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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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19 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Yes Daz a tale tale story of last 6 decembers(winters) is perhaps this anomaly. You can copy paste that in to summer months more less since 2015.Honorable exceptions being Jan17,Feb18 thats it

dVzfF_v6mc.png

Not this summer.

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The scenario next week of the upstream Arctic plunge promoting quite intense ridging from the Atlantic subtropical high 'trapping' the UK trough is certainly not without interest, albeit the detail a long way from being sorted

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-3819200.thumb.png.e1b8b18274090eea951761c08d9815ba.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-3732800.thumb.png.8051333e12d0007c395b3dd0d91b7487.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-3819200.thumb.png.fb9be4df5fbac122b10068e73d0dfab6.png

180.thumb.png.9f4d6b2a8b7de1e5d6705a9c43a4a749.pngecmwf-deterministic-eur-t850_anom_stream-3819200.thumb.png.e608835bc39ec0d35b8813134f1697dd.png

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36 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not this summer.

Not that pronounced this year but it's true for CE. We had the warmest summer on record (beating Summer 2018).

rcc_eude_eur_ppp_8110_2019_14.png

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40 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not this summer.

more less the same outcome for central Europe,WAA in to continent and above average temperatures,sometimes including UK sometimes not but general theme similar

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Just now, daz_4 said:

Not that pronounced this year but it's true for CE. We had the warmest summer on record (beating Summer 2018).

rcc_eude_eur_ppp_8110_2019_14.png

Yes, but pattern was a flip compared to your analog. Higher pressure towards Greenland and lower over western Europe. 

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Net-wx SR model showing the rain/sleet poss snow at elevation to effect Wales/Midlands South tomorrow.

1565449974_viewimage(81).thumb.png.44b353b866d6d94132013d7c48cd018a.png1399845846_viewimage(82).thumb.png.70c1bac3adc67faca3b395ec619d7542.png

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4 minutes ago, jules216 said:

more less the same outcome for central Europe,WAA in to continent and above average temperatures,sometimes including UK sometimes not but general theme similar

Negative NAO summer, you posted a +NAO chart.

image.thumb.png.7dd77adf22be81d0fe6b421ef0250ebe.png

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That's a very impressive NH profile compared to the norm on the ECM 10 day chart.

Look at all that HLB over the Arctic surely all of Europe would be heading towards the freezer not too long after that,if that chart ever comes close to verifying.Well to my un-trained eye lol.

Be nice to hear from SM and his thoughts  he is a very knowledgeable poster and I would have thought he would be getting very excited at these type of charts ,but no posts from him, surprising when you look at what's been shown on the models.

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Another cold set of model runs this morning!!ecm is an improvement aswell!!lack of posts got me thinking we have reverted back to standard zonal south westerlies lol!!

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22 minutes ago, jules216 said:

more less the same outcome for central Europe,WAA in to continent and above average temperatures,sometimes including UK sometimes not but general theme similar

Forget about summer lets concentrate on winter:santa-emoji::cold-emoji:

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The GEFS 0z mean indicates a generally cold and unsettled / cyclonic outlook, coldest further north and there's snow expected across northern hills but perhaps some at lower levels too, especially further north, also overnight frosts and icy patches, even some freezing fog...and it's still autumn...oooh la la!!👍🤡😜

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looks interesting this morning...

image.thumb.png.c9d99d6b2f9364e4bc4429bccc9827a1.png

Yes , similar to what GFS showing for next week. Not quite Omega Block, as the Atlantic Ridge needs to be a bit more acute and a little further east.  However,lots of interesting developments to come , I think.

C

gh500_20191108_00_180.jpg

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14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Negative NAO summer, you posted a +NAO chart.

image.thumb.png.7dd77adf22be81d0fe6b421ef0250ebe.png

The chart was for Decembers 2013-2018. Now regarding summer months, -NAO actually correlates well with above average temperatures in central Europe,examples being 2015 and 2019 summers. That is because Atlantic through can stall south of Greenland where high pressure sits, causing -NAO but still advects WAA in to central Europe. See chart above. I sometimes don't understand why everyone is so much hang up on HLB and NAO particularly and don't focus on what is happening eastwards. This November is a great example, to me it screams wasted synoptics. Rarely you find notable cold spells,even some week long cold spells under higher heights in central/eastern Europe, as you will be relying on your own cold pool or a narrow strip perfectly aligned from Scandinavia which rarely happens. 

VMyiZqCJQ1.png

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The EC day 10 temp deviation chart is quite eye opening..

image.thumb.png.946cedccaecbe275053a2d0dedf3683e.png

Edited by northwestsnow

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18 minutes ago, jules216 said:

The chart was for Decembers 2013-2018. Now regarding summer months, -NAO actually correlates well with above average temperatures in central Europe,examples being 2015 and 2019 summers. That is because Atlantic through can stall south of Greenland where high pressure sits, causing -NAO but still advects WAA in to central Europe. See chart above. I sometimes don't understand why everyone is so much hang up on HLB and NAO particularly and don't focus on what is happening eastwards. This November is a great example, to me it screams wasted synoptics. Rarely you find notable cold spells,even some week long cold spells under higher heights in central/eastern Europe, as you will be relying on your own cold pool or a narrow strip perfectly aligned from Scandinavia which rarely happens. 

VMyiZqCJQ1.png

Not hung up on indices myself - just pointing out that the pressure pattern, totally different IMO, to me ultimately the only index that really counts is +ve snowfall anomalies.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Nothing constructive to add to last evening's comments

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4380800.thumb.png.463d2ab5d509b18161e3c2f4dcb74a97.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t850_anom_5day-4380800.thumb.png.fd1d5f54d87cfe4245c02a26aadf8765.png

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Snowfall over the Lake states on the preceding front with Stratospheric air down to around 600mb

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-pres_2pvu-3516800.thumb.png.762abdf800dbd8f7c19ef11e614fa65c.png

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I don't usually like analogues, but has anyone got any idea of what a possible comparable could be for this omnipresent high pressure affecting eastern and central europe and nudging up into scandi. It isn't a classic euro high or even really a sceuro as some folk here like to use at times. What has followed on from such a pattern in the past? Will it be of assistance in keeping the vortex disrupted, help with a strat warming or have other interesting results further down the line. Would love to hear ideas.

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1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

FAX looks a bit wrong for tomorrow? looks like a dry day here

fax36s.gif

Bit odd. That chart would seem to go generally against what the Met Office text summary mentions tomorrow for the West Midlands. Have a feeling the rain (possibly sleet), will likely reach our areas. But does still seem to be a little bit of uncertainty tomorrow still regarding the Eastwards progression of tomorrow’s rain (possibly sleet, but might be mostly for high ground). Would be happy if it stayed dry, though, especially if the rain wasn’t wintry at all lol 😕🙂

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Perhaps it is worthwhile considering the structure and movement of the front subsequent to midday as the energy struggles against the block. There are going to be some fine margins that probably wont be resolved much prior to real time

925wind_d02_39.thumb.png.eec74a5550f3d4e24c02da2911b424c2.png925wind_d02_42.thumb.png.288497cd006915f2cab6111821d94ce5.png

 

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29 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I don't usually like analogues, but has anyone got any idea of what a possible comparable could be for this omnipresent high pressure affecting eastern and central europe and nudging up into scandi. It isn't a classic euro high or even really a sceuro as some folk here like to use at times. What has followed on from such a pattern in the past? Will it be of assistance in keeping the vortex disrupted, help with a strat warming or have other interesting results further down the line. Would love to hear ideas.

@Seasonality since millennium the most similar match for current November progression more less were years 2000,2002,2008,2009,2012,2014,2018, see anomaly that quite fairly represents what is being forecast for next 2 or 3 weeks. Now scroll forward to anomaly in subsequent winters - bingo! Almost too good to be true. Uncanny similarity to @knocker day 8-14 anomaly posted above.

mean of novembers.png

subsequent winters.png

Edited by jules216

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2 minutes ago, jules216 said:

@Seasonality since millennium the most similar match for current November progression more less were years 2000,2002,2008,2009,2012,2014,2018, see anomaly that quite fairly represents what is being forecast for next 2 or 3 weeks. Now scroll forward to anomaly in subsequent winters - bingo! Almost too good to be true. 

mean of novembers.png

subsequent winters.png

Wow that’s interesting ,so could be something mega brewing then for a change,if this pattern can persist 

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