Model output discussion - late November

[swfc]

Morning.seems a bit quieter in here today after yesterday's booms and epic comments.anyway still on for a cold -cool snap before things hopefully settle down and dry out.as yesterday imo going into Dec looks unsettled and mobile but not mild with any high ground to the north catching any wintry conditions.

Edited November 25, 2019 by swfc

[Met4Cast]

A slight shift westwards at 138 on the 6z GFS.

Not quite good enough in terms of vertical convection but it's closer than the 00z was. Ideally we want to see that low head northwards up the western side of Greenland.

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, swfc said:

Morning.seems a bit quieter in here today after yesterday's booms and epic comments.anyway still on for a cold -cool snap before things hopefully settle down and dry out.as yesterday imo going into Dec looks unsettled and mobile but not mild with any high ground to the north catching any wintry conditions.

Yes and 06z is better in terms of placement of the high. 

[bluearmy]

I think the polar profile needs to settle before we know what will happen with the ridging to our west 

that seems quite fluid with differences, run to run, model to model inc potential ridging from the Pacific side 

Edited November 25, 2019 by bluearmy

[SLEETY]

gfs getting closer to the icon now.Another shift westwards again,after shifting eastwards overnight.Not a great model is it !

[Met4Cast]

This feature next weekend is starting to get my interest. The latest GFS keeps it to the south of the UK but a little further north and with a little more disruption it could bring some interest in terms of snowfall.

Light years away in terms of forecasting of course, but certainly something to watch as the week progresses!

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Yes and 06z is better in terms of placement of the high. 

It is just a variance in the run to run I guess.my point was that the nhp didn't look primed for any strong blocking because of the fluid and residue low pressure.more of a push from the Pacific may change that but a short cold snap for me.i could be wrong mind,ask my wife

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

It is just a variance in the run to run I guess.my point was that the nhp didn't look primed for any strong blocking because of the fluid and residue low pressure.more of a push from the Pacific may change that but a short cold snap for me.i could be wrong mind,ask my wife

I agree wrt to 3-5 day cold but opportunities will be coming further down the line IF we keep a similar profile and an opportunity for something more blocked and longer lasting.

[carinthian]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Yes and 06z is better in terms of placement of the high. 

Yes, looks like the Scandinavian trough being squeezed by a resurgent Russian High and stronger heights further west. The more acute the trough to the east creates a better prospect of prolonging a cold spell over the British Isles and increases prospects of Arctic sourced troughs to develop in the flow. Best not look much further than 144t but a colder spell goods a good bet towards weekend. The weekend wave or low I think is still in the air as regards to track and intensity. We should know better in the next few runs. UKMO seems the lesser of the models regarding this development but sure is there on our teams models. Could be a interesting weekend over Southern England as the cold air gets in places near to the passage of this low. Still a long way off, lets get the cold in place first. Out today, so will not get back with an update from the team until later this evening. Have good model viewing.

C

 

[Kentspur]

I'm liking the GEM this morning in particular. Winds crossing over less of the North sea down in the SE

Edited November 25, 2019 by Kentspur

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I agree wrt to 3-5 day cold but opportunities will be coming further down the line IF we keep a similar profile and an opportunity for something more blocked and longer lasting.

Yes it's not a bad profile up to 5-7days.if you look beyond that tho the west to east bias soon kicks in on the models.all subject to change but a theme may be emerging or not???

[Kentspur]

Not much hope on offer on the GFS 6z no decent Northeasterly to start the month and then the high flattens, moves closer with Westerlies until FI when we may have a Northerly let's hope it's an outlier

[Yarmy]

27 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

A slight shift westwards at 138 on the 6z GFS.

Not quite good enough in terms of vertical convection but it's closer than the 00z was. Ideally we want to see that low head northwards up the western side of Greenland.

Also would need some of the energy to separate and go under the block. I had a scan through the 0z GEFS to see if any members had that, and just about the only one that did was Perturb 11:

 

So highly unlikely, you'd think. 

 

[StretfordEnd1996]

4 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Not much hope on offer on the GFS 6z no decent Northeasterly to start the month and then the high flattens, moves closer with Westerlies until FI when we may have a Northerly let's hope it's an outlier

It may not be as pronounced as other models but it would still be very cold for a time

I'd say there's plenty of hope on offer, it's already an improvement on the 00z

[sorepaw1]

Good morning everyone. 

I'm in need of a bit of help.

For a while now I've wondered why high pressures that build over Greenland and Scandinavia.  Always want to move south unless they are above 1048mb

And low pressures are more likely further north and more dominant further north than say over Spain or Greece. 

Here's an example below taken from today's 06z GFS.

Thanks for any advice or a link to help me understand 

Regards Steve  sorepaw.

 

[Tim Bland]

Another run showing the second northerly a week later so definitely a trend now...not a bad start to winter

Edited November 25, 2019 by Tim Bland

[Jordan S]

49 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

This feature next weekend is starting to get my interest. The latest GFS keeps it to the south of the UK but a little further north and with a little more disruption it could bring some interest in terms of snowfall.

Light years away in terms of forecasting of course, but certainly something to watch as the week progresses!

I noted this system last night as being one to watch but its being shown to slip south and taking the Ecm, Gem and Gfs together it shows this.. 

Rain perhaps briefly for the far southwest with a strong southeast wind but its then shown slipping southeast into northern France fairly swiftly.. As its a few days away there's room for change and Ofcourse it could be trended north again and if that happens then the risk of snow heightens but current indications show this to stay mostly to the south and I think it'll remain that way. 

Edited November 25, 2019 by jordan smith

[Methuselah]

Ooooooooooooh...I do like the way this might be going:

   

Let's hope it's a trend toward a repeating pattern, and not just a figment of quantum space-time-imagination!

[swfc]

17 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Good morning everyone. 

I'm in need of a bit of help.

For a while now I've wondered why high pressures that build over Greenland and Scandinavia.  Always want to move south unless they are above 1048mb

And low pressures are more likely further north and more dominant further north than say over Spain or Greece. 

Here's an example below taken from today's 06z GFS.

Thanks for any advice or a link to help me understand 

Regards Steve  sorepaw.

 

Hi.there is a learning area on here btw.most of southern Europe has a semi permanent high more dominant in summer.in autumn and winter the temp gradient fires up the polar vortex and the north of Europe is generally unsettled with a west to east bias.you prob noticed good blocking towards the far north in summer because of the higher temps.blocking towards Greenland is more probable and sustainable in Jan -feb when the PV may temper.there are exceptions via a ssw etc

Edited November 25, 2019 by swfc

[Tim Bland]

Personally I’d bank the 06z GFS, it’s far better and more interesting than recent December’s. On this run there are 3 opportunities for arctic incursions. It doesn’t matter so much if the PV fires up to our north west, as long as Low pressure systems dig into Europe we only need small wedges to create northerlies, even if they ultimately topple. If we can get this pattern to start December we can enjoy a few chase and some seasonal weather whilst we await a SSW to break up the PV and give us a shot at a more substantial cold spell 

[knocker]

Hoping for a dry weekend for a change so keeping a beady

Edited November 25, 2019 by knocker

[weirpig]

Way out  but control also going with the idea of rises towards greenland  seems to be a theme   wouldnt be to bad to usher in winter

[weirpig]

And repeat on the Ensembles    Looks like a pattern of  a few topplers    colder  milder than colder   i would have thought it favours  wintry showers on the hills further north    

[IDO]

The GFS 06z 100% support for the next 10 days viz the ridge and topple:

T168>>  T216>> 

Cold looking high probability:

Mean T168>> 

So circa 5-day cold spell, with limited opportunity of snow for the majority.

After D10 the 06z op is a variation on the 0z theme of a second cold shot. Downstream more relevant, this time the Russian high is sharper, so the trough is better for the UK to get colder air. Obviously too early for depth of cold or snow chances, assuming it verifies, GEFS not yet on board.

[Methuselah]

Indeed...Though the -10C T850s have disappeared, from EA at least, they've been replaced by a sustained period of -6s; so, cold enough for some sort of wintry precipitation...?

   
 

   

The postage stamps say something too, but I can't find my telescope!