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Model output discussion - late November

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2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

If a weather presenter says “temperatures” what do you infer? That and the fact that they list t850hpa and theta e etc as options 

GRound temperatures are different from 2M though.

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5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

If a weather presenter says “temperatures” what do you infer? That and the fact that they list t850hpa and theta e etc as options 

It must be ground temps, can’t be anything else. It’ll be chilly early Dec going off that although air temps a few degrees up  - the CET for Dec on a good start for being unlike the seasonal predictions 

Edited by Ali1977

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8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

If a weather presenter says “temperatures” what do you infer? That and the fact that they list t850hpa and theta e etc as options 

I would infer temperatures but I was replying to a question earlier that specifically asked about ground temperatures, As in  early morning minimum temperatures involve both air and ground

Edited by knocker

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4 minutes ago, knocker said:

I would infer temperatures but I was replying to a question earlier that specifically asked about ground temperatures, As in  early morning minimum temperatures involve both air and ground

Ahh sorry, my mistake. I’d take it as air temps not ground temps 

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It really is a shame that it isn't mid January

gfsnh-0-78.thumb.png.01d2dc58d583987f1ad077fb015d718a.png
This would be one of the best patterns you could have in terms of delivering widespread, significant snowfall across large parts of the UK. Sadly, the air just isn't cold enough/in the right place for us to tap into. Snow on northern hills certainly possible & it'll feel cold everywhere but I'm doubtful it'll be anymore than that, though could get more interesting if the shift southwards continues. That's quite some trough disruption out in the Atlantic! 

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ECM looks to be throwing a ridge NE on Day 10. All academic at this range but one to watch. 

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11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

When I first logged-on this morning I almost imagined I'd been asleep for 8-days' straight, and that it had already happened. Such was the state of near-euphoria!:oldgrin:

But, aye, a distinct possibility that a cold snap (or even a notable spell) is about to unfold. Let's hope so!:clapping:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

There seems to be a theme (IMHO in the couple of years I've been lurking, but I could be wrong) that emotions can run high when following each run, however the trends tend to point in a certain direction, which seems to have been the case over the last week. Fascinating to watch and some really helpful explanations along the way. Thank you all for your observations. Certainly hasn't been as mild as forecast even if this week starts a little warmer... 

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An ugly old FI from the 06z. If you like the cold

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Wetterkarten GFS Northern Hemisphere 06Z

Never ceases to amaze me how large and bloated that Azores High gets (in reality and in forecast models) these days

But, overall, not a bad morning for coldies with the ECM being a stonker

Edited by LRD

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18 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

When I first logged-on this morning I almost imagined I'd been asleep for 8-days' straight, and that it had already happened. Such was the state of near-euphoria!:oldgrin:

But, aye, a distinct possibility that a cold snap (or even a notable spell) is about to unfold. Let's hope so!:clapping:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

Yes ed a chance of  something colder for a time. Some colder air wafting in from the ene.problem is imo are we polishing a t--- here? Much better than zonal cross and a lot of great posts today but I'm slightly underwellmed if I'm honest given the excitement???🤔🤔

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5 minutes ago, Griff said:

There seems to be a theme (IMHO in the couple of years I've been lurking, but I could be wrong) that emotions can run high when following each run, however the trends tend to point in a certain direction, which seems to have been the case over the last week. Fascinating to watch and some really helpful explanations along the way. Thank you all for your observations. Certainly hasn't been as mild as forecast even if this week starts a little warmer... 

Have to say I completely agree with this, normally we are looking to the outer reaches of fi for any hope of a change whereas this year there definitely seems to be a trend to something massively different for the uk generally imo.

could this winter be one to remember for the right reasons for many including myself on here

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6 minutes ago, LRD said:

An ugly old FI from the 06z. If you like the cold

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Wetterkarten GFS Northern Hemisphere 06Z

Never ceases to amaze me how large and bloated that Azores High gets (in reality and in forecast models) these days

But, overall, not a bad morning for coldies with the ECM being a stonker

It`s the same every year, it`s using it to our advantage is the hard bit (ridge). You also have to stop it generating heights over Iberia and into Europe (Euro slug high).

All fun.

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2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes ed a chance of  something colder for a time. Some colder air wafting in from the ene.problem is imo are we polishing a t--- here? Much better than zonal cross and a lot of great posts today but I'm slightly underwellmed if I'm honest given the excitement???🤔🤔

I know what you mean. However, I think model trends have been, generally, going in the right direction if you want some cold. The Met Office see milder weather from around mid December and the models are not really contradicting that. But that's way off

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1 minute ago, LRD said:

I know what you mean. However, I think model trends have been, generally, going in the right direction if you want some cold. The Met Office see milder weather from around mid December and the models are not really contradicting that. But that's way off

Met office had been nothing but mild, so the suggestion of possible cold could potentially hint at a trend towards a colder than forecast winter (certainly if the last months was anything to go by, and yes I definitely have my own bias and clutching at straws). Way beyond my understanding but interesting developments and plenty of uncertainty in the strat models too. 

 

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The Ecm 0z ensemble mean is still trending milder longer term thanks to the azores high!!!..but of course  the majority don't want to read that!🤔😉

EDM1-240.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.2b890c1ab3bbe98fef2c20451e334626.gif

 

Edited by JON SNOW

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3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Met office had been nothing but mild, so the suggestion of possible cold could potentially hint at a trend towards a colder than forecast winter (certainly if the last months was anything to go by, and yes I definitely have my own bias and clutching at straws). Way beyond my understanding but interesting developments and plenty of uncertainty in the strat models too. 

 

Agreed. It's proved to be very interesting model watching over the last few weeks and there seems to be even greater unpredictability so far. Conflicting longer term signals and de-coupling of the strat and trop causing that in the models perhaps?

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horrid o6z with zonal dross eventuallyHopefully the zonal bias of the gfs is on show here,because it always wants to bring the Atlantic back in  as quickly as possible,whenever a decent cold spell could be on the cards.

Always way to progressive,the actual outcome will probably be much different than what the gfs is showing.

The new gfs appears no different with this built in bias still showing.

 

 

 

 

Edited by SLEETY

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The hysteria is back on again this morning I see. All week the models have been taking wild swings from cold to mild.... And today it looks like we are back into the cold zone. My god take a look at the ECM ens.... The mean as kept to a clean and strict diet, while the op hit the steroids overnight, and is now well and Truelly juiced up! I must admit though, it a sight for sore Sunday morning eyes... Onwards and upwards.... Things again looking much better than this time yesterday. 

graphe_ens3 (3).png

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6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

horrid o6z with zonal dross eventuallyHopefully the zonal bias of the gfs is on show here,because it always wants to bring the Atlantic back in  as quickly as possible,whenever a decent cold spell could be on the cards.

Always way to progressive,the actual outcome will probably be much different than what the gfs is showing

 

 

 

 

Yep. Thankfully it's in FI but this chart is a shocker

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Wetterkarten GFS Europe 06Z

 

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