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December 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the 2019-2020 competition year


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Sunny Sheffield down to 5.5C -0.5C degrees below normal, Rainfall 40.9mm 47.1% of the monthly average. Gut feeling says we got a good chance of finishing above average temperature wise which I don't want to see

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According to the table of entries, this would be the top ten in CET scoring for December. List includes their EWP forecasts if they made one.  _ (number in brackets is order of entry ... with equ

On behalf of J10 and myself, welcome to another new competition year with the winter season of 2019-20 fast approaching. The contests will include the CET forecast and the (still optional) EWP forecas

5.8 confirmed.  (disappointed that they rejected 5.9, thought maybe we had it finally)

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On 13/12/2019 at 20:38, North-Easterly Blast said:

I do not think that 1970s Decembers were great from a cold perspective either, although most Decembers of the 1960s were on the cold side, with a good number of them having good cold spells at times.  That said, since the 1800s at least, Decembers have rarely been noted for anything severely cold.  Since about 1890, I think that only two Decembers stand out as having a prolonged freeze up (1981 and 2010), apart from that, not a lot, except a few other years that saw a good cold spell of a week or more.

During the 2010s, the first half of Dec 2012 was actually quite cold, but then turned much milder after mid-month.  The first half of Dec 2017 was another one that was quite chilly but then turned milder in time for the Christmas period.

First half of December 2012 was stunning in Essex.

Edited by Relativistic
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42 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

First half of December 2012 was stunning in Essex.

Yes, December 2012 had a very good start but went pear shaped unfortunately.  Who can forget 'THAT ECM' moment?!  All models were in agreement of a great cold spell with the metoffice fully on board, but then did a big U turn overnight and that was that!  However, at least the winter as a whole was fairly decent with January, February and especially March being cold and snowy at times.

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5 hours ago, snowray said:

There's been lots of heavy rain about, how are we doing for rainfall totals at mid month I wonder?

The EWP was at 48 mm after 13 days and added about 7 mm on the 14th, is probably near 57 mm now, and is predicted to add 30 mm (on average over the grid) in the coming ten days, which would be 87 mm by Christmas Day and could be close to my earlier stated estimate of 111.1 by end of the month. This is a fairly normal pace. Even the NWEP sector has only an average of 63 mm to 13th but I suspect some locations within that are well over 100 mm. The Midlands and East Anglia (CEP zone) have been holding the average down somewhat.

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29 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

The EWP was at 48 mm after 13 days and added about 7 mm on the 14th, is probably near 57 mm now, and is predicted to add 30 mm (on average over the grid) in the coming ten days, which would be 87 mm by Christmas Day and could be close to my earlier stated estimate of 111.1 by end of the month. This is a fairly normal pace. Even the NWEP sector has only an average of 63 mm to 13th but I suspect some locations within that are well over 100 mm. The Midlands and East Anglia (CEP zone) have been holding the average down somewhat.

Thank's for the update Roger.

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The latest EWP projections are somewhat higher than before and 120 mm is the new provisional estimate. I won't revise the excel file until we have either a larger shift or we reach the end of the month and it's necessary. CET might struggle to get past 6.0 at any point and the inevitable downward revision makes me think 5.5 might be as good a place to be as any. 

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Sunny Sheffield down to 5.1C -0.7C below normal. Rainfall unchanged. Interesting the ever so reliable "cough" GFS has now gone for general cool days and mild nights. This will probably mean the month will end up around normal to slightly above normal due to the nights.

Edited by The PIT
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The EWP projections may be rising with latest data as follows:

66 mm to 16th and probably also 17th (a relatively dry day 0-1 mm).

40-50 mm on average to 28th with heavier amounts in the south.

wet looking charts around 30th-31st could add 20-30.

That all adds up to about 126-146 mm for the month. 

Almost all of our forecasts are below 146 mm but even LG at 200 mm is not out of the running with this wet scenario ahead. 

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Sunny Sheffield still at 5C -0.6C below normal. Rainfall 50.2mm 57.8% of the monthly average. Looking like a mild month overall with around average rainfall by the looks of things today.

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EWP update, 78 mm to the 18th, and about 7-10 mm likely to be added for the 19th, then GFS ten-day estimate is 25 mm (wetter in south, but that's about the average for the grid). That takes us to mid-day 30th and a wet frontal system moves through by the 31st, adding 10 mm for that brings us to around 120 mm. The provisional scoring table (based on 111.1 mm) is staying relevant so no update on that. The CET probably won't move much in either direction to end of month, after corrections may be closer to 5.5 than 6.0. 

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18 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP update, 78 mm to the 18th, and about 7-10 mm likely to be added for the 19th, then GFS ten-day estimate is 25 mm (wetter in south, but that's about the average for the grid). That takes us to mid-day 30th and a wet frontal system moves through by the 31st, adding 10 mm for that brings us to around 120 mm. The provisional scoring table (based on 111.1 mm) is staying relevant so no update on that. The CET probably won't move much in either direction to end of month, after corrections may be closer to 5.5 than 6.0. 

All it has seemed to do down here is rain every day, I cant see how its not higher totals.
We are not used to it at all here, not sure how people cope with the incessant rain that other places round the country have lol..

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