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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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Apart from a more coherent vortex over northern Russia and a less intense ridge west north America the ext EPS is much along the same lines as the GEFs except it does make rather more of the ridge/vortex extension over southern Greenland and thus the latter concentrates the upper flow in the eastern Atlantic where the weakening European ridge has become less influential This would portend unsettled with temps around average perhaps a tad above.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5115200.thumb.png.5d7eccdb51d602028d9d4ce06e1792ba.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5115200.thumb.png.bfd29c06491550b3156d42b429d86932.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-5115200.thumb.png.cffe6ca05f2154b54ca310defcff044a.png

NOAA is in the same ball park

814day_03.thumb.gif.d0217dd003c26aaf43b55ce9134dac69.gif

 

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2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Although potential and realization are two entirely different things, today's GFS 12Z operational ends with plenty of the former. Now that mainland Europe looks to be, at last, showing signs of a cool-down...?

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Cool down?  Are we above average now Pete?

 

BFTP

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8 minutes ago, Don said:

That’s because winter is fast approaching!  Have the early promising signs let us down yet again?!

I suspect Dec 2019 will follow Dec 2009, Jan 2020 (Ala 2010 will be interestingly.)   

There's something in the background that the models are picking up. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

I suspect Dec 2019 will follow Dec 2009, Jan 2020 (Ala 2010 will be interestingly.)   

There's something in the background that the models are picking up. 

 

I would be very happy with that indeed!  However the models seem trending the wrong way ATM.

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4 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

I suspect Dec 2019 will follow Dec 2009, Jan 2020 (Ala 2010 will be interestingly.)   

There's something in the background that the models are picking up. 

 

I don't really see a 2009/2010 at all. It's just wishful thinking to assume otherwise IMO.

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Looking at the GEFS 12z there's hints here and there of wintry weather late Nov / early Dec. There's no need to be downbeat regarding poor background signals, last winter we had great background signals that delivered diddly-squat!!!..👍

6_276_850tmp.thumb.png.59746ddd784449169be0fe808b66e98e.png3_300_850tmp.thumb.png.4e6f1e6165e1d31afacecf27a21a2f12.png16_288_850tmp.thumb.png.506776572c1ac6ecf849bce2e650a871.png19_384_850tmp.thumb.png.69e4fdb7e2abb9650857707dad46efed.png 

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The direction of travel is most definitely more more mobile as we head into December on the extended ens with the slow weakening of the sceuro ridge allowing the jet to head further north and make headway into nw Europe 

of course the pendulum could swing back over the next few days ..........

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Just to offer a different view on the winter prospects I decided to take a look at where we were this time last year, 2017 and 2016.

2018 

GFS

gfsnh-0-186.thumb.png.1f41e9efbd0a0fa119a53f406f968b14.png

 

ECM

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.43b8aad125678aae8333605c8483ba81.gif

 

2017

GFS

1403829025_gfsnh-0-186(1).thumb.png.3645fcceec01966e050f0484f09266a9.png

ECM 

401524626_ECH1-192(1).thumb.gif.2fd1a0af9c13096d8043623a3c92b4df.gif

2016 

GFS

1720195622_gfsnh-0-180(1).thumb.png.53e5b9ec59c614fb79cfd1a18e114c5e.png

ECM

316282982_ECH1-192(3).thumb.gif.72c16b89609bef135d147713a104ed2f.gif

 

So just a quick snapshot of the last 3 years and maybe a slight tempering of my own enthusiasm. 

On thing they all have in common including this year is higher heights across the pole and a disorganised vortex. 

As they say the rest is history. 

 

 

 

Edited by ALL ABOARD
Change

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Cheer up fellow cold hunters, very early days just yet.... Forget 2010 repeat for December!! Let's focus on an82 or 87/88 type freeze. 😉 To be honest the ECM mean does come down, at is definitely better than last nights affair. Looking at the extended ens, I feel we have perhaps more of a pressure build!! And with a mean around 0-1C, perhaps some chillier conditions with night frosts the order of the day.... Pretty good seasonal conditions if that comes off!! I say this because the mean is trending towards a 1010mb by months end! All in all, it's just another offish day in the mad world of model watching for the UK... Things could be looking a whole lot better this time next week!! Or worse, whatever floats ya boats... Enjoy the rest of your evenings. 

graphe_ens3.png

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33 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

So just a quick snapshot of the last 3 years and maybe a slight tempering of my own enthusiasm. 

On thing they all have in common including this year is higher heights across the pole and a disorganised vortex. 

As they say the rest is history. 

 

Yes and two of the three winters that followed were pants!  17/18 was saved by the February 18 SSW.  Those long range seasonal models cannot be ignored and remain bullish.

Edited by Don

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1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Cool down?  Are we above average now Pete?

BFTP

Indeed not, Fred...But, neither are we in mainland Europe!:gathering:

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Late to the models tonight. Very disappointed I have to say, Dreadful ECM particularly. Vile, at this point I’d take the high building in over us to stop this horrendous deluge of rain.

Not seen much like it here on the south coast, sure we see a fair bit of rain but it’s been truly incessant and particularly heavy for the last few weeks or so.

Still, it’s not even December yet, I’m sure our time will come! 

Edited by Weathizard

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1 hour ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Just to offer a different view on the winter prospects I decided to take a look at where we were this time last year, 2017 and 2016.

2018 

GFS

 

 

ECM

 

 

So just a quick snapshot of the last 3 years and maybe a slight tempering of my own enthusiasm. 

On thing they all have in common including this year is higher heights across the pole and a disorganised vortex. 

As they say the rest is history. 

 

 

 

I have said this recently, its just a theory i have but the period of VI is happening later because of the sea ice loss so you have to almost judge things as if it were still October - perhaps 2-3 weeks earlier so it is not as good as it seems, however, IMO the dice are massively loaded in our favour for a midwinter change this time.

@CreweCold - the strat charts yesterday offered a little hope but perhaps optimistic to think that a 2009-10 - a little early for cold 17th Dec - however i do see a possibility of 1985-1986.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I have said this recently, its just a theory i have but the period of VI is happening later because of the sea ice loss so you have to almost judge things as if it were still October - perhaps 2-3 weeks earlier so it is not as good as it seems

That’s an interesting point Feb.

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11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I have said this recently, its just a theory i have but the period of VI is happening later because of the sea ice loss so you have to almost judge things as if it were still October - perhaps 2-3 weeks earlier so it is not as good as it seems, however, IMO the dice are massively loaded in our favour for a midwinter change this time.

@CreweCold - the strat charts yesterday offered a little hope but perhaps optimistic to think that a 2009-10 - a little early for cold 17th Dec - however i do see a possibility of 1985-1986.

What is the period VI?

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Just now, damianslaw said:

What is the period VI?

Vortex intensification - so what i am basically saying is the charts with a mangled spannered vortex that sometimes people get excited about are the equivalent of an October chart 50 years ago so are not necessarily as good as they seem as October is more likely to produce those charts in the normal course of events without way the climate has evolved over the last few decades as the polar vortex isn't usually as well formed by then.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Vortex intensification - so what i am basically saying is the charts with a mangled spannered vortex that sometimes people get excited about are the equivalent of an October chart 50 years ago so are not necessarily as good as they seem as October is more likely to produce those charts in the normal course of events without way the climate has evolved over the last few decades as the polar vortex isn't usually as well formed by then.

Good point Feb. 

Wish we had full data runs to the 50s as I'd love to do a comparison. 

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1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Good point Feb. 

Wish we had full data runs to the 50s as I'd love to do a comparison. 

We have got analysis charts back to the 50's - back to 1851 in fact - strat charts dont go back as far on meteociel but you can re-analyse on the NOAA charts.

 

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Vortex intensification - so what i am basically saying is the charts with a mangled spannered vortex that sometimes people get excited about are the equivalent of an October chart 50 years ago so are not necessarily as good as they seem as October is more likely to produce those charts in the normal course of events without way the climate has evolved over the last few decades as the polar vortex isn't usually as well formed by then.

Thanks for clarification, certainly in recent years, the PV seems to have taken until early December before it has started to get its act together, so I can see some logic in what you are saying. Lets see where we are in a couple of weeks time, if by then we are still seeing a fragmented disorganised PV in the longer term output, then mmm perhaps it isn't ever going to get its act together this winter.. 

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3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What an absolutely magnificent ECM 12z.

image.thumb.png.dc523e13162c621200581efea551579a.png

The whole thing has collapsed in the space of 48 hours worth of runs.

I think I'll be sticking to the GFS ensembles on this to maybe the first couple of weeks of the CFS ensembles-as this has gone from a 50 50 split between strong zonal winds in Feb and a SSW to all ensembles showing above average zonal winds including a record strong ensemble member on the latest run. It must be picking up on a new signal. The positive to take though is that the shorter range ensembles continue to look fairly promising and it will no doubt change dramatically again

20191116_221117.jpg

20191116_221052.jpg

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7 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I think I'll be sticking to the GFS ensembles on this to maybe the first couple of weeks of the CFS ensembles-as this has gone from a 50 50 split between strong zonal winds in Feb and a SSW to all ensembles showing above average zonal winds including a record strong ensemble member on the latest run. It must be picking up on a new signal. The positive to take though is that the shorter range ensembles continue to look fairly promising and it will no doubt change dramatically again

 

 

2 of the 4 CFS's do go for an SSW but anyway the GFS is pretty strong support for a significant warming, maybe not an SSW but we will need further runs to ascertain this as its not in range yet.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Here she comes!

image.thumb.png.1195b4a416e0a79936a20da06059cca4.png

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here she comes!

image.thumb.png.1195b4a416e0a79936a20da06059cca4.png

Yep another strong warming on the 18z . Let’s hope they keep up . 

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598EEB35-4693-4CF8-9290-F0B538B24158.png

005D24C2-13BE-4198-92E6-2F7CC59BF953.png

Edited by ICE COLD

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