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Lauren

Hurricane Pablo

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You can see Pablo on the sat and cloud top images.

888558110_h2.thumb.png.a440d35b43f11fc412a23f6b4069a5e2.png1362997044_h1.thumb.png.df2757ba14c63c8f5f91458e2bad04e4.png

 

 

image?type=visual&region=eu
EN.SAT24.COM

Weather Europe, Satellite Weather Europe, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in Europe - SAT24.com

 

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55 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

You can see Pablo on the sat and cloud top images.

888558110_h2.thumb.png.a440d35b43f11fc412a23f6b4069a5e2.png1362997044_h1.thumb.png.df2757ba14c63c8f5f91458e2bad04e4.png

 

 

image?type=visual&region=eu
EN.SAT24.COM

Weather Europe, Satellite Weather Europe, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in Europe - SAT24.com

 

Feels so weird seeing that eye so close to us, I feel like a full on tropical cyclone hitting the British Isles must be possible at this point. (excluding Debbie and faith as there's uncertainty to their tropical status) 

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"The intensification has occurred while Pablo is over sea surface temperatures of 19-20C" NHC discussion

 

 

pablohurricane.png

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Shipping forecast 

The general synopsis at midday: Low South Utsire 1003 losing its identity by midday Monday. Tropical storm pablo 170 miles southwest of Fitzroy, expected ex-pablo 130 miles northwest of Fitzroy 997 by same time      Issued at: 17:25 (UTC) on Sun 27 Oct 2019.

For the period 18:00 (UTC) on Sun 27 Oct 2019 to 18:00 (UTC) on Mon 28 Oct 2019. 

pablohurricawinds.png

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54 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

 

2710pablo.png

Are we nearing the point where we drop the line that hurricanes cannot reach the British Isles? That's two this year not far off, and even in silly cold waters. Something's changing. For sure, it must be a matter of years before Spain / Portugal get hit by a genuine cat 1 or 2 hurricane on the west coast. 

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14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Are we nearing the point where we drop the line that hurricanes cannot reach the British Isles? That's two this year not far off, and even in silly cold waters. Something's changing. For sure, it must be a matter of years before Spain / Portugal get hit by a genuine cat 1 or 2 hurricane on the west coast. 

This is what I was thinking. Surely at some point the conditions will have changed enough that Hurricanes will be a thing here.

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13 minutes ago, Catacol said:

 

Much to ponder in our global weather at present. Anyone with knowledge of hurricane formation got information on how a hurricane can be sustained over such relatively cool SSTs in the atlantic?

 

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From an earlier satellite shot

image.thumb.png.a041a07f0bcab1fd04133f0d47620a36.png

Recent satellite image

image.thumb.png.8a9a226aafe7df5c9da31910c2d1a8fe.png

Edited by Dorsetbred

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RIP Pablo. Blink and you missed it. Hung in well and strenghened briefly against the odds helped by cold air aloft. 

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Very rare beast and the idea of extremely cold upper air nullifying to some extent the sea temperature required is a new concept to me.  This will very probably mean some changes to data input at the main forecast centres.

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On 29/10/2019 at 12:18, johnholmes said:

Very rare beast and the idea of extremely cold upper air nullifying to some extent the sea temperature required is a new concept to me.  This will very probably mean some changes to data input at the main forecast centres.

Ultimately they are a function of high enough lapse rates to allow convection to drive the whole process. The combo of higher than average SST's and some very cold (relative) air aloft helps to really sharpen the lapse rates to the point where you'll get decent convection development and therefore drops the need for the temperatures at the surface to be as high as normal.

Its a similar process to what we get in the med at times with these hybrid storms, very cold air aloft with what would appear too cold SSTs on the face of it, but lapse rates still high enough for decent convection.

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