Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[swfc]

GFS 12z is a shocker.its becoming obvious that chasing low minimum temps is showing how poor the outlook is.

[igloo]

46 minutes ago, swfc said:

GFS 12z is a shocker.its becoming obvious that chasing low minimum temps is showing how poor the outlook is.

it does I think we are chasing rainbows this season. any HP looks very unlickly to move far enough North and we end with bartlett after bartlett.the AO and NAO are set to decline somewhat from mid month but as you can see there still forecasted to be very much on the positive side such a shame.

Edited January 10, 2020 by igloo

[Carl46Wrexham]

On 08/01/2020 at 11:42, Froze were the Days said:

What at 300z + hours?...I don't even bother looking at the GFS anymore.

Jam tomorrow charts which never verify are one of the hallmarks of a crap winter.

Soon you’ll be reading posts like ‘February is often the coldest month’ ‘Plenty of time yet’

Then once March arrives, references to March 2013...until finally defeat is conceded.

 

[Carl46Wrexham]

On 08/01/2020 at 15:52, Nick L said:

I think that's partly why this winter has been so awful all round. If we can't get snow, a cold high pressure would be nice as at least we'd get sunshine. If we can't even get that, then at least be stormy - something interesting. This mild, drab rubbish suits nobody.

No thanks. Stormy weather is more often than not accompanied by lots of rain, which would be as welcome as a fart in a spacesuit after the ridiculously wet spell we recently endured.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

What happened to the MJO and the full moon effect ? 

Edited January 10, 2020 by prolongedSnowLover

[swfc]

13 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

What happened to the MJO and the full moon effect ? 

It's on its way to Jupiter!!!

[Sceptical]

Here we go again, up the garden path

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Here we go again, up the garden path

it's hard to see..non transition. ..the pack has  to give at some point. ..and as mentioned. ..with the formats on offer. ....could be a worthy wait indeed !???

[Frosty_wsm]

38 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Here we go again, up the garden path

With that kind of negative attitude why do you even bother looking at what the models are showing, genuine question?? 

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Smartie said:

With that kind of negative attitude why do you even bother looking at what the models are showing, genuine question?? 

I do see his point. The prospects for cold are still dire, just not quite as dire as the other day. And it’s all still well into FI.

[abruzzi spur]

2 hours ago, tight isobar said:

it's hard to see..non transition. ..the pack has  to give at some point. ..and as mentioned. ..with the formats on offer. ....could be a worthy wait indeed !???

As we gain?

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

There is some interest but its so very hard to have faith in anything that would depart us from this awful pattern that has,by and large totally dominated since early Dec.

EC appears to be more bullish but that model has burned me so many times i'm a bit sceptical.

Its very quiet in here at the moment- maybe there are more doubting Thomas's like me out there

 

Not so much doubting Thomas's just fed up 

 

[swfc]

8 hours ago, abruzzi spur said:

As we gain?

Tbh these musings,forcing,formats and transition have been posted since late November!!!!

[mb018538]

10 hours ago, Smartie said:

With that kind of negative attitude why do you even bother looking at what the models are showing, genuine question?? 

Completely irrelevant. If we all have a over-positive attitude will it make it really cold with loads of snow then? 

[E17boy]

While we wait for a pattern change  I took the above images last night over Walthamstow East London  at 11.30pm from my garden. The circle around the moon amazing.

hope you all have a great Saturday 

regards

[Penrith Snow]

Before writing winter off I said I would give it till mid January but I now fear we have gone beyond saving this winter into anything reasonable.

We need i think to look at very miild first half winters from previous year and see what happened in February.

When we look at winters like 1975, 1989, 1990, 1998, 2007 we see that all those Februaries where generally mild, however, they tended to be cooler than the previous two months with some cold and snow.

This is likely to come from cold northerly or north westerly winds and I think the chances of a cold easterly are extremely very low.

Even the very mild February of 1998 brought a cold, snowy north westerly at the end and a northerly in mid February 1989 brought snow to many central and northern areas.

So I think Steve M is correct in throwing in the towel for a cold mid-Late winter but one or two spells of cold even snowy weather are ikely in February even if the month is still likely to bring temperatures a .little above average.

All very disappointing for a low solar winter and coming after a crap snow less winter last year is depressing indeed.

Andy

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Convergence said:

... we're finally seeing some tentative but inconsistent nuggets 

That's just what I tell myself when opting for a Burger King!

[Summer Sun]

Top wind gust in the past hour is shown to be 106mph in north Wales. Parts of the pennies are not far behind with gusts around 95mph.

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Just model reaction to potential Mjo but will collapse nearer time frame...Seen it so many times?...False hope with such a strong Vortax...Suspect were looking at the best a high over us but reckon it will be West SW...Mild to West winds. Nothing really changing this Winter.

I’m h-a-p-p-y I’m h-a-p-p-y I know I am I’m sure I am......... Cmon @Steve Murr join the fun of a decent run

Edited January 11, 2020 by That ECM

[E17boy]

23 hours ago, E17boy said:

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER

Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it would be a season where I would get my cold service delivered. 

I am utterly dissatisfied with the service I have had from your staff so far which I can explain as follows

Mr solar advised his part would be at the minimum end of the scale this season and that would help. Up to now I have not had any satisfaction from this nor any goods.

MJO one of your senior drivers has missed my phase 7 and 8 which was ideal for my goods instead it ends up in the undesirable.

Your data input team GFS and ECM, CFS not forgetting GEM  have all failed to deliver what they promised they would in the 16 day cycle. GFS has been like the Bermuda Triangle showing me tasty data which then mysteriously disappears.

Mr cold has had a bad several weeks his competitor Mr mild has taken most of your business.

Finally Mr high pressure i think he needs training in how to stand and in what position. What the hell has he been playing at when he knows he should be North not south.

Considering we are midway through our contract period I suggest you make some dramatic changes otherwise a new Director called Spring will be knocking on your door early. Where are all the other exceptional talented staff you had Mr East, Mr North, Mr Siberia East Wind, these have provided me with a good service in the past. I would suggest you move Mr high pressure north and allow your old experience back.

I hope an improvement in my service over what is left of this season .

Yours sincerely 

Completely dissatisfied cold seeker
 

Well I did complain maybe winter is putting  its act together at last

[SqueakheartLW]

56 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

But to balance things out, just trying to be level headed there are 3 or 4 that are near on Bartletts.

Hey FiftyShadesofSnow, don't start spoiling it already

[SqueakheartLW]

52 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

P19 is ridiculous! Looks a bit like January 2003, one of the best snow events I can remember down here. M11 closed with loads of snow.

I remember that January 2003 so well. Was at college and got a bit of an easterly early in the month that for me in North Lincolnshire was a bit of a letdown. However the snow event at the end of the month made up for that big time. Gale force nne winds and lots of very heavy snow showers and whiteout conditions at times during some of the showers that came. Would love to see snow showers that heavy and frequent again.

[knocker]

I very much dislike the continuous and repetitive use of the words, 'dross' and 'boring' about the the current and recent weather. From where I'm sitting, from the meteorological perspective it has been far from either. This subjective and brief analysis, is, well, just dross and boring.

[LRD]

48 minutes ago, IDO said:

Not really seeing a change in pattern to cold in the last half of January for the UK?

Looking at the D10 ECM means:

That takes us to the last week or so of January and average uppers at best! The GEFS offers similar:

So neither suggests a change. Looking at the D16 mean on the GEFS:

 With current: 

...and we have gone full circle, tPV draining to Siberia and then returning across the Arctic fields back to NE Canada. In such a scenario we would expect a temporary lull in heights to the NW as this cycle completes. Maybe we can get a topple out of it, or a wedge of heights leaking north; but this to me, on what I can see, is the same-old same-old in a repeating zonal pattern with the odd interlude of a mini-ridge? Anyways we will see...

Weather and climate is a science

Weather-watching is an, often, unscientific hobby which is all about hope and looking for things that support what you want. Some people on here take a bit of a superior stance and sneer at that. I say let people believe and hope and hang their coats on whatever signals are out there. If they want to open themselves up to disappointment then it's up to them. Those who want cold and snow probably even know it won't amount to anything, deep-down, but what's wrong with a bit of unscientific hope when viewing models that are, finally, showing a seasonal outlook

Snow and cold charts have been so few and far between this winter, you probably understand that people will be very eager to talk about them, when they do emerge, and WANT to get their hopes up that something will happen

Your post is valid. Your realism is probably going to be proved right because of the general trend in the climate but I can't help but detect just a little bit of, er, over-enthusiasm in your posts when trying to pour cold (or mild) water on those aforementioned hopes. The nature of your posts are like VAR in football - technically correct in reality but they don't half suck the fun out of things and kill the sport

This post will probably get deleted and I might get a ban but, Christ, this winter has been absolutely no fun and, then, just when something of interest might be emerging we're looking to crush it straight away. Fair enough, maybe you're being community-spirited and saving people from disappointment. Who knows?

But we're grown-ups on here and people probably don't need telling that it's unlikely any of the FI charts will come off. They fully understand that. 

Edited January 11, 2020 by LRD

[Frosty_wsm]

23 minutes ago, LRD said:

Weather and climate is a science

Weather-watching is an, often, unscientific hobby which is all about hope and looking for things that support what you want. Some people on here take a bit of a superior stance and sneer at that. I say let people believe and hope and hang their coats on whatever signals are out there. If they want to open themselves up to disappointment then it's up to them. Those who want cold and snow probably even know it won't amount to anything, deep-down, but what's wrong with a bit of unscientific hope when viewing models that are, finally, showing a seasonal outlook

Snow and cold charts have been so few and far between this winter, you probably understand that people will be very eager to talk about them, when they do emerge, and WANT to get their hopes up that something will happen

Your post is valid. Your realism is probably going to be proved right because of the general trend in the climate but I can't help but detect just a little bit of, er, over-enthusiasm in your posts when trying to pour cold (or mild) water on those aforementioned hopes. The nature of your posts are like VAR in football - technically correct in reality but they don't half suck the fun out of things and kill the sport

This post will probably get deleted and I might get a ban but, Christ, this winter has been absolutely no fun and, then, just when something of interest might be emerging we're looking to crush it straight away. Fair enough, maybe you're being community-spirited and saving people from disappointment. Who knows?

But we're grown-ups on here and people probably don't need telling that it's unlikely any of the FI charts will come off. They fully understand that. 

Agree 100%, some just seem to like being pessimistic, the glass half empty attitude but as you say, where's the fun in that & chasing those cold charts is all part of the fun, for me anyway but thank god for the ignore list on here hat's all I can say & I'm certainly making use of it lol