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Model output discussion - late November

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^^

Nice post, it is worth noting by mid Dec the sun is pretty much at its weakest.

Obviously there are many factors at play inc uppers but the very weak sun is a big positive, any snow cover and clear skies will see temps absolutely plummet in mid Dec.

Back to watching the 144-192 timeframe from behind the sofa then..

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

^^

Nice post, it is worth noting by mid Dec the sun is pretty much at its weakest.

Obviously there are many factors at play inc uppers but the very weak sun is a big positive, any snow cover and clear skies will see temps absolutely plummet in mid Dec.

Back to watching the 144-192 timeframe from behind the sofa then..

Yes can get very cold but the seasonal lag effect means that the coldest conditions are likely and easier to be achieved in January

Anyway the Gfs seems to show *fairly* decent accumulations by day 10. 😅🤔

06_255_uksnowdepth.thumb.png.0f56d8da368f103373bc9607840bba09.png

Do not take this at all seriously especially at day 10 It over does snow depths a great deal and presumably it assumes every flake settles and everything would be on the snow side of marginal for most of the time which Woudn't likely be the case well to the Gfs extent anyway. 

The low for around day 10 has shown a couple of times on the Gfs and Ecm. Tbh that's what's mostly contributed to those snow depths shown for southern England from the Gfs. But its a ways out so detail will definitely change by then. 

GFS.. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_252.thumb.jpg.8e92f87d01168cd09abd4b06676c2172.jpg

Ecmwf.. 

708944167_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_240(2).thumb.jpg.3509733f8ef53beee47bb03921e13d0f.jpg

Edited by jordan smith

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Thanks goodness we’re not getting carried away with wintry detail from op runs more than a week away ........

 

It's loony chart season.😜

They're out there so it's fair game.

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Interesting dates I wonder what impact snow would have on the General Election. 
 

GFS always seems to over do them, but it’s still a possibility.

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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Thanks goodness we’re not getting carried away with wintry detail from op runs more than a week away ........

 

You did'nt know the thread is full of snow zealots/ fanatics?

🙂

Edited by northwestsnow

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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Thanks goodness we’re not getting carried away with wintry detail from op runs more than a week away ........

 

Do i detect a hint of sarcasm there? Rhetorical question i know.

EDIT : in your own inimitable (better use intellectual words) style!

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Do i detect a hint of sarcasm there? Rhetorical question i know.

EDIT : in your own inimitable (better use intellectual words) style!

there's enough to get your teeth into on a macro scale imo …….some hints that a scandi height rise late week 2 might be an interesting surprise if we can keep heights anomalously low to our south rather than our southwest 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

there's enough to get your teeth into on a macro scale imo …….some hints that a scandi height rise late week 2 might be an interesting surprise if we can keep heights anomalously low to our south rather than our southwest 

Yes - only joking btw - quite agree, just nice to see the spread of possible results from the larger scale synoptics in terms of actual snowfall which as i always say is the only index that counts, assuming you are of the same persuasion in terms of weather preferences as me.

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Gfs for the next few days.. 

Very wet for Scotland on Thursday also very windy in the north too... Breezier in the south compared to recently. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_60.thumb.jpg.6b79ab21c8d7d3337bb17f74145160ba.jpg

1300652265_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_78(1).thumb.jpg.82a1741a51b1ca5f6cea8bf3a112ee0b.jpg

Windy and showery Saturday then more persistent wet weather for Sunday.. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_114.thumb.jpg.d346bfa30814b35003d0f2283bbb4117.jpg

Beyond generally remaining unsettled and quite cold with further rain. Perhaps some snow as this weather system on Tuesday pushes in but a week away so no more detail needed for now. 

1038886319_EUROPE_PRMSL_180(2).thumb.jpg.f3bbb77fca1b3fc8ebbd64025e6c78de.jpg

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Feels like the winter version of what we saw in June and July when about 10days out GFS picked out those outrageous 20C+ 850's. In an similar fashion odds on those charts (at this range) showing 20-40cm piled up over southern England coming are off are probably very low, maybe circa 5-10% down here with something further north and less intense possibly more likely. Will certainly be very interesting to see how this pans out.

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2 hours ago, Purga said:

I think a few in the south would be a tad happy if this came off. 😋

image.thumb.png.621d0de5b7d6fcc067ea190ccab30776.png

be warned though my rather limited experience would suggest as time goes on that system will drop further west and south west with every run (from 6 days out) like most channel lows

Edited by festivalking

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3 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Never mind the election, it's the Christmas parties I'm worried about!  Could it be the case that many are called off because conditions are just too.....Christmassy?

Much as I would love the models to be right, years of experience of having 10 day optimism of this kind evaporate within 24 hours keep me on the side of caution. I will  only really start to get excited once Knocker tells us it's going to happen!

So the question I have now is....how will it go wrong?  Can anyone identify that something in the models or the background signals that will change the outlook from Narnia to Nah, not again! 

Because, secretly inside all of us coldies, we know it's going to happen......don't we? 

 

 

The key thing i think to look out for is the split in jet stream around Sunday near Greenland. We need as much energy going in the southern arm as shown in the morning runs.

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5 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Never mind the election, it's the Christmas parties I'm worried about!  Could it be the case that many are called off because conditions are just too.....Christmassy?

Much as I would love the models to be right, years of experience of having 10 day optimism of this kind evaporate within 24 hours keep me on the side of caution. I will  only really start to get excited once Knocker tells us it's going to happen!

So the question I have now is....how will it go wrong?  Can anyone identify that something in the models or the background signals that will change the outlook from Narnia to Nah, not again! 

Because, secretly inside all of us coldies, we know it's going to happen......don't we? 

 

 

Have my christmas works do on 13th. Typical.

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

^^

Nice post, it is worth noting by mid Dec the sun is pretty much at its weakest.

Obviously there are many factors at play inc uppers but the very weak sun is a big positive, any snow cover and clear skies will see temps absolutely plummet in mid Dec.

Back to watching the 144-192 timeframe from behind the sofa then..

Thanks for this and yes - in response to a post you sent out this morning, we really need these charts to still be here by I think Friday - 

That is around 5 days prior. 

When it's this far out it still has chance for change and disappear to something non existent but once it gets to sort of 5 days out its close enough for any event to appear in much more shorter range forecasts anyway e.g. the Met Office and that's when you start getting media interest..

Hence why we really need a proper good upgrade from the UKMO at +144 for the 12zs otherwise I'll still be a tad unconvinced.

image.thumb.png.aa84dadeed13855dfb276a3375816786.png

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26 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just got to post this one more time before the 12s.

A truly remarkable chart with the jet consistently so far south of the UK.

2B421F09-E7CD-4B0F-BC9C-43E345E0050A.thumb.jpeg.a2cd55f20a50d8dac058b995f3fd698e.jpeg

Hello Steve, over the years I've picked up the Jet being south of the UK as something good for us coldies just interested to understand why " this south of UK jet " event if forecasted correctly appears to have introduced these synoptics and what might be described as a heightened interest – I guess what I’m saying is what is so potentially special about this south of the UK Jet event…

 

Cheers

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Locking this one now, new model thread here:

And new models, teleconnections and nowcasting thread here:

 

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