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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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Cs and Ac pretty rapidly invading the sky down here at the moment

meteosat-msg_naturalenhncd_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.thumb.jpg.e6b4148fcc218f48ac59334a0b2eaf58.jpg

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27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Now the GEFS are bowloakesed now the op is back to normal.

rather have data feed  issues now than Dec/jan !

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

rather have data feed  issues now than Dec/jan !

Well there’s always the lack of balloon data issue at Christmas 😉 

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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure on your point, not stressing at all, just pointing out that the runs are irregular at the moment. 

My apologies Feb, I thought you was saying the op was bad, and the ensembles would be rubbish because of it... Dohhh, when now I realise you meant there was update issues... Sorry mate 👍

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The way I'm seeing things, the biggest (to mix metaphors) elephant-in-the-ointment is the presence of, with not much more than two-weeks until the start of meteorological winter, 20C+ uppers anywhere on the charts...?:unsure2:

image.thumb.png.dc28bf6cb9a444e796e1cb993832a555.png   h850t850eu.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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In a way, while some models seem to sorta push some stronger areas of Low Pressure through over, or to the North of the UK next week onwards (some exceptions like the 00Z GEM which still get Low Pressure South of the UK into mainland Europe), the source of the air generally looks to be from the North-West with frequent Polar Maritime shots. So probably staying cool.
 

In terms of very cold conditions, the models might not be the best. (I suppose hardly anyone was really expecting there to be any really deep, cold, conditions considering the time of year we’re in (though there’s nothing wrong getting excited by the idea of it). It would take quite an exceptional setup to see freezing and snowy conditions. But it’s certainly not unfeasible). I feel the models could be a lot worse - they still show a fair amount of blocking to the North-East with Low Pressure from the West/North-West in the Atlantic showing a fair amount of disruption with more of a North-West to South-East track, maybe at times West to East, rather than a South-West to North-East track. Despite again, the Atlantic and its army of Lows possessing a bit more power this morning.
 

The Polar Vortex in the troposphere level looks rather beaten up, some of it probably helped by some of the blocking the models continue to show to our North-East over/near the Russia area. No super powerful blue and purple demon over Canada or Greenland. At least not yet. However, further models runs could still change this as it can’t be ruled out that the Vortex over that area may be being under-estimated a bit. Always possible that blocking to our North or North-East could lose a lot of its strength and/or get pushed aside too far East for the cold weather enthusiasts to benefit. A difficult achievement to be honest to get Northern blocking constantly throughout the whole of Winter. Not that it can’t happen at all, although you’d probably have better luck winning a Marathon with your eyes closed, while running backwards. 
 

I think it can be easy, at least for some of us, including myself, to get sucked into all the dreamy charts the models show deep into there runs and end up focusing too much on what they show. Kinda like what I’ve done just here (🙈). Then end up getting disappointed when they suddenly become less encouraging for the certain weather type we’re after. Even though the general, overall, pattern is the more important rather than the more specific features.
 

At least for the next few days it looks chilly, especially towards Northern UK, and unsettled with a string of Lows to our North-West in the Atlantic tracking South-East against the modest heights to our North. And some of these getting into mainland Europe, while filling out, bringing a mixture of rain, showers - some of which could fall as sleet or snow over high ground to our North, and perhaps to some lower levels. But mostly high-ground. It’s a pattern that may very well continue over the next 2 weeks or so, depending how the weather patterns continue to shape up. It is also possible the Atlantic could show more of it’s fury. 🐯

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So the GFS continues with the turn to more deeper areas of low pressure crossing the UK next week on a more northerly track although still wettest for southern UK and beyond with less blocking and eventually showing high pressure to reside back to central southern Europe this is a while away though.. 

636762631_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_156(1).thumb.jpg.264ad6cf056c186b449defbf62dacf9c.jpg

1878122308_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_186(1).thumb.jpg.9bf62f4493b4bd180c9a05265a05e5c0.jpg

87058909_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_240(2).thumb.jpg.2d33d39853ff8757e13dd85a1099a11f.jpg

1758151691_EUROPE_PRMSL_204(1).thumb.jpg.b4cf6084b8948231ec157301954500b7.jpg

1591784173_EUROPE_PRMSL_324(2).thumb.jpg.728a8f33f2f4be2a90270822cf514ae4.jpg

Gem seems to continue showing a more wintry outlook.. 

772374514_EUROPE_PRMSL_SNOWACCUM_240(1).thumb.jpg.99b7ffa7602accf283d77f72fa445779.jpg

GFS ensembles still looking unsettled temps going back towards average? 

741893525_ens_image(22).thumb.png.e653de789f6dc4c4aa0304f862907535.png

10 day accumulated GFS chart.. 

65471926_precipaccum10dayukhd(9).thumb.png.f2d3afd4d19b78f6b333e0443dfc1378.png

Back to now the rain tonight seems to be a bit of a headache the Arpege wants to push this frontal system in and stall it across the east Midlands central southern parts of England and particularly Southern parts of East anglia for much of the day tomorrow clocking up some impressive rainfall accumulations too.. 

794626666_00_24_ukpreciptype(1).thumb.png.8aefba3b00f45a193a57d5f2f2d3ff2b.png

00_28_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.996c76ff5b03d138b4ca11f270a87170.png

00_35_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.280b8d45f4fa556c08d349a4d27b6eed.png

00_40_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.add6c668a332969b38e788362d61a877.png

00_46_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.82d44dca2badb4a163829d2949bbb291.png

Arpege's rainfall accumulation..

00_54_ukprecipratec_acc.thumb.png.e42a63f494c7c8d0cc4e9b73fc95d283.png

Icon for example has the rain stalling in a similar place to the met offices yellow warning so for north Midlands close to or across northeast England.. 

1726533968_06_33_ukpreciptype(2).thumb.png.d6af62c73e20c5e48ea58ecb883041cc.png

06_36_ukprecipacc.thumb.png.54eff183f8fa0578d90c9c466adb4043.png

Have to wait and see how this develops but that is substantial disagreement between them two high resolution models but that's fairly typical with these slow moving sliding lows. 👍

Edited by jordan smith

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2 hours ago, carinthian said:

OK, got a bit of an up date from the team over here. They think the latest GFS run flattens the Atlantic ridge far to quickly at 144t and beyond. Certainly a flow NW to SE into much of NW Europe at this stage. Beyond that period their own model hints at a more sharper Mid Atlantic ridging than being shown by GFS and lesser so by the ECM. Also discussed the demise of the Scandinavian heights previous shown on the shorter to medium term models. They think the forecast models are in a volatile state presently and over the coming days with rapid changes in the atmospheric dynamics likely to occur. So flips in the models more than likely but generally the feeling is for a rather cold and unsettled period for most  , especially in NW Europe/ British Isles. 

I enjoy your updates C but why do a full copy and paste of your last one. Link to it it if you feel it necessary but can you imagine if we all did this?

Thanks

 

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

The way I'm seeing things, the biggest (to mix metaphors) elephant-in-the-ointment is the presence of, with not much more than two-weeks until the start of meteorological winter, 20C+ uppers anywhere on the charts...?:unsure2:

image.thumb.png.dc28bf6cb9a444e796e1cb993832a555.png   h850t850eu.png

+8C 850hPa anomaly for Libya, so certainly well above average, but probably not all that unusual?

gfsnh-15-138.png?6

 

 

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The frontal wave, currently developing west of Ireland, will deepen and track east to be 988mb in the Irish Sea by 0600. and thus bringing all of the UK within it's circulation.

The first of the two occlusions associated with the low is already bringing patchy rain th much of the country but, and more importantly, The second occlusion, with a more intense band of rain, is already creeping into the south west and this will swing north east through this evening and overnight within the aforementioned circulation and start to come to a halt across north England by the morning Behind the front frequent squally showers will sweep into Wales and the south west with odd clap of thunder

PPVA89.thumb.gif.62d4a08b06e03d3a160291314bc2f425.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.1a78414e9fe0d6c72c2cd665c7058582.gifprecip_d02_12.thumb.png.6a3767bbb395d87272f05aaacf69e0a0.pngprecip_d02_15.thumb.png.b2f446f7fcdb0d8e0b14b1f33ed6567c.pngprecip_d02_18.thumb.png.852665d2e71b43cab157876089abbeaa.pngprecip_d02_21.thumb.png.63457c1a2f41ef21fe54605e73cfaed7.pngprecip_d02_26.thumb.png.9affb9a70313a6f3934775f5827eb4cc.png

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I think this set of 12z runs is quite important.  Recent runs from the op models seem to have suggested a path to a milder evolution, but everything is still in the mix as far as I'm concerned.  GEFS  6z at T300 has all manner of trop vortex contortions:

gens_panel_mto4.png 

That is all good, but the higher resolution op runs will be significant.  The chance of an immediate cold period is, for me, anyway, of much lesser importance than the bigger picture of where the north hemisphere winter might start from on Dec 1st, which makes the state of both trop and strat vortex the main model output of interest just now.

Edited by Mike Poole

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Arpege now in agreement with the other models regarding the position of tomorrow's rain as expected. 

EUROPE_RAIN1_28.thumb.jpg.94f5e7707cabaee3bf88f3b3cc63f653.jpg

1275822347_EUROPE_RAIN1_32(1).thumb.jpg.3d6df2ee7cb622be789fa108a3ed77ef.jpg

 

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ICON 12z, at T180:

image.thumb.jpg.81b9bd682a8c4e23ceccb597fbc562c5.jpg

For comparison, the 0z at end of run:

image.thumb.jpg.3f98f240d9cd2cd6ac0b70b8c96b6922.jpg

Not too much to call between these (noting the 12 hr difference in time) but watching the run in full, the blocking elements were slower on this run, in place by the end, I don't think that much can be concluded, no score draw!, so on to the big three...

 

 

Edited by Mike Poole

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A period of moderate snow is being forecast by the ICON for northern areas on Saturday as a very slow moving weak front drifts into colder air sitting across the UK. Maybe a couple of cm across hillier areas. 

 image.thumb.png.405a1ca58b95b4e491740d7d4a9bf9da.png

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The icon 12z finish in good place going forward . No big pv lobe over Greenland and blocking all over the Place . 

1806B921-8EE8-4621-A0F7-99E65A886863.png

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7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The icon 12z finish in good place going forward . No big pv lobe over Greenland and blocking all over the Place . 

1806B921-8EE8-4621-A0F7-99E65A886863.png

If the GFS follows this and gets some blocking back this forum will be a happy place , great chart.

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And so the lack of amplification continues on gfs 12z at 96 hours!!!smaller and smaller wedge being forecasted!!

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21 minutes ago, shaky said:

And so the lack of amplification continues on gfs 12z at 96 hours!!!smaller and smaller wedge being forecasted!!

Indeed shaky, this was the worry, ICON slower with the blocking, and UKMO arguably even more so, although it only goes to T144 so difficult to extrapolate that.  I mentioned yesterday, crunch time was coming, maybe more slow car crash...and the concern that a coupling of strat and trop will follow, against that though is perhaps a pattern more conducive for a strat worming...

Edit: obviously I meant strat warming, but I'll leave it, the idea of a strat worming amuses me!  Maybe worms are the answer 🐛 yes, I know that is a caterpillar but you work with what is available!

Edited by Mike Poole

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The Arctic plunge over North America is really impressive and it peps up the jet

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-3560000.thumb.png.97ea7c95bfb45d385a21e85772246187.pnggfs-deterministic-namer-pres_2pvu-3560000.thumb.png.b556761e3d7871665abf8b3ae6f44eaa.pnggfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-3603200.thumb.png.1148a9016ecb55dc78e651261a8ddc18.png

Edited by knocker

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Yes the silence speaks volumes on the GFS 12z.anyway Tamara did mention that things were finally balanced going into November I think.very unsettled it is then and on the cool side,well until GFS throws out something totally different!😏

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PV weaker and further West in Canada by 204, could this allow WAA up towards Greeny as we go on?? 

781D44CB-A784-4200-847E-9B6435211530.jpeg

Edited by Ali1977

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25 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Indeed shaky, this was the worry, ICON slower with the blocking, and UKMO arguably even more so, although it only goes to T144 so difficult to extrapolate that.  I mentioned yesterday, crunch time was coming, maybe more slow car crash...and the concern that a coupling of strat and trop will follow, against that though is perhaps a pattern more conducive for a strat worming...

Edit: obviously I meant strat warming, but I'll leave it, the idea of a strat worming amuses me!  Maybe worms are the answer 🐛 yes, I know that is a caterpillar but you work with what is available!

I'm calling it strat worming now great invention you could say the warming worms itself down the stratosphere. 🐛😜:oldgood:

Edited by jordan smith

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GFS T240:

image.thumb.jpg.37d196e2bdbd67de9b069a881b470175.jpg

And the strengthening of such an Arctic high is an interesting feature,  still wonder if a passage through via Greenland to ridge to that might happen later on in the run?

Edited by Mike Poole

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