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Model output discussion - late November

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11 minutes ago, knocker said:

Yes I did wonder about that myself and looking at the EPS is not a great help but I'm inclined to the Canadian lobe here . I also noted the warming at 50mb in this area 😉

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-6022400.thumb.png.863dcac4b8744f6d76989601cfb01bac.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t50_anom-5676800.thumb.png.6025f318f0200659c53b00c45ff9e27d.png

 

 

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Our old foe the canadian segment,while not as pronounced as the other 2 segments,still doing all the damage for those of a cold persuasion and preventing retrogression of the pattern.

Unless i am reading the chart incorrectly?

the eps has a discreet Canadian segment which is different to gefs and I suspect would be more sustained in situ

of course knocker posts a six day mean ......I wonder what the extended eps does with that arctic weak highi anomoly late on ........

 

Edited by bluearmy
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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

the eps has a discreet Canadian segment which is different to gefs and I suspect would be more sustained in situ

of course knocker posts a six day mean ......I wonder what the extended eps does with that arctic weak highi anomoly late on ........

 

The mean at day 10 looks similar to last nights with perhaps a little more emphasis on a PM airflow down the line..

image.thumb.png.7c38c10b6014f6526cecd13b2977b7ce.png

Still a large neg pressure anomaly to the NW which is always the thorn in coldies side..

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18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

the eps has a discreet Canadian segment which is different to gefs and I suspect would be more sustained in situ

of course knocker posts a six day mean ......I wonder what the extended eps does with that arctic weak highi anomoly late on ........

 

Note the source of the air over the UK when thinking of temps

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-6108800.thumb.png.f52568e4bf77ff4fcf1153641c113aa9.png

Edited by knocker
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Just now, knocker said:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-6108800.thumb.png.f52568e4bf77ff4fcf1153641c113aa9.png

I'm terrible at judging those charts but that looks much more appealing for coldies..

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm terrible at judging those charts but that looks much more appealing for coldies..

I don't know that it's appealing to anyone but with ref. to that I have just edited that post

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

I don't know that it's appealing to anyone but with ref. to that I have just edited that post

Yes, i got you.

We do look to have a lost any positive heights across Europe so hence my thoughts we may see some PM incursions down the line..

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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The mean at day 10 looks similar to last nights with perhaps a little more emphasis on a PM airflow down the line..

image.thumb.png.7c38c10b6014f6526cecd13b2977b7ce.png

Still a large neg pressure anomaly to the NW which is always the thorn in coldies side..

And even when we don't we still can't get the deep cold here.

Looking at that first chart you would say game on pv about to pay a visit with its deep cold but na second chart the pv just loops back over to Canada all because of that high and it's negative forcing in my eyes that high just becomes a hindrance for a early shoot and something decent cold/snow wise.

UN24-21.gif

20191127_082907.jpg

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Exeter have actually moved the front further south on the latest update

PPVL89.thumb.gif.3c2cb9fafd10abb0d1a19f3d5c704e72.gif

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9 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This isn't great if i am absolutely bluntly honest.

image.thumb.png.f4481d7911fdaac646b255426f9063e1.pngimage.thumb.png.4b6180b55c79f9a67df7921545e948ef.png

 

If ever you need to draw a straight line and you haven't a rule handy, in this day and age you can just use the Atlantic Jet.

It’s good to see the PV ramp up a notch as we will see some much missed gales hopefully,,,,it’s not Autumn without some wind storms.

or December for that matter,,,it’ll be good to see a change in pattern 

Edited by Penicuikblizzard
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Going by the GEFS 00Z ensembles, a 5-/6-day cold spell is now almost a dead cert. More importantly, perhaps, is the suggestion that the horrendous rainfall, to which we've become accustomed, is -- at long last -- on the way oot!:clapping:

prcpLeicestershire.png   t2mLeicestershire.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Firming up on some of the finer details for the upcoming cooler spell - starting with some T2 temps - looking chilly

Sunday midday - temperatures widely around the mid single figures or colder for most

image.thumb.png.f5103ef39f8304746ca4c8bc7f1f2cca.png

Sunday dawn temperatures around freezing or below for the majority of the UK

image.thumb.png.900fe85b727b42e2a1464678b1e7d02d.png

Actually wouldn't be surprised if these trend a tad lower nearer the time - certainly a frost for most under clear skies

ECM thereafter shows the HP toppling in

 image.thumb.png.9d112cc091e2df9759c9170bdf13ce48.png

Eventually leading to more zonal westerly winds

However by the very end of the run does show a hint of ridging to the W/NW trying to take place with a more NW'ly flow

image.thumb.png.3d16a0c9773293afc4d476164ddbb4eb.png

 

GEFS ensembles overnight 

image.thumb.png.cdd00abd9f3b9574137009304678ed37.png

A nice little chunk do dip cooler beyond D10 and show this NW'ly solution - but no members show anything more than just standard NW'ly incursions 

This means to me there's not a lot in the way of overly mild coming up in the next 2 weeks - nor nothing overly cold.. in a bit of no mans land really, not often I see this at this time of year

 

 

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Fi on GFS 6z gives eastern Europe a real taste of winter.to the north west a stubborn area of the PV lingers.drier tho so something to clutch at .on my 1-10 rankster scale I'd give today's output so far a 7😏

Edited by swfc
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If the cold air of the weekend gets trapped over the UK, next week could be quite frosty and possibly foggy, depending on cloud cover:

image.thumb.png.8b576c31aba03768cb8579aab18034bc.png

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But, later on, pretty uninspiring

 

 

image.png

Edited by LRD
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So, to sum up the 06z GFS run

Short term - cold-ish

Mid-term - possibly calm and frosty/foggy

Long-term -  the less said the better

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1 minute ago, LRD said:

So, to sum up the 06z GFS run

Short term - cold-ish

Mid-term - possibly calm and frosty/foggy

Long-term -  the less said the better

Unless you have altitude and live in the north- should we begin a Net Weather whip round and all head off to the Scottish highlands 😄

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Maybe Blue can confirm but i believe EC ens are trending to a short lived northerly 2nd week of Dec ..

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Control looks a bit more lively and, potentially, interesting

image.thumb.png.3734dec8245058a20714f8781a46f3eb.png

image.thumb.png.4732a2c9fa50da3342d9fb80a5d1ce2b.png

But, blimey, those who want cold - such as me - are feeding off thin gruel today

Edited by LRD
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1 minute ago, LRD said:

Control looks a bit more lively and, potentially, interesting

image.thumb.png.3734dec8245058a20714f8781a46f3eb.png

But, blimey, those who want cold - such as me - are feeding off thin gruel today

I agree- looking at the broader scale we have a 4 or 5 day spell of seasonal weather incoming, thereafter a breakdown of the high looks likely but will we see a traditional flat zonal pattern setting up or something with a more polar maritime influence.

As i posted above, EC ens have a cold cluster promoting a northerly towards the 9/10th of Dec, nothing guaranteed of course but maybe something to keep an eye on..

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image.thumb.png.8465a589737403fc75d5a807707e9039.png

GFS control backs up the previous post about EC ens with a northerly 2nd week of Dec 🙂

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I agree- looking at the broader scale we have a 4 or 5 day spell of seasonal weather incoming, thereafter a breakdown of the high looks likely but will we see a traditional flat zonal pattern setting up or something with a more polar maritime influence.

As i posted above, EC ens have a cold cluster promoting a northerly towards the 9/10th of Dec, nothing guaranteed of course but maybe something to keep an eye on..

Yes and looking through the ensembles there are a fair few polar/arctic maritime influenced runs and half a dozen members have good potential for proper height rises in the Greenland area. Not without hope but it's all miles out time-wise. If you're looking for a longer term trend, though, winds in the NW or NNW are well in the frame. 

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44 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Maybe Blue can confirm but i believe EC ens are trending to a short lived northerly 2nd week of Dec ..

The clusters say approx 50/50 but I’d say the trend is just about with the broad northerly ....or at least cool troughy .... 

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So, here we are, with the 06Z GEFS ensembles, and the colder and, thankfully, much drier outlook looks on...Though, I must admit, I'm still sceptical as to the meaningfulness of clusters. But that's only me!:oldgrin:

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Here's the snowfall probability for Saturday and Sunday. Less than 5% of snow falling from that low to the south. 👇Not to be taken too literally but gives an idea. 

snow_prob_20191127_06_078.thumb.jpg.822f89479a01c0127bf99d48a375077a.jpg

snow_prob_20191127_06_090.thumb.jpg.6ae076d1b53de1c60525a7ad215eb158.jpg

Perhaps a little snow over high ground in the southwest but this low will very likely remain to the south with only a chance of some rain grazing the far south and southwest 👍

Edited by jordan smith
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