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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Och well, once the weekend's wind and rain become but a distant memory, the 12Z holds some reason for optimism:

For those wanting warmth...h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

For those wanting cold:       h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

What could possibly go wrong!?

WIN - WIN - To be honest I'm ready for spring now, winter is done and any cold now is becoming less welcome at this point as we head into spring.  There is a time and a place after all...  

 

 

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Morning all Yesterday was one of my favourite Meteorological Winter days of all time - no snowfall but -4c to start the day with a lovely sunrise, frost stayed on the ground at sea level all day,

One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

You could apply that to gale lovers, why would you want a potentially destructive storm causing death, damage, disruption? You could apply that to thunderstorm lovers, why would you want a severe

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34 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

God! that ecm 12z is bad, hop from 72z to 216z and more or less you're looking at the same chart! :wallbash:

The gfs latest run is the horror show of Horror Shows with a ghoulish rain train rattling along the overly Familiar Track West To east out staying its welcome and scaring the pants of us with its deluge of Rainfall and Wind haunting us out into the realms of FI..... 

Edited by Snowfish2
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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

The ECM day 10 chart is an absolute horror show....massive PV and low arctic heights all over. Strong +AO on display again. Wave bye bye to February.

Wind and rain. I like it ?

It's not actually that mild either - cool wind and rain, which is even better!

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It actually felt sort of almost wintery today, cool with a brisk windchill.  Still only needed a t-shirt and light coat, but a week ago I was walking to the gym in just a t-shirt, in mid winter lol   

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3 hours ago, cheese said:

It’s the driest month of the year on average here, only 37mm for the 1981-2010 period.

As for snow in April - we had about 2cm on the 29th of April 2016. Only two days away from being a rare May snowfall. All melted well before noon though obviously.

Indeed; certainly not a time of year associated with rain and gales.

That was a notable cold spell! I think the further north you were the better. Down here there was some snow in the showers on the 26th but the main enjoyment factor was the convective skies and thunder.

14th April 1999 remains the latest snowfall here in my lifetime.

Edited by MP-R
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1 hour ago, Beanz said:

WIN - WIN - To be honest I'm ready for spring now, winter is done and any cold now is becoming less welcome at this point as we head into spring.  There is a time and a place after all...  

Beanz meanz Heinz? God, I'm old!?

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In South Tyneside there were snow showers on the afternoon and evening of 6 May 1997 and my records state that one of the heavier showers even provided a sprinkling on the ground, though of course it melted almost immediately.  The region had some sleety showers overnight 11/12 May 1995 and again on 11 May 2010.  Snow in April is more common there and there was some lying snow on 12 April 1998, 13/14 April 1999 and 6/7 April 2008, although on each occasion it was short lived.  There was snow which didn't lie on 18 and 19 April 1995, 4 April 2000, 18 April 2001, 8 April 2005, 8 April 2006, 3 April 2012, and in late April 2016 and 2017.  Further north I recall seeing reports of lying snow in the Aberdeen area near the end of April 2015.

Also, in my current neck of the woods, I recall people from the Exeter area reporting a dusting of snow early on 6 April 2008 and locally even thundersnow, although naturally it is more rare in the south-west peninsula.  It wasn't cold enough for snow here in the late April cold snaps of 2015, 2016 or 2017, but there was thunder and fairly large hail in the 2017 one.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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 Over the last 60 years ( I’m 64 now ) I’ve noticed a real change in winter weather.

when I was young in the 60’s, we always had at least two or three snow events per season, and that was outside the winter of 62/63. When it wasn’t snowing we had long cold frosty days, when you could put water on the ground and it would freeze almost instantly, or the frost never lifted throughout the day. Either that or there was always snow preceding rain, or cold cloudy days with snow flurries.

i thought the 90’s and 00’s were bad for cold winters, but the last decade was worse with the only winter remotely resembling my childhood 2017/18. 
 

How long does it have to be before the average temperature for January is adjusted upwards ?
 

I think in these parts it’s around 6 degrees C, but we rarely have constant maximum temperatures in January at those levels, and often continually at 10 or 11. 

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4 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Roll on spring  I’ve had enough of this pain . ❄️ 

I agree. It’s been a tiring winter and unlike some, I believe that March is a Spring month with no place for cold and snow.

Models are hinting at some very mild conditions. We will see!

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1 hour ago, Northern Sky said:

Wind and rain. I like it ?

It's not actually that mild either - cool wind and rain, which is even better!

I so agree, this winter hasn't seen any prolonged exceptionally mild periods thank god, been quite interesting actually, look forward to next winter. Anything beats Summer boredom. 

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23 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Years with an AO value of +1> in Feb were 1959, 1967, 1976, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2011, 2015 and 2019.

Only 2002, 2000, 1995, 1992 and 1976 saw the vortex relent to a +1< value in March.

The batch that relent basically stay westerly but a more north/split, the batch that don’t are actually quite warm and settled.

Except 2002 which took until the equinox to settle down. That final week was very pleasant.

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1 hour ago, topo said:

I think that both 1989 and 1990 had also a record vortex but no cold in March or April...

April 1989 was cold.

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2 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

Roll on spring  I’ve had enough of this pain . ❄️ 

 Yep, me too. 
 

Heavy snow showers here on Monday evening, but it didn’t lie. Slight covering on the roof of my shed yesterday morning, and snow showers throughout the day, but no lying snow, other than on the hills behind me. Last night was quite icy.

I’m really getting fed up with this winter now, but we’ve still another 7 weeks of the dark evenings. Winter really does drag at this point. 

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8 hours ago, Peter H said:

 Over the last 60 years ( I’m 64 now ) I’ve noticed a real change in winter weather.

when I was young in the 60’s, we always had at least two or three snow events per season, and that was outside the winter of 62/63. When it wasn’t snowing we had long cold frosty days, when you could put water on the ground and it would freeze almost instantly, or the frost never lifted throughout the day. Either that or there was always snow preceding rain, or cold cloudy days with snow flurries.

i thought the 90’s and 00’s were bad for cold winters, but the last decade was worse with the only winter remotely resembling my childhood 2017/18. 
 

How long does it have to be before the average temperature for January is adjusted upwards ?
 

I think in these parts it’s around 6 degrees C, but we rarely have constant maximum temperatures in January at those levels, and often continually at 10 or 11. 

What year did you notice the change or at what point do you notice a gradual shift? 70s, 1987, or some other point?

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5 hours ago, Peter H said:

 Yep, me too. 
 

Heavy snow showers here on Monday evening, but it didn’t lie. Slight covering on the roof of my shed yesterday morning, and snow showers throughout the day, but no lying snow, other than on the hills behind me. Last night was quite icy.

I’m really getting fed up with this winter now, but we’ve still another 7 weeks of the dark evenings. Winter really does drag at this point. 

Once we hit March, I see that as light at the end of the tunnel, even if it remains dark, cold or miserable. March is the transitional month.

Real warmth of nice weather probably won’t arrive until April though. I still see the heavy jackets on commuters, and until I start to see more of them outnumbered by the light jacket people, it’s still cold season.

Edited by Sunny76
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1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

What year did you notice the change or at what point do you notice a gradual shift? 70s, 1987, or some other point?

The turning point in my mind was December 1988, since then winters have generally been milder and summers generally warmer.

If you compare CET averages between 1961 -90 and 1981- 2010 there is a big difference, when the CET is updated to 1991 to 2020 the trend will continue. 

Andy

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1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

Once we hit March, I see that as light at the end of the tunnel, even if it remains dark, cold or miserable. March is the transitional month.

Real warmth of nice weather probably won’t arrive until April though. I still see the heavy jackets on commuters, and until I start to see more of them outnumbered by the light jacket people, it’s still cold season.

I always think back to that wonderful hot spell in April 2003 - 27c on the 16th/17th. By mid April you can really get some warm spells, even better for some as they are minus the July intensity!

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10 hours ago, topo said:

I think that both 1989 and 1990 had also a record vortex but no cold in March or April...

Coldest night back here than we`ve had all this winter at -4c yes cold NWlys april 1990.

Rrea00119900404.gif

Well this winter can be compared to 2013/14 if the last half of february brings atlantic SWly garbage which the high to the south east has been the most annoying pain in the backside all winter then it will rate lower.

 

Edited by Snowyowl9
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3 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

The turning point in my mind was December 1988, since then winters have generally been milder and summers generally warmer.

If you compare CET averages between 1961 -90 and 1981- 2010 there is a big difference, when the CET is updated to 1991 to 2020 the trend will continue. 

Andy

Average CET for Winter per decade

1940s  3.65

1950s 3.92

1960s  3.14

1970s  4.35

1980s  4.1

1990s  4.76

00  4.99

Teens 4.73

last 6 years  5.48

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13 hours ago, Peter H said:

 Over the last 60 years ( I’m 64 now ) I’ve noticed a real change in winter weather.

when I was young in the 60’s, we always had at least two or three snow events per season, and that was outside the winter of 62/63. When it wasn’t snowing we had long cold frosty days, when you could put water on the ground and it would freeze almost instantly, or the frost never lifted throughout the day. Either that or there was always snow preceding rain, or cold cloudy days with snow flurries.

i thought the 90’s and 00’s were bad for cold winters, but the last decade was worse with the only winter remotely resembling my childhood 2017/18. 
 

How long does it have to be before the average temperature for January is adjusted upwards ?
 

I think in these parts it’s around 6 degrees C, but we rarely have constant maximum temperatures in January at those levels, and often continually at 10 or 11. 

I have arrived in this country in the 1990's and even in this time period I can tell there is a shift to milder winters. Not only that, but in the last few winters there is almost a complete lack of cold spells which makes the weather particularly boring.

Average temperatures are only achieved for the minority of the time. Even a slight morning frost is something to talk about these days.

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