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Model output discussion - late November

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31 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

And the formats. Are getting fluid...in wanting of gain...

As previously suggested!!

@cold..

@intresting

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_5.png

temp4 (12).png

I love your posts @tight isobar, so please don’t stop! Your not by chance posting in Polish and using Google translate are you?  Sorry mods. Back to the output! 

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Yeah I'd give it a few more days at least. I'd be surprised if this season ends up a dud. My closet worst year to this would be 2014 was zzonal but the North done good. Awful down here on the sunny Costa del south coast.  But the models really do underestimate the blocks and wave breaking into the strat. But it's pretty clear to see that the jet stream is wanting a holiday south. But definitely the gefs has been very keen on siberian side mother vortex. But residual vortex segments can also create chaos with in the models. But I've been watching and expecting a more Eastern side dominated polar vortex with a split and warming later on into January. But the jigsaw is big and things are at the moment moving towards a colder trend. But also seen eye candy epically fail. So few more days and we could be closer to a real blast of cold or a tropical bqq winter. But the azores heights is not its usual self. Neither is the jet stream. If anything the models seem extremely keep on cold to our east only a matter of time. 

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ECM ensembles look broken to me.

15C in a Dec Northerly? I don't  think so.

ECH1-240.GIF?29-0

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM ensembles look broken to me.

15C in a Dec Northerly? I don't  think so.

 

Perhaps it's predicting northerly temperatures in December 2119 as Global Warming really lets rip?!

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Hit at 240 on ECM doesn't look outrageous. The West Coast Rider looks to build a classic, Strong NorEaster. Danger shout Martha's Vineyard. Whipped by the wind by Tuesday. Beyond 10 days UK freeze.  Cross polar flow. We get lucky early. I already got snow at 58m.

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59 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Tonight's 18z spins up this.

But before this at T+240 hrs or 10 days

We may have to encounter a  cool westerly air flow  .

Maybe we could  have a fair bit of cold snowy weather 

Or maybe a westerly flow for a bit longer 

I'd put this months wage on a cold snowy outlook. 

Massive model and data watching coming up

19120918_2918.gif

Wasn't it just under a week ago there was some brief agreement between models for the possibility of snow for this coming week? At about +10 days? 

It seemed then as it does now that a trend towards cold, possibly very cold and wintry is forming, but what happened to the forecast for a mild November and start to December?

I've just driven from London to Oxfordshire and there's quite a frost already. My somewhat questionable app is telling me it's currently - 3°c outside. I'm about 10 miles from RAF Benson, and when it's cold it tends to get very cold out here, with freezing fog. Looking forward to waking up to white fields. 

Edited by Griff

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52 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM ensembles look broken to me.

15C in a Dec Northerly? I don't  think so.

ECH1-240.GIF?29-0

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

This is the 2 metre temps for the 240 hour chart.

ECMWF_222_GB_T2M_fr-FR_fr.png

 

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2 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

This is the 2 metre temps for the 240 hour chart.

ECMWF_222_GB_T2M_fr-FR_fr.png

 

To get 15c in December would require a very mild SW'ly flow. Looks like something has gone wrong somewhere with the data. 

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7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

To get 15c in December would require a very mild SW'ly flow. Looks like something has gone wrong somewhere with the data. 

You would think so but the previous day had mild SW winds, probably the northerly still to clear those out in far south east. You can animate the charts on the link.

ECMWF_006_EU_V10_fr-FR_fr.png
WWW.TAMETEO.COM

Modèles France - ECMWF Europe - Modèle de prévision numérique du temps du Centre européen pour les prévisions météorologiques à moyen terme. Il...

 

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Looking at the hi-res ECM for the British Isles, the max temp I can find at that time frame is around 11°C.

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1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

To get 15c in December would require a very mild SW'ly flow. Looks like something has gone wrong somewhere with the data. 

It's the start of the Bartlett. What's the problem?

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Been a keen reader here lurking for many years & this year looks as good as any to finally join in so please keep up the good work. I’m very much a novice... am gradually learning as I go so I’ll just sit here and try and work out what the hell is going on.

I am a coldie though. Loving these day 10s atm.. 🏂

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1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

To get 15c in December would require a very mild SW'ly flow. Looks like something has gone wrong somewhere with the data. 

Yes, at 6pm too, 2-3 hours after peak temp. Something is screwed up. Any Weatherbell subscribers got more info or charts?

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26 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Yes, at 6pm too, 2-3 hours after peak temp. Something is screwed up. Any Weatherbell subscribers got more info or charts?

There is no 15C and it is warmest in morning 13C in places turning colder everywhere through the day the 216 > 240 does look bizarre on ECM too fast. 
CBE2803F-F543-4E2F-BA4C-BCD392369FED.thumb.png.7f065dbcf78a2851f5aeb930fabc88d0.pngE722EA5A-49AE-4D55-AA45-EB7FC9DAA15D.thumb.png.db17b6d4dbc1fb8050c14ec91f8fcb56.png

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7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Sensational chart-

image.thumb.png.1942489e09ec63f60c1f732d70038fd9.png

Shame it's 10 days away 😞 Deep/prolonged cold & snow possible from there...

The theme continues.  

ABEA1CAB-3373-4497-825C-9FC65C463251.jpeg

051D061D-C736-4A6F-BEFF-79F48A903D99.jpeg

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Seems like some consistency a week away, heading in the right direction...

iconnh-0-180.png

gfsnh-0-180.png

Edited by Griff

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EC looks a bit more complicated this morning...

Still looks OK by day 10 , the trend still looks good.

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The usual corrections by ECM this morning, toning down the height rises. Of course, this means phasing, wedges and wave flow changes. D10 from last night and this morning:

2055567519_ECH1-240(19).thumb.gif.b371aba45420a53ce005dd43e9a87260.gif672442867_ECH1-240(20).thumb.gif.8fab7d4451e3cff54a6becfc9c8c6df9.gif

I suspect that is why the ensembles were less promising than the op.

Thankfully the overall signal of a euro trough with the UK within, with SE diving lows remain. We just need a bit sharper ridges to pump some warmer air to higher-lats to get those wedges in the flow. No doubt many subtle changes to the main design as we head through the next few days, hopefully some more productive for even more cold.

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Today is the most interesting of the next 10 days freezing fog and an easterly, after that back to default mode.

bracka.gif

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29 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Today is the most interesting of the next 10 days freezing fog and an easterly, after that back to default mode.

bracka.gif

Cold and dry, hardly default mode. 

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Cold weather finally arrived here in Slovakia,barely above freezing with clear skies under northerly winds,overnight EPS have cooled against 12Z,mean now down to almost -5 T850 for middle of December here,suggests no Euro high to me 🙂

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