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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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AO - little sign of anything positive though any consequence of the upcoming SPV strengthening would be second half November into Dec 

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The GFS 00Z Operational at T+384 is as good a caveat as you'll ever see (DO NOT TAKE ME SERIOUSLY!) IMO -- though, it's not impossible that WAA will end-up just where we don't need it, as there's still plenty of warm air, down there? 🤔

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

And, though the GEFS pressure ensemble shows quite a lot of spread/scatter, that scatter need not be reflected in temps -- at least, not at this rather nondescript time-of-year?

prmslLeicestershire.png    t850Leicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png    prcpLeicestershire.png

More runs needed?:oldgood:

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9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

AO - little sign of anything positive though any consequence of the upcoming SPV strengthening would be second half November into Dec 

I'm beginning to feel we will see  the jet moving north longer term blue.

Infact, a strong +NAO ls my call for mid Nov onwards,however, events in the strat could be the joker in the pack over the coming weeks .. (wave 2 ).

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14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

AO - little sign of anything positive though any consequence of the upcoming SPV strengthening would be second half November into Dec 

That's as maybe at the moment but prior to that, the EPS with a slightly negative AO is indicating a pretty active TPV northern Canada  and strong westerly upper flow.

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4 minutes ago, knocker said:

That's as maybe at the moment but prior to that, the EPS with a slightly negative AO is indicating a pretty active TPV northern Canada  and strong westerly upper flow.

Difficult to argue with that Knocker.

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15 minutes ago, knocker said:

That's as maybe at the moment but prior to that, the EPS with a slightly negative AO is indicating a pretty active TPV northern Canada  and strong westerly upper flow.

Aye but the westerly flow isn’t really making it to this side of the Atlantic on a sw/ne axis as might be expected  .........a strong upper flow headed to this side of the Atlantic is a decent ingredient for the type of weather most coldies dream about with blocks/wedges in the right place .......

I digress ....

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Aye but the westerly flow isn’t really making it to this side of the Atlantic on a sw/ne axis as might be expected  .........a strong upper flow headed to this side of the Atlantic is a decent ingredient for the type of weather most coldies dream about with blocks/wedges in the right place .......

I digress ....

Again, this seems to be a fair represenation Blue...

The wedges are there in the GIN and are directing the traffic away from Scandy.

My thoughts are for this to remain the case but eventually the jet will lift north , everything pointing to a +NAO mid Nov onwards, for how long is the question..

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

My usual date for *potential* wintry weather over the whole of the UK is Nov 15 - That is the 'window'

The 06z screams potential some localised wintry weather despite being out if the window seeing as the source airmass has been below normal- 
 

What an amazing chart.

B3CE03CC-01D8-4410-9B9D-06B6C242A9D7.thumb.jpeg.c28483f92dc170a618efdbd7f1900f08.jpeg

At least it dont look like the ecm at the same time!!much more undercutting on gfs!!

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

My usual date for *potential* wintry weather over the whole of the UK is Nov 15 - That is the 'window'

The 06z screams potential some localised wintry weather despite being out if the window seeing as the source airmass has been below normal- 
 

What an amazing chart.

B3CE03CC-01D8-4410-9B9D-06B6C242A9D7.thumb.jpeg.c28483f92dc170a618efdbd7f1900f08.jpeg

I agree Steve...

Late Nov to Late Jan is my preferred zone, the shorter days/weak sun being critical.

6z rolling.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Low level snow showers into Eastern Britain.

image.thumb.png.a5ad69382b8b1175afd17c0b996ddca0.png

Yes, GFS 6z is lovely for coldies..

Wedges make sledges..

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Something is brewing this year I feel.I remember mentioning a few weeks back the very cold weather over Northern Scandinavia for the time of year,and how in recent years even up their the autumn season had been very mild until this year,

Well fast forward a few weeks and the cold up their seems to be intensifying,and no sign of a change,,if we get the winds coming from that direction then it will be colder than normal here too,something like the 06z😁

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

North Pole going green !

AO implosion imminent ....

DF2337D0-A7B7-4B86-B014-82D080AF5E88.thumb.png.3573eab82b9586e0ffdc9a8552612318.png

Lovely run...

Can we buy into it though Steve...?

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2 hours ago, knocker said:

France getting a dose this morning

 

Good cause that what I got when I went there😩🤣

 

 

not a bad 10 day chart👍

A22EA677-DA0A-4E5A-BAD8-A841E914AA3B.png

Edited by That ECM

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12 minutes ago, shaky said:

At least it dont look like the ecm at the same time!!much more undercutting on gfs!!

Come to that nor the previous two gfs runs. Oh my god

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This is consistent low pressure diving south of UK it would be lovely keep this pattern going in to winter proper..

1D38CDF4-149A-488A-AE58-E0AE7F85EE27.png

Edited by abbie123

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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thames and Humber streamers lining up galore.

image.thumb.png.a8b704f39b249ec2cff1dfaed5848012.png

Agreed. If it comes off...? I'd expect the North Sea SSTs to be too high for snow near the East Coast...But then, higher SSTs mean higher cloud-tops?:oldgood:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

Agreed. If it comes off...? I'd expect the North Sea SSTs to be too high for snow near the East Coast...But then, higher SSTs mean higher cloud-tops?:oldgood:

 

Yes - remember sometimes in February even -10c or -12c isn't enough, as the air is too dry, unless you have the deep blues in the 500mb heights denoting steep mid level lapse rates, but in November 30th 2010 (or around that time) - the uppers were only around -10c and i got 6 inches of snow in 2 and a half hours. of course the risk this early isn't lack of PPN, again particularly if you have that profile on my first chart with the 520(ish) heights, its obviously marginality that could be the problem.

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