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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Morning all Yesterday was one of my favourite Meteorological Winter days of all time - no snowfall but -4c to start the day with a lovely sunrise, frost stayed on the ground at sea level all day,

One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

You could apply that to gale lovers, why would you want a potentially destructive storm causing death, damage, disruption? You could apply that to thunderstorm lovers, why would you want a severe

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Done some research on the link between solar activity and the winter CET's recorded since the beginning of solar cycle 1 that started with the winter of 1754/1755.

I have split the results into different stages within solar cycles as well as if it is an odd or even cycle or a transition between odd to even or even to odd at minimum as well.

The following is what I got ordered from mildest solar cycle stage to coldest stage for winters in the UK

Solar Max Odd                                          December        January            February        Overall Winter
            Averages                                       3.98C               3.10C               5.52C             4.20C
            Anomaly                                        -0.26 Colder     -0.29 Colder    +1.56 Milder   +0.34 MILDER

Solar Max Even                                         December        January            February        Overall Winter
            Averages                                        3.84C               4.52C               3.91C            4.09C
            Anomaly                                         -0.40 Colder     +1.13 Milder     -0.05 Colder  +0.23 MILDER

Solar Min Even to Odd                              December        January            February        Overall Winter
            Averages                                       5.05C                3.13C               4.06C            4.08C
            Anomaly                                        +0.81 Milder      -0.26 Colder     +0.10 Milder  +0.22 MILDER

Ascending Even Cycle Min to Max            December        January            February        Overall Winter
            Average                                         4.08C                3.09C               4.78C             3.98C
            Anomaly                                         -0.16 Colder     -0.30 Colder     +0.82 Milder   +0.12 MILDER

Descending Even Cycle Max to Min          December        January            February        Overall Winter
            Averages                                        4.43C               3.41C               3.79C             3.88C
            Anomaly                                         +0.19 Milder     +0.02 Milder     -0.17 Colder   +0.02 MILDER

Descending Odd Cycle Max to Min            December        January            February        Overall Winter
            Average                                          4.42C                3.57C               3.52C             3.84C
            Anomaly                                         +0.18 Milder      +0.18 Milder     -0.44 Colder   -0.02 COLDER

Ascending Odd Cycle Min to Max              December        January            February        Overall Winter
            Average                                          4.01C               3.28C               3.89C              3.73C
            Anomaly                                          -0.23 Colder    -0.11 Colder     -0.07 Colder    -0.13 COLDER

Solar Min Odd to Even                                December        January           February        Overall Winter
            Averages                                         3.29C                2.86C              3.49C             3.21C
            Anomaly                                          -0.95 Colder      -0.53 Colder    -0.47 Colder   -0.65 COLDER

Overall Averages        Dec1754 to Dec2018    Jan1755 to Jan2019    Feb1755 to Feb2019    Overall Winters Dec1754 to Feb2019
                                    4.24C                            3.39C                           3.96C                            3.86C

Overall it seems odd solar cycles are colder overall or transitioning out of an odd cycle to an even one whilst the even cycles are overall milder

Solar maximum is mildest overall as expected with odd maximums ahead of the even maximums.
    The odd solar max figure is overall +0.34C MILDER for winters
    The even solar max figure is overall +0.23C MILDER for winters
    Odd solar maximums favour a front loaded winter whilst the even solar maximums favour a mild January
Next comes to my surprise Solar minimum when transitioning from an even solar cycle to an odd numbered one. Winter 2019/2020 is probably one of these winters
    The even to odd solar cycle transition is overall +0.22C MILDER for winters
    This is in fact almost the same as having a solar maximum winter anomaly
    January is most favoured for cold based on the averages but there are some exceptions in the data, January 2020 is clearly going to be another exception
    December is most favoured to be the mildest month in the even to odd solar minimum stage
Next comes Ascending Even Cycle from minimum to maximum
    This favours an overall +0.12C MILDER than average winters
    A front loaded winter is most likely followed by quite a mild February overall
    2010/2011 is a classic example of the above pattern.
This is followed by the final milder option with Descending Even cycle maximum to minimum
    This favours an overall +0.02C MILDER than average winter and could be said to be basically average
    A back loaded winter is favoured overall with slightly milder December's and January's
    February is most likely to be colder than average
Next comes the Descending Odd cycle maximum to minimum
    This favours an overall -0.02C COLDER than average winter and is more or less average again
    As with the descending even cycle winters these ones also favour a back loaded winter
    The anomalies are slightly colder and overall these winters are marginally colder than the descending even cycle ones
    February yet again comes away with a cold anomaly but more severe than the descending even cycle February's
The next option is Ascending Odd cycles minimum to maximum
    This favours an overall -0.13C COLDER than average winter so slightly below normal on average
    Unlike ascending even cycles that favour milder conditions it seems ascending odd cycles favour colder winters
    All winter months come out colder than average overall with December better placed to be the coldest of the three
    THIS LOOKS PROMISING FOR THE NEXT 2 - 4 WINTERS FROM 2020 TO 2022-2024 AFTER THIS MILD FEST OF A 2019/2020 WINTER
The final option is Solar minimum when transitioning from an odd solar cycle to an even solar cycle
    This favours an overall -0.65C COLDER than average winter.
    2008/2009 was one of these winters and it was indeed colder than average
    All of the winter months come out colder than average overall, especially the December's
    We'll have to wait and see but around 2030 we could get quite a severe winter, especially if solar cycle 25 ends up another weak one

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With this winter being close to solar minimum I would have expected more cold out of this winter than it has delivered.  With this winter looking to be just about as poor for cold as 2013-14 was, which was near solar maximum, and further back, close to solar minimum I think that winter 2007-08 was just about as poor for cold overall as this winter has been, it makes one seriously question if a prolonged wintry spell can ever develop in the UK.  Okay, this winter may never have been likely to deliver anything like 2009-10, but near solar minimum should have helped a proper cold spell to manifest itself at some point, but it hasn't.

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Oh well, as expected I didn’t see any wintry precipitation last night, so I guess this will be one of those winters where I fail to see any falling snow!

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7 hours ago, cheese said:

Getting pretty bored of this freezing cold wind now, bring back the high pressure please!

agree today, been a pain with no snow, February does seem to suck though, often nowadays wet and windy and 13 degrees, more like autumn

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15 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

agree today, been a pain with no snow, February does seem to suck though, often nowadays wet and windy and 13 degrees, more like autumn

At least today has felt like winter rather than autumn or spring!  Agree, the lack of snow has been disappointing, though.

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Fort William 5c heavy rain /ice pellets, with gale force winds all day. Hardly any rest from the showers. Not good for taking photos. The good news, just travel to higher ground and see Shaw. Some good accumulations in places. I am starting to like high ground

Edited by stevofunnelcl
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10 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Snowing in Baghdad

 

It's incredible. I'm ethnically Iraqi. To think that if I had spent the winter living in Baghdad I'd have seen more snow than living here in London. I remember when I last visited a few years ago, and my relatives all thought it snows all winter in London, that I am getting everything they're missing out on. Hilarious, after today, they couldn't be more wrong.

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2 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

With this winter being close to solar minimum I would have expected more cold out of this winter than it has delivered.  With this winter looking to be just about as poor for cold as 2013-14 was, which was near solar maximum, and further back, close to solar minimum I think that winter 2007-08 was just about as poor for cold overall as this winter has been, it makes one seriously question if a prolonged wintry spell can ever develop in the UK.  Okay, this winter may never have been likely to deliver anything like 2009-10, but near solar minimum should have helped a proper cold spell to manifest itself at some point, but it hasn't.

Unfortunately it takes lots of pieces of the puzzle to get a notable cold spell these days. Obviously going off this Winter low solar activity isn't the most important factor. It's very telling that somewhere as high as snake pass (510m) has not even been shut because of snow this Winter - not once. Most probably a consequence of the climate gradually getting milder. I remember lots of times in the past when it was frequently shut for days at a time. 

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3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

agree today, been a pain with no snow, February does seem to suck though, often nowadays wet and windy and 13 degrees, more like autumn

Last February was nice.

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9 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Unfortunately it takes lots of pieces of the puzzle to get a notable cold spell these days. Obviously going off this Winter low solar activity isn't the most important factor. It's very telling that somewhere as high as snake pass (510m) has not even been shut because of snow this Winter - not once. Most probably a consequence of the climate gradually getting milder. I remember lots of times in the past when it was frequently shut for days at a time. 

Well we have had a number of winters in the past that were just as poor for cold as this one has been - 2013-14 definitely was, but that was close to solar maximum and in a westerly QBO - generally not conducive to cold in the UK.  Winter 2007-08 was just as or almost as poor for cold as this one has been - which was a let down considering it had an easterly QBO and approaching solar minimum, but I suspect a strong La Nina that year ruined that winter from being cold, which a strong ENSO anomaly either way is generally not conducive to cold for the UK.  Further back 1997-98 was also poor, which had a strong El Nino, and the winters of 1998-99, 1999-2000 and 2001-02 were all generally poor for cold, but they were near solar maximum and the former two had a strong La Nina.

More recently, winter 2015-16 was highly unlikely to have been cold when you factor in the strong La Nina and a westerly QBO that year.  When you put all this into perspective, even if winter 2019-20 was never likely to have been a classic cold winter, the chances of cold outbreaks this winter should have been better than all the other poor winters I have mentioned above, given us being near a solar minimum and no strong ENSO anomaly.  With the way this winter has turned out with the background signals that it has had, one has to seriously question what has gone wrong with this winter, and it still delivering so little, puts a serious question that the trend away from cold in the UK has stepped up a gear since 2013, and that it is no longer realistically possible for a prolonged spell of wintry weather to develop.

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21 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

.  With the way this winter has turned out with the background signals that it has had, one has to seriously question what has gone wrong with this winter, and it still delivering so little, puts a serious question that the trend away from cold in the UK has stepped up a gear since 2013, and that it is no longer realistically possible for a prolonged spell of wintry weather to develop.

Forgive me mods

THE RECENT MAGNITUDE OF THE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE 

 

 

Winter CETs for 1910-11 to 1914-15, a very deep solar minimum

1910-11 5.0

1911-12: 5.1

1912-13: 5.3

1913-14: 5.3

1914-15: 4.3

 

Edited by Weather-history
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Well I have to say we`ve had more snow showers than expected from this another extra dusting and snowing big flakes this morning,seems like snow showers are forming over the mountains in this case.

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28 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Forgive me mods

THE RECENT MAGNITUDE OF THE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE 

 

 

Winter CETs for 1910-11 to 1914-15, a very deep solar minimum

1910-11 5.0

1911-12: 5.1

1912-13: 5.3

1913-14: 5.3

1914-15: 4.3

 

I'm personally a little sceptical of the IDOs impact on our Winter.

The PV has remained omnipotent even though the IDO has wained.

Australia has gone from record heat and fire to low temperatures and flood as the IDO eased, in North Western Europe the weather has stayed almost the same with a rampant PV.

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm personally a little sceptical of the IDOs impact on our Winter.

The PV has remained omnipotent even though the IDO has wained.

Australia has gone from record heat and fire to low temperatures and flood as the IDO eased, in North Western Europe the weather has stayed almost the same with a rampant PV.

Bit unfair to blame all of this rubbish winter on @IDO isn't it??! ?

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6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Whoops. IOD. 

Seriously though - I'm sure the IOD battered the first half of winter to a pulp and encouraged a strong PV to form. Could it be it just set the wheels in motion so much so that it couldn't be shifted? Hard to remember a more robust PV from top to bottom in recent years, any slight warmings have been brushed away pretty quickly. We've had a record AO, as a well as a couple of date record zonal wind speeds broken. Or are there other factors driving it? Anyone?

Edited by mb018538
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Not to best of winters this year it has to be said    Seen a few snowflakes which hasnt made it a total bust.  Next few days however look very grim  The wind speeds may be a tad lower than last weekend  however the  rainfall in most areas looks to be very high  espicially over Wales.  And when that rainwater spills into the rivers  i expect major flooding 

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27 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm personally a little sceptical of the IDOs impact on our Winter.

The PV has remained omnipotent even though the IDO has wained.

Australia has gone from record heat and fire to low temperatures and flood as the IDO eased, in North Western Europe the weather has stayed almost the same with a rampant PV.

Catacol is probably the best to ask about this but what just got me was talking about background signals and totally ignoring about the state of the IOD. You can't ignore it was that intense, you have to look at it as a possibility. 

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13 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

agree today, been a pain with no snow, February does seem to suck though, often nowadays wet and windy and 13 degrees, more like autumn

Can’t think of many Februaries that fit that description...

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3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Forgive me mods

THE RECENT MAGNITUDE OF THE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE 

 

 

Winter CETs for 1910-11 to 1914-15, a very deep solar minimum

1910-11 5.0

1911-12: 5.1

1912-13: 5.3

1913-14: 5.3

1914-15: 4.3

 

So as you rightly point out only one of those winters was close to average; the other four were all in the milder category, and of particular note the February of the 1913-14 winter was extremely mild.  Of particular interest does anyone have any previous stats on previous winters that had a strong Indian Ocean Dipole?  It would be of particular interest to see how other winters in the UK turned out that had a strong IOD to make a comparison with this one, to see if such a pattern is generally not conducive to cold in the UK.  With only this one to go on and not knowing what any previous winters were like during a strong IOD it is impossible to know how this winter compares.  

It now seems as though a strong ocean temperature anomaly in any of the oceans like ENSO or IOD ruins the chances of favourable patterns developing to get cold air to the UK.  Something also obviously went wrong in 2013-14 to result in a rubbish winter for the UK but does anyone know what did?

With a closer to average winter in 2017-18 and a fairly cold February that year, and the best winter since 2012-13, hopes were raised that the UK was starting to get some better winters again after a pretty poor mid 2010s period, but this winter, and the one in 2018-19, have reversed the UK into very poor winters again from a cold perspective, and makes one question if the 2017-18 winter is the modern version of 2009-10 or even 2012-13, and that it is no longer possible for a prolonged spell of severe wintry weather to develop again, considering that the poor winter this year and the one a year ago in 2018-19 have brought so little, and we are close to solar minimum with no strong ENSO anomaly.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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