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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 12z T336:

image.thumb.jpg.cd887fd4adae6ac24aa9487d6fde27d2.jpg

Split asunder!

In FI the 0z, 6z and 12z have all been different but one thing in common, vortex decimation!

Lows are sliding west of U.K., Svalbard HP is growing, this is close to a long drawn Siberian Easterly feed!! 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes.Although that limpit trough took an eternity to shift mid run.

 

Might still deliver right at the end, i thought it would need a few goes of those lows / shortwaves shuffling and dumbelling first, the pattern to the East and North East is ripe for a beast, reminds me a bit of some of the runs before the late Feb 18 Easterly.

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GEFS are a stonker, over half are likely to go on to have cracking NH patterns, might not show in graph form admittedly.

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Wish this run did go to the end of November! That low to our west will slide SE and drag in the  bitter cold from our East..Across a mild North Sea brining heavy snow from the east...Am I getting carried away!? ❄️☃️

5B223E20-83F3-4B43-B67C-D157FC33D248.png

D073339C-7586-4A31-9F9A-64C504A437E5.png

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10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 12z T336:

image.thumb.jpg.cd887fd4adae6ac24aa9487d6fde27d2.jpg

Split asunder!

In FI the 0z, 6z and 12z have all been different but one thing in common, vortex decimation!

Remarkable Mike... And what a great picture of 2 huge feet about to either walk all over us, or kick us to United Kingdom come, if you pardon the pun... Great vortex separation all the same. 

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2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Wish this run did go to the end of November! That low to our west will slide SE and drag in the  bitter cold from our East..Across a mild North Sea brining heavy snow from the east...Am I getting carried away!? ❄️☃️

5B223E20-83F3-4B43-B67C-D157FC33D248.png

D073339C-7586-4A31-9F9A-64C504A437E5.png

Mabye a little but who wouldn't with synoptics like those 😝🙂

Edited by jordan smith

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GFS 12z ends like this:

image.thumb.jpg.bc09edac1255da878d39d855c4511c39.jpg

Sure from UK snow perspective this run has been nothing special, but we're not expecting anything before late Nov, right?  In terms of the NH it is massive, and such a pattern would give rise to possibilities into Dec, even as worst case scenario from here would take some considerable time I imagine for the strat vortex to override that kind of setup...obviously is T384, but given how the last 3 runs have set up, what I've said would probably apply, I think we're on to something.

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 12z ends like this:

image.thumb.jpg.bc09edac1255da878d39d855c4511c39.jpg

Sure from UK snow perspective this run has been nothing special, but we're not expecting anything before late Nov, right?  In terms of the NH it is massive, and such a pattern would give rise to possibilities into Dec, even as worst case scenario from here would take some considerable time I imagine for the strat vortex to override that kind of setup...obviously is T384, but given how the last 3 runs have set up, what I've said would probably apply, I think we're on to something.

we had a split mid-december 2017 (and 2016 iirc), the surprisingly recovered swiftly and with a vengeance even

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I've got November 2010 stuck in my head today 

WOW.thumb.png.00f8a2e1d9ae628a820d1de67ebc6d07.png

Stunning outputs yet again!

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9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

12Z Operational is looking very good, for further-on down the line...An incipient stonker!!! A stonker-in-waiting even!!!:yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Not too bothered by the details, but it'd be a humdinger of a -NAO...were it to materialise!:shok:

23 years to the day since the snowfest! '96 ruled

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1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

i just hope that the trop and strat can stay single from here until eternity

Or at least until a vortex split in Jan...🙂

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Very happy with the latest runs. Typical autumnal weather on the way with temps mostly below average for next week. With no immediate sign of a return of the Atlantic, most should be happy. Great start to what I hope will be an active winter 😁

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The gfs op/control where the warmest of the pack but northern hemispheric wise was good

graphe_ens3_ggi3.thumb.gif.e67a2837c36a650681a05706c7535e39.gif 

the control would be good from here

gensnh-0-1-384.thumb.png.bb16cc264ac485d421ec49a21c05db74.png

here are some juicy cherries picked out

P5

gensnh-5-1-384.thumb.png.11c7cdc3a90164734c489a445ddcadc9.pnggensnh-5-0-384.thumb.png.d4e3610393dbbc77b68972d3aaf579ff.png

P20,7

gensnh-7-1-384.thumb.png.cbbefb0c39ee0515c73ed93eaf428736.pnggensnh-20-1-384.thumb.png.8079428c9ddc83c9f6c4d0e8699fde64.png

ALL fl of coarse but nice to see,the UKMO is best of the bunch at 144 hrs.

 UN144-21.thumb.gif.1026b8592159380946307f99d4cd3031.gif

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Nice to see you tulight isobar wondered where you been.Lets hope the ECM keeps the theme of the NH profile!

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Some cracking 12z ensembles.... If anything the mean is a tad lower than the 6z! P5 was a thing of beauty, plenty of other cold runs to, but this one literally brings an early Beast from the East.. - 8c widely with colder air not to far away... Hope this trend continues, or that we don't peak to early!!!! Nahhhhhh... Happy days. 😉

gens-3-1-312.png

gens-5-0-312.png

gens-5-0-336.png

graphe3_1000_285_76___.png

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ECM 12z T168, going for the rabbit on roller skates going downhill look:

image.thumb.jpg.335494a1780041e263435ee2b44d9a29.jpg

But big amplification so far, let's see how this one evolves...

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Just for a wee bit of fun, here are the GEFS 12Zs for Moscow. There are some stonkers in them, too!:oldgrin:

prmslMoscow.png   t850Moscow.png

t2mMoscow.png   prcpMoscow.png

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Just for a wee bit of fun, here are the GEFS 12Zs for Moscow. There are some stonkers in them, too!:oldgrin:

   t850Moscow.png

 

Depends what you class as stonkers - -10c uppers is bog standard for Moscow, just means daytime freezing temps which is pretty standard fare - wished we had their winter climate.

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