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Model output discussion - late November

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul_1978 Accomplished

Paul_1978

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Who's up for an early taste of spring with daffodils as we approach christmas?..joking aside, the longer term GEFS 6z mean is tending towards a predominantly more southwesterly direction.

13_366_850tmp.thumb.png.8367da7e410677f6bc1b0ca5833439ed.png13_366_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.8a4c86d91fb46b62f972e50bc10f2627.png21_378_850tmp.thumb.png.945ec607592a9c7a3feea44e44e4fdcb.png

17th Dec is 360 hours away. 

On the 06z op, 17th Dec was showing a WNW wind, and on the 0z preceding was a SW. And on the preceding 18z a straight southerly.
So southerly (18z), south westerly (0z), west north westerly (06z). Not looked at the GEFS mean, but there is no trend on the op, far from it.

17th Dec will be at T+348 on this run and will be completely different again. Lots to be resolved before we start concerning ourselves with 17th December.

Edited by Paul_1978
typo
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

GFS out to 192 and this could get very interesting from here!  Has it latched onto the right solution though?

image.thumb.png.3c27dfad202b5f9c08ec4bf4b99eaa06.pngimage.thumb.png.c47e4c71a7d690e64c14a8ae859cd45e.png

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

12z 180 such an awsome looking chart!

0A5117F4-6DF4-48A6-8E34-502CA9C34992.thumb.png.1c45092d1d5baab617bed84b07f5c751.png

198 looks full of promise , just need a good split up into Greenland !!

39499A5C-22A4-4360-B8AE-88B34A56AC0E.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

12z 180 such an awsome looking chart!

0A5117F4-6DF4-48A6-8E34-502CA9C34992.thumb.png.1c45092d1d5baab617bed84b07f5c751.png

Yes it is,mild sector getting squeezed out further south too with colder air in situ...

gfs-1-180.thumb.png.21d2bda50063a81ddde9298340560f6c.pnggfs-1-186.thumb.png.a9bca9d9276f9802ea4f4e166119d9e6.png

 

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

This is looking promising to say the least can we enough of a push from the mid Atlantic high to get to Greenland.

5B1A1700-9ADB-48BE-8BED-8C1398F24B5A.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

T+201, and things look good for at least a marginal rain-sleet-snow event...?:clapping:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Thats a 1995 type chart - Screams -15c for Scotland !

Jet fully south of the UK

4DCA41B9-B370-4983-8CFF-386B4345E376.thumb.png.6c682f22ce8967c894335c72169a9dbb.png

E35D3627-EAB8-4E36-9023-4FF244B7683E.png

 

If and its it’s a big IF this were to happen, somewhere would get a lot of snow

B242E277-0A6C-4B51-9B0E-CCAE93C65EB8.png

Edited by That ECM
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

 

I hear the pain of Southerners after seeing all the winter forecasts - Fear not - dumping for Central Southern England showing on the models when? oh hang on, let me just check, after 2 days worth of model runs of the winter.

image.thumb.png.8691202b878a6faa498c95e9a323d975.png

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

GFS you tease. Snow just about anywhere with this chart and -double figures in the north 

1A07093D-24C6-42E6-82B4-439ADBFFB2F9.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Snow event for the south if this run came off,plenty of chances also for other areas from the 10th.

gfs-2-222.thumb.png.10e37d15dfb4d908854dc9d1eb4aa9e8.png

 

 

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I hear the pain of Southerners after seeing all the winter forecasts - Fear not - dumping for Central Southern England showing on the models when? oh hang on, let me just check, after 2 days worth of model runs of the winter.

image.thumb.png.8691202b878a6faa498c95e9a323d975.png

Happy voting folks.

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

It's a fabulous run if cold is your thing, 234 is an awesome looking chart.  Once again, Election Day is throwing up some interest!

image.thumb.png.f2d94a649ced7a177cac34394c17cd93.png

Uppers should be the right side of marginal for most (just for fun at this range obviously).

image.thumb.png.7c0a4868d083d1ea82a367af5a89640c.png

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Some very heavy snow just off the south coast on this run. Gives a covering for the far south to wake up to on Election Day. Wouldn’t take take many adjustments to bring widespread disruptive snow 

23AC3AE6-3326-49F9-9F55-F82E58752BE6.png

B495D233-59EF-4F61-B463-E1B587B393EA.png

CC962043-BA99-4393-BC3A-6F9AD6BA2FE0.png

B982F539-3374-41C4-ADD8-9EABC9C3579B.png

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

I love a good ice day

gfs-9-264.png?12

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Happy voting folks.

Some wintryness for you as well, -6c isotherm in Northern Ireland, as far as i know there is some high ground in Northern Ireland.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Popular Post
Posted

My word!!!

day ten

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.71afab3ee02fbcd563e015ba5b628828.pnggfsnh-1-240.thumb.png.07c74a7c896076da482c6116c7fe93c9.png

hello @pv

dropping to lower lat's.

great 12z.

 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

As fun as that run is, we need to view it as JFF.  

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

That's a nice chart for December 11th, but I wouldn't quite want it to pan out like that. The heaviest of the precip stays out in the channel and it moves through extremely fast, so it wouldn't give any meaningful accumulations.

accprecip24_20191202_12_222.thumb.jpg.700dc77df94daac09bf6de67e146f7d3.jpg

It's academic, of course, but still nice to see!

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

As fun as that run is, we need to view it as JFF.  

Yes but arguably the building blocks are in place by day 8 for a cold spell so not super FI

Let's see what that eCM brings ;)

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Popular Post
Posted

It's nae often I say this, I know, but today's 12Z is a bit of a stonker!:oldgrin:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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