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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

GFS op is an improvement on the 12z..colder uppers by day 8/9/10..

Hopefully a trend continued in the morning..

Say it again but 00z s always seem to be a downer for cold. Weird! Yes i know it sounds ridiculous,just how it feels...

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS op is an improvement on the 12z..colder uppers by day 8/9/10..

Hopefully a trend continued in the morning..

Yes slightly colder uppers as an area of low pressure rinses through and draws in colder air afterwards but it'd only last a day or so and they aren't super cold.. then again let's see what the rest of the run towards +240 brings
image.thumb.png.0ae07bd63044c0f9af768111fec867f2.png
 

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The 18z is a mess but should i discard of it because it doesn't show what cold lovers want!,no but it doesn't tie in with the other models as in colder synoptic

i wont chew on any further because there is still a lot to be resolved. 

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9 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Say it again but 00z s always seem to be a downer for cold. Weird! Yes i know it sounds ridiculous,just how it feels...

Absolutely spot on mate!!!i mentioned it numerous times last year aswell and same thing is happening this year!!!bluearmy mentioned at the time that its a more psychological thing or something at the time!!maybe he will correct me if im wrong!!

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Best not ask about the latest ec46 .......

Consistent with the +NAO then!!

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Best not ask about the latest ec46 .......

I wasn't going to but now you mentioned it....

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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Best not ask about the latest ec46 .......

Does increase polar heights Early Jan & we lose Euro slug--

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ECM tonight is literally a rollercoaster ride,we get milder but the same trend seems to be carrying since a month ago now very unusual pattern for this length of time with on lows heading much further the south nearer the time.

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Panels ECMWF Europe 12Z

 

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For the short term Saturday looking very wet indeed for most of England and Wales with rain persisting for much of the day especially for southwest England and Wales with sunshine and showers following into the southeast later in the afternoon.

Gfs for 6am Saturday.. 👇

1142773512_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_36(1).thumb.jpg.71857f769a263196c59dd33611715bd3.jpg

12pm..👇

1799927040_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_42(4).thumb.jpg.9a129062f4cd0bbb3d87e8f79e576a1a.jpg

6pm..👇

289574008_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_48(2).thumb.jpg.daee7260fd931313b42d1bad5442ebf5.jpg

Will give another update tomorrow morning.🙂

Edited by jordan smith

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8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not keen on losing December to mild though, it's a prime winter month for me- longest nights and the Christmas run up. That and the fact I hate chasing cold through January, as every day that ticks by is a day of winter lost!

True but its the norm though, 2010 was an anomaly, i know you can get big snowfalls in December but usually they are marginal like 1990, rarely do we get a consistently blocked December.

Strat warming better again just when i thought it was going to fizzle out.

image.thumb.png.55e6f1e3610b16052d04f97f0d690845.png

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not keen on losing December to mild though, it's a prime winter month for me- longest nights and the Christmas run up. That and the fact I hate chasing cold through January, as every day that ticks by is a day of winter lost!

I think the hard part of feeling that way is that December isn't exactly 'meant' to be the month of the Winter .. its default pattern on average is so often not not associated with wintry conditions .. Jan and Feb and even March always the best months for cold potential for me.. !

Back to what we're in here for though - the GFS ensembles also show a clear cluster that are pulling in Northerly winds for a time later next week (as per ECM op) - but around half of them aren't as so interested -

So as today draws to a close it's very much up in the air as to what will happen.. my guess is something in between. We'll see what tomorrow brings..

 

Screenshot_7.png

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35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

True but its the norm though, 2010 was an anomaly, i know you can get big snowfalls in December but usually they are marginal like 1990, rarely do we get a consistently blocked December.

Strat warming better again just when i thought it was going to fizzle out.

image.thumb.png.55e6f1e3610b16052d04f97f0d690845.png

 

Yes it's the "lag effect" which I've mentioned before. It takes a long time for the northern hemisphere to cool down. Rarely do we get a properly cold December. And even more exceptional if it's like 2010. Often there's just not enough cold air to tap into even though it's pretty much the darkest month of the year with the Winter Solstice. Same with Summer - June is rarely the hottest month of the year despite having the longer days/stronger sun. It's usually July or even August. Again it's the lag effect. March is rarely a proper Spring month either in my eyes. We can still get snow & bitter cold like 2013 & 2018. Because the same as mentioned above. Takes a while for Spring to be sprung.

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Currently I'm just tracking the cluster trends for the first day of December on top of other longer term factors - I'm still of the opinion that the tropically induced blocked pattern will fade to something more mobile for the first half of December. However it's interesting to watch the developments for the turn of the month, and it is noticeable that the signal for positive pressure anomalies is growing, mostly to the NW

,ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019112112_228.thumb.png.96525c62bc60d329b97135162a4b695e.png

While others have correctly said that these plots need to be interpreted carefully, and a +NAO flow can be created even with anomalies like this, it remains an eye catching fact that residual heights over Greenland keep holding tight. For those of you who have nipped across the atlantic and read forecasts from the US you will have noticed how many analog forecasters have produced charts that suggest blocking in this area might be expected to be a feature. Analog forecasting is dangerous I think, especially now that our global climate is under heat induced stress - but it is interesting nevertheless and no one should be so arrogant as to exclude any particular methodology. And if cold is what you are after then nothing we are seeing at the moment should cause distress.

Wont be long before mid month and beyond comes into range of ensemble and cluster modelling - another 10 days or so and we will see what begins to emerge. +NAO and strong westerlies as per seasonal averaged modelling, or something more meridional and blocked? 

Edited by Catacol

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Better Atlantic/southern Greenland blocking and a cleanish sweep through of the UK with the lows does mean a bit more potency on the potential cold shot from the North on todays runs. The trend is for a set up like that to happen although just how far southwards any cold air gets is open to debate. 

Aslong as the lows remain on a more southerly track and less of a bowling ball type shape, then the UK should be on the colder side of the jet eventually. Will be interesting how the blocking across southern Greenland develops in the coming days and what impacts that may have on our weather. 

Short term, it does look quite dull and wet as has most of November een across England in particular. Given the outlook, I suspect sunshine levels will be below average quite widely. 

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Rather impressive ECM with snow quite widely across the northern half of the UK as the low moves into cold air

Su.thumb.png.64c224936a12590e2e0a8ccc0de4cc90.png

Decently cold ENS too, lets hope that trend continues on the overnight/morning runs.

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45 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Coldest suites yet.

image.thumb.png.918f1b3816c4c28209ddfbdd13774150.pngimage.thumb.png.146fa82b09d771a4f276f00e21402611.png

EC46 can show a Euro slug as much as it likes, the EC ens are trending colder every day..

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I have been watching this Model Output Discussion the last few weeks, and have seen a lot of back and fourth's with the outputs.   I am a firm believer that November-December 2010 was not a one off as we go forward in time.  The cold periods we had after this 100 year event really did support that one day we might see something similar, and without a doubt I think most people expect that this is the case, of which I am one of them.

Interestingly I just had a read through this, and pre that big cold spell was a lot of flooding.   Which is not too dissimilar to the pattern we have had recently.

 

Here's a chart for tomorrow night across the Nern Hemisphere.

image.thumb.png.c5f3d3c66067230eb049fa4f6beb8eaa.png

 

I note there are some minor differences between the two charts, but it's eerily similar (Although I'll stand corrected) but from the untrained eye - a weaker vortex, similar high pressure cell over Russia with zonality over the UK.

 

image.thumb.png.f346be26a41dbb9841b68cf9c96d08bc.png

 

The key difference for me is those Alaskan heights, buckling the jet and sending energy into Greenland. Something we don't really see until the 96th hour.  The pattern this November is a bit flatter, but I think there will be a way synoptically that we will get a Greenland High.

 

image.thumb.png.911d695d7c423e240cb726bef0c42aa2.png

ECM is onto something that the GFS isn't.   I can't understand why the struggle after 4-5 days.

image.thumb.png.9f849c66bfec4132e3387a0e6ed2361d.png

 

Anyway I look for the next couple of days, the building of heights into Greenland and the retrogression of the high across that area with WAA into Greenland, currently showing across the GFS, ECMWF and CFS models.

 

image.thumb.png.44b72a62b6fa6906f3a0f8debdb6c93c.png

Edited by Robbie Garrett

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Day 6 with the ICON, cracking start to the day.

78224982-66E7-4300-99A6-4FD4329334B7.png
 

GFS not the same unfortunately , heights not as strong in Greenland / Iceland area 

AAE084FF-28FB-46E7-92C8-148F9D1CF3CF.png

Edited by Ali1977

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

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UKMO 144...

And the 850s at 144

image.thumb.png.a805db3af6ac59c0365ab8a20d2b91cc.png

Here comes Winter!!

GFS not as good at 144 but look what’s coming at day 9/10, a second attempt that could be v good 

6380496D-A46C-4F98-8472-1A19FE659AA2.png

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GFS gonna end up best run of the season.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS gonna end up best run of the season.

Hello 1st of Dec, what a chart.

7FDF28B5-1336-4466-9CC6-AA55C11E46A1.png

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