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Model output discussion - late November

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Hmmm yes just doesn't quite cut the mustard on the GFS 18 op..

HP topples in perhaps a tad quicker compared to other runs today - 

image.thumb.png.12a7dcd5e47bbade0b64789e39698d78.png

But it'd be still cold - as indicated by the uppers, with the -5 isotherm getting down over much of the country throughout much of the period from Friday to Sunday.

image.thumb.png.a052c4fd16fc5c5d555bce915cfd8d62.png

It's not a dream run but its acceptable - more so if it turns out to be one of the 'milder' runs in the suit - (milder meaning in this particular comment, toppling the HP in too early).

 

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4 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Hmmm yes just doesn't quite cut the mustard on the GFS 18 op..

HP topples in perhaps a tad quicker compared to other runs today - 

image.thumb.png.12a7dcd5e47bbade0b64789e39698d78.png

But it'd be still cold - as indicated by the uppers, with the -5 isotherm getting down over much of the country throughout much of the period from Friday to Sunday.

image.thumb.png.a052c4fd16fc5c5d555bce915cfd8d62.png

It's not a dream run but its acceptable - more so if it turns out to be one of the 'milder' runs in the suit - (milder meaning in this particular comment, toppling the HP in too early).

 

Whatever happens it looks quite cold as we head into the first couple of days of December which will be a nice opening to meteorological winter. 🙂

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50 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Hmmm yes just doesn't quite cut the mustard on the GFS 18 op..

HP topples in perhaps a tad quicker compared to other runs today - 

image.thumb.png.12a7dcd5e47bbade0b64789e39698d78.png

But it'd be still cold - as indicated by the uppers, with the -5 isotherm getting down over much of the country throughout much of the period from Friday to Sunday.

image.thumb.png.a052c4fd16fc5c5d555bce915cfd8d62.png

It's not a dream run but its acceptable - more so if it turns out to be one of the 'milder' runs in the suit - (milder meaning in this particular comment, toppling the HP in too early).

 

Nothing to get excited about for the far south on those charts.

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Plenty to be optimistic about - and the 18z GEFS proves that too (going out until the 4th)

image.thumb.png.0a1df1cd1e0fed4681b542e10b7ad11a.png

Firming up now on a genuine cold snap from around the 28th until the 3rd (at the earliest) - a huge upgrade from just a couple of days ago when we were looking at nothing more than a 1-2 day toppler at the very most (with iffy uppers too) 

Not often do we see upgrades but we've certainly seen them in the last few days. It's still far enough away to see downgrades - let's hope this doesn't happen.

Notice how the 18z op is indeed one of the more 'quicker' ensembles to bring the HP toppling in too around the 3rd and 4th. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Don said:

Nothing to get excited about for the far south on those charts.

You on about the South of France 😂

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6 minutes ago, Don said:

Nothing to get excited about for the far south on those charts.

Apologies! I tried my best! 

I guess these setups are more favorable for the North (naturally) but even in the South Don I'm sure it'd turn very seasonably cold with frosts that's for sure. I suppose we need some absolute stonkers to get you excited!

image.thumb.png.eaaeed163c47c6bac03ffa7a0ed1b76d.png

Edited by StretfordEnd1996

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1 minute ago, A Frayed Knot said:

You on about the South of France 😂

Lol, if only! 

1 minute ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Apologies! I tried my best! 

I guess these setups are more favorable for the North (naturally) but even in the South Don I'm sure it'd turn very seasonably cold with frosts that's for sure. 

Haha, yes I'm sure it will feel more seasonable for a few days which will be nice but snow probably unlikely south of the midlands at this stage.  Overall, though, I fear it's going to be a long winter and not in the cold sense!

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Just now, Don said:

Lol, if only! 

Haha, yes I'm sure it will feel more seasonable for a few days which will be nice but snow probably unlikely south of the midlands at this stage.  Overall, though, I fear it's going to be a long winter and not in the cold sense!

To early to be worrying about that Don at this stage before Winter's begun. 

This type of cold snap I consider very rare for the time of year - in what's usually a largely zonal, mild and wet period.

The extended GEFS ensembles beyond day 10 I don't think show that as much as it did the other day. It shows a largely mixed bag with a lot of scatter.

Plenty to play for..

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25% chance of snow for London on 2nd December now on latest short GFS 18z ensembles and I notice a max of just 4c now forecast on BBC too for Dartford 

20191124_232815.jpg

Edited by Kentspur

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The 12z eps ens out now,still a good clustering out to the 3rd/4th dec to a colder solution

774912816_ensemble-tt6-london(1).thumb.gif.4ccdd659b21632bd4d11a7d9ac2fb9f7.gif

and the gefs ens is cold out to that time period with some nudging towards -10.

graphe3_1000_264_28___.thumb.png.fb916c8a341f332f0536ba7ce8dd4bcf.png

i wouldn't worry about the uncertainty after that as things can change and will.

the temps are coming down but my ramp is going up...

download.thumb.jpg.b03ec7f85a850d6e12a88c23fe840dd9.jpg

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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image.png.ce7d8f67755443d82d1f82953381c0t2mLondon.thumb.png.846396b2b6fb90e4c818448644706836.png

Looks like they will all end up near freezing to me. What a chance for a serious cold spell. It could be special☃️🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🐇

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After a ropey start, the Iconic NWP run in full swing.

image.thumb.png.42010bf38e78623f30526688db803ee4.png

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ICON still has heart ❤️

iconnh-0-156.png?25-00

And given it underdoes the 850's this would be very cold.

iconnh-1-168.png?25-00

 

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First boom of the day goes to ICON!

Very cold uppers spreading south through the weekend..

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

First boom of the day goes to ICON!

Very cold uppers spreading south through the weekend..

Still looks shortlived though unless we can shear the high towards Scandi.

The issue is the block is essentially a mid Atlantic HP- If we let the trop pattern collapse, the trop vortex will flatten the hemispheric ridging into mid latitude features and we'll end up in a situation like recent GFS runs have been hinting at in FI.

Edited by CreweCold

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Still looks shortlived though unless we can shear the high towards Scandi.

TBH Crewe, its very rare to see a 3 or 4 day cold snap/spell during Decembers nowadays so with that in mind i'm happy 🙂

still going strong at 180hours.

image.thumb.png.e97c9fc25015be1e357c2a096cca2694.png

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH Crewe, its very rare to see a 3 or 4 day cold snap/spell during Decembers nowadays so with that in mind i'm happy 🙂

still going strong at 180hours.

image.thumb.png.e97c9fc25015be1e357c2a096cca2694.png

Oh I agree- but it's what comes after this that worries me. As soon at the N Atlantic sector amplification subsides, a lot of the NWP is pointing towards a strengthening trop vortex- which is not something I want to see. I'd much MUCH prefer to see a proper GH set up and give us a bit more to play with going forward.

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Just now, CreweCold said:

Oh I agree- but it's what comes after this that worries me. As soon at the N Atlantic sector amplification subsides, a lot of the NWP is pointing towards a strengthening trop vortex- which is not something I want to see. I'd much MUCH prefer to see a proper GH set up and give us a bit more to play with going forward.

Yup, agree with everything you wrote.

Not sure how accurate the ICON precip charts are but the run looks bone dry- which also means, with any luck,given the short days, some low minima 🙂

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup, agree with everything you wrote.

Not sure how accurate the ICON precip charts are but the run looks bone dry- which also means, with any luck,given the short days, some low minima 🙂

They're OK but may not be picking up convection very well with it being fairly low res. 

That being said, the HP is too close to allow much in the way of more organised troughing from the NE, so it'd likely be a case of wintry showers towards E coast etc and dry and cold weather further W.

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UKMO better than yesterdays 00z but not up to ICON

UN144-21.GIF?25-04

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5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

UKMO better than yesterdays 00z but not up to ICON

UN144-21.GIF?25-04

Cold, but not in the same league as ICON..

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