle and QBO but that's a year away and a lot can go wrong by then. 

For example, a strong enso event can easily screw up our chances. 

Also need to see a better North Atlantic SST profile develop, a cooling of the SST’s the the North East Pacific, plus no more than a moderate ENSO, be it Nino or Nina.

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8 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I think you need to be corrected on that. My uncle tells me(sorry I have to refer to my uncle time and time again, he was born in 1948) the winters of the 1970s were mild and damp, and even winters of the 80s were disappointing. 1980/81 had very little snow, and 82/83 was very disappointing from a southeast perspective. 
 

1974/75 was another terrible winter for lack of snow. 
 

People seem to also forget, that up until 6 years ago, we had experienced some of the coldest winter spells since the 1978/79 and even as far back as 1910. 

Your not getting it at all. I lived through the 60's 70's,80's. You quote certain winters and certain areas, that is not the full picture. Yes the climate has been warming,it's the rate it's now warming that is the issue. Its not linear,a external factor,ie humans are causing this. Just look at the planet as a whole and not just certain winters or the southeast perspective. We have changed the climate,near enough every climate scientist now agrees. Now is not the time to deny it i'm afraid,sorry. 

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16 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I think you need to be corrected on that. My uncle tells me(sorry I have to refer to my uncle time and time again, he was born in 1948) the winters of the 1970s were mild and damp, and even winters of the 80s were disappointing. 1980/81 had very little snow, and 82/83 was very disappointing from a southeast perspective. 
 

1974/75 was another terrible winter for lack of snow. 
 

People seem to also forget, that up until 6 years ago, we had experienced some of the coldest winter spells since the 1978/79 and even as far back as 1910. 

Ugh..still traumatised by the winter of 1974/75. Was genuinely rank. We had more snow in October of 1974 than in the entire winter which followed.

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32 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Yeah, but that doesn’t make the summer great does it. We’ve achieved 30c, in the southeast every summer going all the way back to 1975, but there’s been some long periods of cool and mediocre spells.

It will be really annoying if we end up with a mild winter, then a bland summer where temps are stuck in the 21-23c region with cloudy and dreary conditions. 

Yes, but at least 30c does occur every summer. 

Most winters we are chasing shadows and up with sod all.

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