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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS 6z is a good run...

Nothing like the awful EC!!

I agree although the Svalbard high looks like being shut off early which will hinder the severe cold coming our way!! 
 

Not sure how the WAA from SW Russia will come into play for later down the run. It needs to get in , reinforce and get the hell away!!

2C75D0E4-B4F1-41D9-8978-18F5564C913A.png

Edited by Ali1977

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

I agree although the Svalbard high looks like being shut off early which will hinder the severe cold coming our way!! 

Im more concerned about rain , flooding at the moment.

GFS dry and cold..

That is  much better than EC low fest.

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Well sadly this run didn’t follow the 00z, I’m hoping the 00z verifies more often than the 06z !! GFS Prob half way house to ECM by day 10

7E1C188E-C6ED-4A7B-9B59-C696E3B24211.png

03349D15-4B31-46C7-B40A-3BCB6CDC397A.png

3A0D76F0-C39D-49FF-8DC7-2592AF752875.png

Edited by Ali1977

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im more concerned about rain , flooding at the moment.

GFS dry and cold..

That is  much better than EC low fest.

Yes NW Sheffield could be on a dodgy wicket yet again shortly.☹️looks like the 6z has changed somewhat with the easterly and possibly some middle ground with EC???

Edited by swfc

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5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well sadly this run didn’t follow the 00z, I’m hoping the 00z verifies more often than the 06z !! GFS Prob half way house to ECM by day 10

7E1C188E-C6ED-4A7B-9B59-C696E3B24211.png

03349D15-4B31-46C7-B40A-3BCB6CDC397A.png

Variation of the theme it followed the 00z run just not as extreme cold wise 168hr - 192hr critical period to watch..

gfsnh-0-192.png

gfsnh-0-198.png

Edited by booferking

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Just now, booferking said:

Variation of the theme it followed the 00z run just not as extreme cold wise 168hr - 192hr critical period to watch..

Looks very cold 6z...

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Just now, booferking said:

Variation of the theme it followed the 00z run just not as extreme cold wise 168hr - 192hr critical period to watch..

Yup, FI is early at the minute. For all this blocking what we have never had is a set of GEFS anywhere near a -5c 850 mean, until we get that nothing really worth hanging out for!!! 

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Well the Atlantic gets i n deep into FI on 6z but plenty of dry cold weather beforehand so miles better than EC..

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Well the Atlantic gets i n deep into FI on 6z but plenty of dry cold weather beforehand so miles better than EC..

Greenland high maybe later on.😀

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Why is it that there is never a problem with shortwaves to sort out the heights around Greenland, yet there is never one to get rid of this Eastern Europe/Western Russian high pressure which just sits there and gets even stronger by time

Capture.PNG

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The ensembles and data this morning look rather confused if you ask me. The ECM op becomes warmer, while the mean remains chilly. We're as the GFS op goes really cold, both these scenarios were somewhat outliers..... The mean does remain chilly though. The models do not have a handle on the upcoming events right now.... And in my opinion the long range models also have the same problem moving ahead!!! Interesting times ahead! Big respect to all our heroes, both past and present.... Always in our thoughts.. Enjoy your days folks. 

graphe_ens3.png

graphe3_1000_283_93___.png

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Best not get too hung-up over the details just now? Not only does the 06Z op. scream OUTLIER, there's no sign any major HP, anywhere near the Azores...And, who wouldn't relish the chance of whipping-out the barbie, one more time!:hi:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

PS: There's no need to tell me that I'm exaggerating!:oldgood:

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GFS 10 day mean says no to the ECM Op, similar to the ECM mean. I think we can safely say the by day 10 there will be HP to our NE, but unfortunately we DEFINITELY can’t say that means a big freeze. But one thing is for sure, we are in a very good place compared to the possible wet zonal relentless crap from the West!! 

92A1FC25-D56B-4BEC-A051-BF198AB8CEAA.png
 

By day 12 I see a little retrogression in the mean, that’s a good thing you’d think.

0DFEA3F2-7E61-4FDB-8468-B5E713E18C1A.png
 

We could end up with a Greeny Scandy ridge, awesome if we haven’t got LP near us, the Perbs don’t actually look great with regards 850s so May answer that!! 🙄
 

One thing that does look promising is a blocky NH later Nov and prob into Dec , the Zonal winds really do hit the brakes this month according to the GEFS.

12BC6DE5-E051-4780-8768-092A24800C61.png

AAC48B11-0A73-4842-B76F-674ED254DAB8.png

Edited by Ali1977

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Is there a thread that gives a dumbed down summary of these charts?

This charts shows it will snow next Tuesday over Yorkshire for example?

Thanks

 

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Just a quick reminder that this morning's GFS 0z op run was not the only run that went very cold in its ensemble suite.

Pretty sure the 06z will have some very cold options again as well.

Of course they could all be totally wrong but at least it keeps this thread buzzing which is great to see.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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Sorry for posting lots of charts but here’s another that I interests me. The de-bilt ENS have shown nothing cold in FI, but the latest run does seem to have a little cluster braking off and going v cold. This is a good way to see what the ECMWF ENS are showing if you haven’t got access. 

A41D2E85-B017-4D3C-9D14-C6431A995CF1.png

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If cold and blocked is your thing, there's some interest on the longer term GEFS 6z from scandi height rises..hope support grows!!!👍

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Not the greatest set of 06Zs...but, hey, it's still early doors?:oldgrin:

t850Leicestershire.png   prmslLeicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

And, as our Heavenly Father has taught us, we can bin it anyway!😇

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EC clusters continue to show great potential for NE blocking for the end of the month.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019111100_300.

but probably predicting a NE ridge / SW trough, leading to a flow from SE Europe, and not quite cold enough for widespread snow yet. Studying the individual members, by far the largest grouping of runs has a Scandi/Russian High rather than a pure Scandi High, and a very deep trough to the SW. 

Cold flooding remains the potential headline. If it had been mid-January, would be serious snow interest. Just too early. Needs a NE flow, not a SE flow, at the moment.

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50 minutes ago, maxmax said:

Is there a thread that gives a dumbed down summary of these charts?

This charts shows it will snow next Tuesday over Yorkshire for example?

Thanks

 

Eh up.i wouldn't get hung up on any charts past 48 hrs in regard to snowfall.your best bet is your local weather.gfs etc arnt that great with snow forecasts.if you live at altitude then that helps.the position of fronts etc will change within 24 hrs.

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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

EC clusters continue to show great potential for NE blocking for the end of the month.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019111100_300.

but probably predicting a NE ridge / SW trough, leading to a flow from SE Europe, and not quite cold enough for widespread snow yet. Studying the individual members, by far the largest grouping of runs has a Scandi/Russian High rather than a pure Scandi High, and a very deep trough to the SW. 

Cold flooding remains the potential headline. If it had been mid-January, would be serious snow interest. Just too early. Needs a NE flow, not a SE flow, at the moment.

😟😟Like the blocking Men but the saturation levels here are shocking!!!

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