Model output discussion - late November

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I’m in the camp of 70/30 in favour of cold developing and holding out for much of December.  I’m not and haven’t been concerned with any ‘mild’ scenarios as start of Dec still lies (just) in realms of FI.  I’m anticipating the solidification this week of colder outlooks as we enter Dec.  Excellent charts this morning, good steps imo in the right direction.

 

BFTP

[knocker]

Will the forces of darkness be kept at bay?

The EPS t216 -240 means

Moving on to the ext mean anomaly this morning. Little change from last evening so further waffle superfluous

 

Edited November 24, 2019 by knocker

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Will the forces of darkness be kept at bay?

The EPS t216 -240 means

Moving on to the ext mean anomaly this morning. Little change from last evening so further waffle superfluous

 

Close to the U.K. , another step like the last few and its game on maybe. Early Alps conditions will be fantastic 

[IDO]

D8 it definitely FI at the moment, the spread highlights the GEFS dysfunction with the pattern in the "driver" region:

The good news is that there has been a shift this morning towards a colder solution for D6-D10. There are very fine margins for the next cold chance but we are in the game still, so that is better than recently.

Upstream looks very complicated up to about D9, so changes either way are possible. What is clear is that the propensity for cold to move to mid-latitude is significant, so chances abound in the next 14 days for cold further south than normal:

T168: 

Compared to yesterday 0z the Russian High (ex-Euro) hangs on for another 36h this morning. This maintains the three wave NH, so the output in FI is less flat on the op. This could lead to another cold shot after D10 assuming the in upcoming ridge topples (high probability on GEFS). 

[Methuselah]

Next Sunday's hardly looking zonal!

    

Come to Daddy!

[knocker]

I appreciate this is not relevant to this thread but others may be interested in the fax updates for the midweek low

[ICE COLD]

Brilliant runs across the board this morning for cold weather nuts . @Steve Murr the legend of netweather beats the gfs again (if the runs hold lol) , good work Steve . 
 

The GEFS are trending the cold way too . ECM looking very good as well. 

[MR EXTREMES]

27 minutes ago, knocker said:

I appreciate this is not relevant to this thread but others may be interested in the fax updates for the midweek low

I'm interested as it's all weather. And some seriously wet windy weather to come. 

Beyond this cold chances are stacking up. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Icon perfectly acceptable.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended has high pressure over the UK to start December. Maybe a break from the rain for a bit.

Some chiller air moving down as we end November though how far west it goes who knows

Edited November 24, 2019 by Summer Sun

[Tim Bland]

Nice upgrades overnight. Fair play to @Steve Murr as they are at least moving towards his predictions. Even GFS has an opportunity for snow around day 9 as the Atlantic comes back in. Someone posted a cropped chart of a front over the south next weekend..which model is this from please? Re ECM ground temps weather.us has then but they are in F 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has high pressure over the UK to start December. Maybe a break from the rain for a bit.

Cold though, looks like a slack Easterly to me.

[bluearmy]

The systems headed east continue to correct south .... will the wedges do their stuff for coldies ? And the ec op offers an fi tease that once the wedges lose a little traction, we might see a cold block establishing to maintain the disruption of those systems ......

the best winters for snow in the uk are characterised by diving Atlantic lows .....the one thing that should lift coldies mood the morning is that ec op doesn’t look to sustain the Azores ridge (though the spreads look like they might) 

[SMU]

Cheers @ICE COLD As you say as long as it holds

GFS ENS watch - we are now to 150 from where we started 2 days ago & the Mean is now morphing into a different pattern....

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The systems headed east continue to correct south .... will the wedges do their stuff for coldies ? And the ec op offers an fi tease that once the wedges lose a little traction, we might see a cold block establishing to maintain the disruption of those systems ......

the best winters for snow in the uk are characterised by diving Atlantic lows .....the one thing that should lift coldies mood the morning is that ec op doesn’t look to sustain the Azores ridge (though the spreads look like they might) 

Would rather it were the other way around though.

[knocker]

deleted

Edited November 24, 2019 by knocker

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Cheers @ICE COLD As you say as long as it holds

GFS ENS watch - we are now to 150 from where we started 2 days ago & the Mean is now morphing into a different pattern....

Another step and the U.K. will be in the deep cold bracket - do you think the 06z will do that ? Or being the 06z there’s a chance it’ll back off? 

Does anyone have EC snow charts? Any chance this weekend down the east ? 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Would rather it were the other way around though.

day 10 ec charts are v difficult to extrapolate for obvious reasons ....no day 11 on offer to check out 

 

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Re ECM ground temps weather.us has then but they are in F 

From what I can make out on the chart it just says temperatures. Could you clarify that they are ground temps please.

[SMU]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Another step and the U.K. will be in the deep cold bracket - do you think the 06z will do that ? Or being the 06z there’s a chance it’ll back off? 

Does anyone have EC snow charts? Any chance this weekend down the east ? 

Humm...

Its 50/50 as its the 06z - As we see now though the important element of the ridging is at 120 on the ICON so the 120-144 window could be ok its 144-192 thats usually iffy-

Rule of thumb if it follows the Euro blend then its worth considering & in the context of current context of 'westward' corrections

However if it blows it all away East it will go in the bin .

[Stuie]

@Ali1977

Well this is the accumulation up til Dec 3rd...

 

[Tim Bland]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

From what I can make out on the chart it just says temperatures. Could you clarify that they are ground temps please.

Would be fair to assume so as they specify t850hp and DP etc in other options. 

Model charts for England (Temperature) | ECMWF/Global Euro HD (10 days)

WEATHER.US

---

ECMWF/Global Euro HD (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 11/24/2019, 04:00am of parameter "Temperature", model chart for map "England"

 

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Would be fair to assume so as they specify t850hp and DP etc in other options. 

Model charts for England (Temperature) | ECMWF/Global Euro HD (10 days)

WEATHER.US

---

ECMWF/Global Euro HD (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 11/24/2019, 04:00am of parameter "Temperature", model chart for map "England"

 

I'm not sure it would as it doesn't specify ground temps. Anyway no matter

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

I'm not sure it would as it doesn't specify ground temps. Anyway no matter

If a weather presenter says “temperatures” what do you infer? That and the fact that they list t850hpa and theta e etc as options 

[knocker]

Interesting looking at the DPT charts. The ingress of the concentrated colder air becomes established at t168, perhaps colder at t192 and bye bye Blackbird at t216