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Paul

Model output discussion - late November

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I do hope the ecm and the GFS chart come to fruition I don’t really get excited that far out how ever I am more in courage with the model runs today after looking also at the update from Exeter for mid to late December though the confidence is low. ☺️

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ECM makes a radical jump from the scenario at 192 to 240. what you would say is that there is some serious phasing going on when this ridge develops..

 

ECH1-192.png

ECH1-240.png

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4 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

ECM makes a radical jump from the scenario at 192 to 240. what you would say is that there is some serious phasing going on when this ridge develops..

 

ECH1-192.png

ECH1-240.png

Decent heights in the arctic can aid rapid developments but, agree, probably modelled a little too quickly by the ECM tonight. But the trends are clear. Things may flip back but, for now, it looks like from about the 8th Dec it will become unsettled and quite cold with snow chances, especially in the NW half of the UK

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1 minute ago, LRD said:

Decent heights in the arctic can aid rapid developments but, agree, probably modelled a little too quickly by the ECM tonight. But the trends are clear. Things may flip back but, for now, it looks like from about the 8th Dec it will become unsettled and quite cold with snow chances, especially in the NW half of the UK

If the trend is to, as has been for a wee while, get the bulk of the vortex over the Siberian side then there is some prospects down the line. 

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EC day 10 is superb...

Still, its day 10 and there will be a lot of twists and turns before we get to that date, i do like the persistence of the Blocking high over the Arctic- i'm 60-40 on a cold shot,of some sort.

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37 minutes ago, LRD said:

Too much pressure on the mid Atlantic ridge at 240h on the ECM 12z:

image.thumb.png.86d45b8742d556a72a2100e4e9e20b9f.png

Immaterial worrying about it at this stage though as it likely won't look precisely like that. The Alaskan and Atlantic ridge are pretty close to linking up (and that would probably mean locked in cold) but it won't happen with that low pressure just to the west of Greenland about to steamroll the pattern

Given the unusual similarity between ECM and GFS ar t240 the GFS beyond t240 is more interesting than normal, and that low would head southeast. 

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1 minute ago, heath said:

Given the unusual similarity between ECM and GFS ar t240 the GFS beyond t240 is more interesting than normal, and that low would head southeast. 

Yes, agreed, and coupled with the Met Office updates there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic

I'm not so sure about that low going SE though. I think it would head east, temporarily flattening things. But, even behind that there would be more cold chances. As I say, little point debating a 240hr chart that much as it won't look like that. I'm intrigued and encouraged by the continued trend for arctic heights and, like Stuie W says, the displacement of the vortex over Siberia

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A key factor in where low pressure systems settle themselves is as always the jetstream, and the profiles for the longer term are after a slight west-east position, a NW-SE tracking one on a southerly path, this does increase the chance of trough disruption in the longer term, slider low territory...

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4 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yes, agreed, and coupled with the Met Office updates there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic

I'm not so sure about that low going SE though. I think it would head east, temporarily flattening things. But, even behind that there would be more cold chances. As I say, little point debating a 240hr chart that much as it won't look like that. I'm intrigued and encouraged by the continued trend for arctic heights and, like Stuie W says, the displacement of the vortex over Siberia

ECE1-240.thumb.gif.6d2886fe601d39396e7b3d170b3df7ed.gif

This is a better chart to show how it would slide SE. It would undercut the pseudo-GH, filling the euro trough and easing the Azores High west to hopefully allow the ridge to build up when the two HP cells in the Atlantic conjoin.

At the moment the respective forces suggest, for once, that the Azores High will be the slave to the sliding chunks ejected from the NW, thus enabling a euro trough block. With the right wedges we could then tap into the Arctic cold. All within the bounds of the mechanics of the current NH profile, assuming the models are right with the signal(s).

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Although many places are likely to be dry tomorrow, for central and particularly southern England fog patches that may form overnight tonight may linger into the morning in a few spots before lifting to low cloud with a few sunny spells at times, the afternoon is likely to be cloudy to the south and southwest of the midlands ahead of the low to the southwest of the UK bringing some heavy rain into the far southwest for most of the day before easing southeastward into the English channel. For Scotland parts of the midlands, North wales, northern Ireland and northern England sunny with variable cloud and feeling cold with temperatures below freezing all day perhaps for parts of Scotland. Showers effect the coast and will be wintry in places. A widespread frost quickly develops tomorrow evening / night for Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland the midlands, parts of East anglia and Wales too but quite cloudy conditions likely for the south and southwest for a time may hold frost at bay until quite late in the night there is also a risk of light showery rain drifting into Eastern and central parts at times in thin bands through the night tomorrow night and into Sunday morning and with temperatures around 1-4c they could be wintry for a time but other than that most other places dry. 

Putting the Ecmwf Gem and Gfs together there's good agreement of west or northwesterly winds becoming a frequent theme later next week perhaps trying to turn to the north by day 10 also turning rather unsettled again.. But this is a ways off yet. Anyway Days 7-10 below.. 👇

EUROPE_PRMSL_168.thumb.jpg.b36e540e65fcf44e58ff1808569a405d.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_192.thumb.jpg.d6811bfdf48d9d0a6b4005b3d7862ada.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_216.thumb.jpg.930cc20bf7f1fe8594cb2fa8a7d92259.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_240.thumb.jpg.c2fffcd432e8e3c19dd7afd3b89312d4.jpg

Edited by jordan smith
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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, surely after this chart (ECM T240) there's not much resistance for the lot to drop down from the NNE? 

image.thumb.jpg.e2d89d935dd3e86045a90cec199acaee.jpg

ECM mean same time:

image.thumb.jpg.2abd8e99d09752613edd9aa96957fc1b.jpg

Looks supportive of the op to me, quite a few runs going for it in the mix there.

Right, I'm trying hard to not get too wrapped up in things but that ECM mean is incredible. An arctic high modelled like that in an ensemble mean is utterly superb

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13 minutes ago, IDO said:

ECE1-240.thumb.gif.6d2886fe601d39396e7b3d170b3df7ed.gif

This is a better chart to show how it would slide SE. It would undercut the pseudo-GH, filling the euro trough and easing the Azores High west to hopefully allow the ridge to build up when the two HP cells in the Atlantic conjoin.

At the moment the respective forces suggest, for once, that the Azores High will be the slave to the sliding chunks ejected from the NW, thus enabling a euro trough block. With the right wedges we could then tap into the Arctic cold. All within the bounds of the mechanics of the current NH profile, assuming the models are right with the signal(s).

That view looks better than on Wetter

Edited by LRD

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9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, surely after this chart (ECM T240) there's not much resistance for the lot to drop down from the NNE? 

image.thumb.jpg.e2d89d935dd3e86045a90cec199acaee.jpg

ECM mean same time:

image.thumb.jpg.2abd8e99d09752613edd9aa96957fc1b.jpg

Looks supportive of the op to me, quite a few runs going for it in the mix there.

The only issue Mike is the reluctance of the Atlantic ridge, we need that. there isn`t a zonal onslaught in sight but we could end up in just a dry cold day scenario. Certainly not against that whilst we would await further developments.

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It's Friday, and things are starting to look interesting.  First to recap the GFS, GEM and ECM at T240 as basis for some thoughts:

 

T

1

image.thumb.jpg.d04a7146eec882504b7b0868e269da44.jpg

Think i would like that cold bit in the Atlantic to be a bit further South and extend further West, and the cold in the NE pacific to be more extensive and further North and West.

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Think i would like that cold bit in the Atlantic to be a bit further South and extend further West, and the cold in the NE pacific to be more extensive and further North and West.

Maybe, certainly agree re the NE pacific, but we can't be choosers, we've got an Ace on solar minimum, we just need reasonably high cards on the other main factors and we should have a hand that wins the game.  The 2 on the seasonal models is a concern, but they could be wrong...and I am increasingly thinking they are wrong.

Edited by Mike Poole
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t850Kent.thumb.png.e2e48acda687ca5fb212085f8f03b038.png

Good cluster on the 9th.uksnowrisk-1.thumb.png.ecdd776994beb2deb7144b81e4a5e52a.png

Looking like it could be a special start to winter with gorgeous charts churning out. So cold out now. Hoping it's a sign of things to come. Solar minimum may have something to do with the below average temperatures and continuing cold pattern?

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Was hoping to see something regarding the ext eps this evening-

😞

I'm a tad disappointed with the debilt ens 

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3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I'm a tad disappointed with the debilt ens 

Likely i am then...

 

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