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Model output discussion - late November


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
    7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    With 850s at -24 widely one has to ask where this very warm anomaly over vast swathes of Russia comes from?

     

    BFTP 

    There are some wildly different temp anomalies across the Northern hemisphere,  very dubious why this is. Check out the snow and ice thread. MIA is also experiencing strange readings.  Very suspicious ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: I like Spring. Because some Springs you can sunbathe. Some you can sledge.
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l

    GFS a little closer to the ECM by +174, with HP ridge fond enough to bring colder air in but it lasts probably a blink of an eye with the uppers struggling to stay cold for longer than 24 hours

    image.thumb.png.74e4a8123b08f09bd91a0af51b0f587e.png

    image.thumb.png.8568bc303f10d1dd358a44a575aa1cc1.png

    image.thumb.png.c487842d3d063afea8c0d4486c96364c.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Here comes the trough disruption

    image.thumb.png.ecfee1a164533e20a886e60191e5bbdc.png

     

    Nothing like to throw the models and this forum into choas due to a little trough disruption!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Finally the day 8 snow event I mentioned earlier now appearing in the GFS which wasnt there on the 12z

    94A12BC0-FBE3-41E7-8A3C-4868C6C0021D.thumb.png.79b843f0c6f89cf4bd0be9f7c0639d06.png574B1DFF-FD29-49C5-A54D-6C0AEAAE0407.thumb.png.05ed891f71420d86f3027b761eb51983.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
    1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

    Here comes the trough disruption

    image.thumb.png.ecfee1a164533e20a886e60191e5bbdc.png

     

    Nothing like to throw the models and this forum into choas due to a little trough disruption!

    For all the talk of 'zonal' it's the same old story of the last few months as the time ticks down to t+0 little wedges of heights appearing and bowling ball lows a lot less round than we've become accustomed too? 

    How long can it last? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Looking yet again, a great run.  Consistency now of disruptive weather come second week to mid Dec.....and its looking more cold than mild to me....

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Pub run also goes for the biblical storm scenario at T264:

    image.thumb.jpg.d0edc74dc515efe345e47a01435760f9.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7ebb9878645851f3e7eaea48eacaf148.jpg

    ...air cold enough for some surprises there too, as we watch the election results come in on the television. 

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Pub run also goes for the biblical storm scenario at T264:

    image.thumb.jpg.438d27bf84c13b1e4605ab46bcd8a936.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7ebb9878645851f3e7eaea48eacaf148.jpg

    ...air cold enough for some surprises there too, as we watch the election results come in on the television. 

    That's the 12z... 

     

    gfsnh-0-276.thumb.png.9355bc643fdf343dffca34b7b4544d3a.png

     

     

    Edited by ALL ABOARD
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    3 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

    That's the 12z... 

     

    gfsnh-0-276.thumb.png.9355bc643fdf343dffca34b7b4544d3a.png

     

     

    Yep, thanks, I've just fixed!

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Distinct flavour of Deja Vu here from the GFS - almost exactly the same cycle of bias leading up to this current cold spell.

    Its great you can just pick apart all the failings run to run 

    So last 4 runs of GFS from 210 > 204 > 198 > 192 shows how gradually the model resolves the jet energy better with each run ( its not always that clear cut over each run with a more staggered transformation but these 4 stills tell the story spanning 00z > 18z )

    B5EC05E8-8931-4A3D-8C49-C7959A7324FC.thumb.jpeg.c69ba0dd4b63fe3f417a6c6d91f04914.jpeg

    401BF746-B9B4-4885-9E73-33515213E0AA.thumb.jpeg.402bfdacdd0eb55b3bbcdc223f8eb2d8.jpeg

    4F70B370-263C-4F24-AB6E-F28617C0C8B9.thumb.jpeg.7cd5c574d25ca2b6a897e26c30c39eb8.jpeg

    1F03EFF9-D447-4FB1-9624-ED9AA644AC18.thumb.jpeg.aa511b9b41b1486601f06527b61017a7.jpeg

     

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    And then we get to this, which is starting to look very interesting, pub run T300:

    image.thumb.jpg.477e1278d73c7f0ab5afe4fb918f0bc7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.b828dfd70a98bf602080354599bca808.jpg

    If we get anywhere close to this in the 7 day window, this place will be in meltdown...

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    And then we get to this, which is starting to look very interesting, pub run T300:

    image.thumb.jpg.477e1278d73c7f0ab5afe4fb918f0bc7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.b828dfd70a98bf602080354599bca808.jpg

    If we get anywhere close to this in the 7 day window, this place will be in meltdown...

    Easterly zonally in full flow 324hr.?

    gfsnh-0-324.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
    8 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Easterly zonally in full flow 324hr.?

    gfsnh-0-324.png

    Ha ha Yep zonal cold with -10 850s ?

    6A5AEBF5-002F-47CB-9011-3F7317057336.png

    AA79E2AD-81FB-40FE-A130-6EE7C2436E3F.png

    Edited by ICE COLD
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    Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

    @Steve Murr

     

    While your thoughts on gfs are very clear Steve it's worth keeping in mind the other models also have their flaws. For Example ECM almost always over amplifies beyond 192 hours. How many times has the ECM shown a full blown Greeny high at 240hours only for it to be blown away in closer timeframes. As for the ukmo it's 144 chart was always known to be a bit fickle. Anyways back to the charts this evening and baby steps starting to show up for a colder outlook in a weeks time or so..

    Edited by January Snowstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

    @Steve Murr

     

    While your thoughts on gfs are very clear Steve it's worth keeping in mind the other models also have their flaws. For Example ECM almost always over amplifies beyond 192 hours. How many times has the ECM shown a full blown Greeny high at 240hours only for it to be blown away in closer timeframes. As for the ukmo it's 144 chart was always known to be a bit fickle. Anyways back to the charts this evening and baby steps starting to show up for a colder outlook in a weeks time or so..

    Yes of course mate however the logical point of view needs to be with the 'most' likely outcome.

    Last review ( on the run in to this cold spell ) the swing to the Euro blend was about 80-85% & thus far the ECM hasnt edged back at all today but the GFS has trended every run so we are still at around 100% Swing.....

    Lets see where the overnights go.....

    What it does mean is the ENS should be dipping away again post day 6 ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: I like Spring. Because some Springs you can sunbathe. Some you can sledge.
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l

    Uppers very up and down in the next 5 days or so 

    Thereafter the GEFS does look a tad colder than average without question - but I'd have liked a few more members to flirt with the -5 uppers

    image.thumb.png.f0fae711433132c6dafdfc42533c1b0f.png

    Still - the mean does look acceptable in the long run with any signs of that horrid euroslug looking quite far south

    image.thumb.png.8631f18ec4d2e634a625077cce14d91c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl

    Shades of December 2012 with the polar maritime potential, let's hope it comes off.

    Edited by Bruegelian
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
    1 minute ago, Bruegelian said:

    Shades of December 2012 with the polar maritime potential.

    Yeah i'd semi agree with that too. Difference was December 2012 started off a lot more promising. I was thinking Dec 2014/Dec 2017 as being more similar personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
    4 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

    Yeah i'd semi agree with that too. Difference was December 2012 started off a lot more promising. I was thinking Dec 2014/Dec 2017 as being more similar personally

    On second thoughts I would say, that is a more accurate assessment.   ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
    54 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    If we get anywhere close to this in the 7 day window, this place will be in meltdown

    I think this place was already in meltdown mode just 24hours ago. :pardon:

    Good agreement between the Gfs, Gem and Ecmwf on low pressure moving back into the north of the UK on Thursday bringing wet and very windy weather to Scotland at first then through Friday and Saturday this spreads slowly south and east with a longer spell of rain for England and Wales.

    GFS.. ?

    Thursday.. 

    EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_90.thumb.jpg.36535c6faeccc5f74f9b6b41e0425b2a.jpg

    EUROPE_PRMSL_90.thumb.jpg.9b17802c25776bdee59c7327b85e506f.jpg

    Gem.. ?

    287843454_EUROPE_PRMSL_90(1).thumb.jpg.7d1e5df8e1e6f4c29c8c53a56d734181.jpg

    135189742_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_90(1).thumb.jpg.29a77e5a6cd793f9059db20c3a1abdda.jpg

    Ecmwf.. ?

    EUROPE_PRMSL_96.thumb.jpg.485816bdcbb61daeed6360ef6fe54ab4.jpg

    GFS Wind gust chart for Thursday.. ?

    18_90_windvector_gust.thumb.png.df8130c6825fdb6fea9f403a42c2b993.png

    18_93_windvector_gust.thumb.png.cbd1ab0dac8cfa5d6fc7a015a7bc3ed0.png

    The weekend still looking very unsettled with the possibility of a deep low pressure system which was shown yesterday to still push southeast through or close to the UK into the north sea around the 8th or 9th with very windy weather and bands of rain sweeping through.. 

    Gfs.. ?

    EUROPE_PRMSL_156.thumb.jpg.8eba16a543878d9e69afa1bf21c3b10b.jpg

    864141060_EUROPE_PRMSL_168(2).thumb.jpg.7dca9ea2e6165e2665e65d01a953d9fc.jpg

    2132554199_EUROPE_PRMSL_174(1).thumb.jpg.0da65d2afa2c8a6a5d9c2eb568c24fb0.jpg

    Gem.. ?

    353027034_EUROPE_PRMSL_186(2).thumb.jpg.b892502835689143ba8ed81fc16ca57f.jpg

    It isn't likely to be particularly mild either and indeed the ECM has more in the way of wintriness to the showers come the weekend on a brisk northwesterly flow. Into next week most models keep things unsettled and rather cold upto atleast days 9/10.. 

    GFS.. 

    32823593_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(1).thumb.jpg.9238a1559a7408336e99d0d2e0c24eb0.jpg

    Wet and very windy but a mild south-westerly for a time. 

    Gem.. 

    1245321596_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(2).thumb.jpg.fe226d011602560a49b8f45cb1cc60c4.jpg

    Unsettled but rather cold with a long fetch northwesterly wind. 

    Putting the Ecmwf Gem and Gfs output together it paints an unsettled picture with spells of rain and potentially stormy weather if any lows form in the flow early next week.. 

    59185608_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(3).thumb.jpg.96f27ac36c6dfb97c47f7f8090395c96.jpg

    Another look at the jet stream forecast from the gfs for early and mid next week.. 

    1196633456_EUROPE_JETSTREAM_204(1).thumb.jpg.5532176ecd352b70028ede1738438cc1.jpg

    742279708_EUROPE_JETSTREAM_156(1).thumb.jpg.a5c71386f0d17e37ea2794f49d71b35c.jpg

    A strong jet stream shown with the potential for a few deep lows moving close to or over the UK bringing perhaps a stormier period after the weekend, but still a ways out and will be keeping a close eye on this in the coming days. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 hour ago, Bruegelian said:

    Shades of December 2012 with the polar maritime potential, let's hope it comes off.

    Dec 2011 was better here - 2012 gave me 1 inch of ice around the time 'That ECM' came out but nothing else - Dec 2011 a few minor snow events totalling about 2-3 inches of snow altogether.

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