Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Hi Mike, in my experience, long range weather forecasts are often 'revised' at short notice... 

From what I've seen, the teleconnections are a little 'unusual' this year. I don't expect this winter (or the next...) to conform to our usual expectations... 

Totally agree, me neither!  The interest this year is massive, and the uncertainty just stokes it further, it should be a very interesting winter model watching, whether that translates into snow watching is to be decided...

[Hotspur62]

Just watched bbc news 24 and it looks colder than average till early part of next week with winds from a north or north eastern quadrant.Thereafter it seems that they feel the Atlantic will break through and winds will come from a south or south westerly direction with temperatures recovering to average for time of year.Throughout the period it seems it will be wetter than average which is not good news for the poor souls that are flooded

[January Snowstorm]

The 18z run from gfs is shaping up to be quite an upgrade...heights much better to our North stretching towards Greenland. 

Interesting FI methinks!!

[booferking]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

The 18z run from gfs is shaping up to be quite an upgrade...heights much better to our North stretching towards Greenland. 

Interesting FI methinks!!

Yea jet stream has slowed right down by then.

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The 18z run from gfs is shaping up to be quite an upgrade...heights much better to our North stretching towards Greenland. 

Interesting FI methinks!!

Yes, interesting run this, T180:

I think we might have factored in the hellish weather that those 3 lows might bring!  Be interesting to see if the high heights manage to retrogress on this run...

Edit: well no it doesn't, and this morphs into a horror show with the trough just sat there at T234;

Umbrella anyone?

 

Edited November 12, 2019 by Mike Poole

[knocker]

58 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

The most sensible, realistic and on the money post that has been written on here in many a moon.

That' a pretty damning appraisal of others who post regularly in the thread

[Duane S.]

Notwithstanding the fact that the weather on the ground will be potentially pretty dire, this is not standard stuff at all.

The jet, in fact the NH in general, looking very out of kilter to the norm. Fascinating viewing for mid November.

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Stonethecrows said:

The most sensible, realistic and on the money post that has been written on here in many a moon.

How very dare you ! 
 

it was a sensible post, I’ll grant you that ......

[damianslaw]

37 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Notwithstanding the fact that the weather on the ground will be potentially pretty dire, this is not standard stuff at all.

The jet, in fact the NH in general, looking very out of kilter to the norm. Fascinating viewing for mid November.

There are hallmarks of November 2009 in the pattern so far this month and set to continue. Nov 2009 was dominated by a trough, which sat further to the NW, meaning NW parts received most of the heaviest rain, and heights sat strong to the NE and east which locked it in place, earlier in the month it dived south, around mid month it dragged in a very mild SW flow, by the end of the month it sank down through the UK again and brought a northerly.. interesting parallels.. the difference in the position of the trough this month is meaning it is turning into a much colder month than Nov 2009 which heaviest falls of rain in more central locations.

The azores high also sat far to the SW in 2009 - it never got a foot in, it tried to ridge NE just after mid month allowing for a return to mild SW winds, but was forced to retreat back SW again later in the month, when it resurged again in early part of December it migrated to join with heights to the east, and well was never to be seen again for the rest of that winter..

Edited November 12, 2019 by damianslaw

[booferking]

Pick of the 18z ENS Day 8..

Edited November 12, 2019 by booferking

[feb1991blizzard]

14 minutes ago, booferking said:

Pick of the 18z ENS Day 8..

 

Loads threaten but few deliver.

 

 

Edited November 12, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Loads threaten but few deliver.

 

Those ens are not a pretty sight - yuk!

I suspect the best hope of any sort of drying out will come from a Euro high and the jet riding north of the UK..

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Those ens are not a pretty sight - yuk!

I suspect the best hope of any sort of drying out will come from a Euro high and the jet riding north of the UK..

 

Ouch - thats even worse because that would pretty much rule out the first half of December - don't fancy that at all although wouldn't be wholly surprising IMO.

[ICE COLD]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Loads threaten but few deliver.

 

Let’s have no 16 please. A very nice run on that one . 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Ouch - thats even worse because that would pretty much rule out the first half of December - don't fancy that at all although wouldn't be wholly surprising IMO.

TBH Feb i would snatch your hand off for a Euro high and the jet moving north right now.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

^^

Yes 16 the pick- some decent NH patterns but the less good ones outweighing them - earlier runs better IMO.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

TBH Feb i would snatch your hand off for a Euro high and the jet moving north right now.

 

I prefer the trough TBH.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I prefer the trough TBH.

I have had a gut full of troughs for the time being.

Difficult to see a route out of this pattern , there is some energy in the southern arm but too much in the northern arm, eventually i suspect the jet will move north and we will see a Euro high,ideally getting far enough north to form a sceuro, and colder air at the surface for the UK..

[BlueHedgehog074]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Those ens are not a pretty sight - yuk!

I suspect the best hope of any sort of drying out will come from a Euro high and the jet riding north of the UK..

 

Have no fear!

GFS Perturbation 3,

And GFS Perturbation 11,

 

Shows High Pressure having a late night feast - the UK trough! All gobbled up and inside the High’s belly 
 

[Jordan S]

Thought to add a touch of animation to the charts to bring a bit of life into it press the images to enlarge.. I'll include east anglia on my next update if it'll let me let me know if you like it if not I'll drop the idea..

So rain heavy at times pushing slowly northeast through tomorrow evening then across many central and southern parts of England and Wales with some snow over the hills of Wales at times and perhaps the west Midlands.. The rain then gets very slow moving over central and southern Wales the Midlands and East anglia during Thursday morning into the afternoon pushing into the flood effected areas potentially too for a time only slowly easing later.. 

9pm this evening (Wednesday) to 3am..tomorrow morning (Thursday).. 

Tomorrow (Thursday) 9am and 3pm..

9pm tomorrow.. 

Edited November 13, 2019 by jordan smith

[Allseasons-Si]

@jordan smith,like the animation,thanks

sorry for the late post

We are still in a good position if these trends carry on

NAO/AO

although not massively neg they keep the zonal train down of which i am still not seeing and keeping in to context a more meridian flow N/S or S/N within the Uk

the latest 10hpa animation from the 18z gfs does shunt the TPV towards the Siberian side and there could be hints of a Canadian warming later on,will have to watch this

from jma this evening which is the first to show a warming in the 264 range.

lets see how these play out over the coming days but i have a feeling that something is stirring.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 13, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[Mucka]

Some people have short memories.

The Winter of 2010/11 snow fell to low levels from Nov 24th which led to a record breaking cold and snowy December.

Personally I say get the cold and snow in as quickly as possible because there is no guarantee it will arrive later.

I have lost count the amount of times we have been told to be patient because of this or that background signal with hope-casts that never come to fruition.

Maybe that is because I am perfectly okay with a front loaded Winter whereas others would rather see a back-loaded Winter which can usually get colder tbf

 

 

Edited November 13, 2019 by Mucka

[Ali1977]

Day 7 GFS Op rubbish, the MEAN is better but  it looks like there’s less cold options. I still expect some swings over the next few days but deep cold although never likely, now looks less likely IMO. 

Edited November 13, 2019 by Ali1977

[knocker]

Over the next 36 hours the frontal wave currently south of Iceland will develop and track south east to the UK where it re-orientates courtesy of the trough in the western Atlantic which initiates downstream amplification of the subtropical high and the buckling of the jet The sequence

A bit more detail starting with the North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis

Apart from a few showers in north west coastal regions a clear and cold start to the day with a severe frost over Scotland, It will remain clear and sunny for many areas but showery rain will move into western areas during the morning followed by the main band of heavy rain by mid afternoon which will then move a little west with the low now centred over the Irish Sea at 1800

Keeping in mind the opening comments during this evening and overnight the front pivots across south Wales and southern England so persistent rain in these areas with snow on the higher ground in Wales.Further north showers feeding into eastern coastal areas

The front and rain continue to pivot through Thursday but the situation is further complicated by another band of rain just to the north associated with another front linked to a low near southern Norway. There is still some uncertainty as to how far north the rain will get which is important as the last thing the flooded areas need is more rain. Feeling cold

The re-orientation of the trough continues overnight and through Friday as the ridge nudges in from the west resulting in a NW/SE split. Sunny with odd shower in the former and cloudy with frequent showers in the latter

Apart from cloud and showery rain lingering in the south east Saturday should be a sunny day albeit rather cold But there is another frontal system west of Ireland struggling east

A feeling of deja vu  on Sunday as once more rapid cyclogenisis takes place in the NW Atlantic which pumps up the downstream high resulting in the aforementioned frontal system being relegated south with the trailing occlusion across N. Ireland and Scotland accompanied by patchy rain And there is still some patchy rain in the south east courtesy of the old occlusion

 

 

[SLEETY]

GFS wants to bring in milder air in this run,but that's in lala land,so not worth bothering with that.

In the reliable time frame, continuing as before,and very wet for some places over the next week.