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November 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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14 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I believe there is a mild blip coming, maybe after 20th, but it’s coming.  Not despondent about that, as I’m not looking East but North for cold.  Have had so much to do LRF just way down the list.  But wet and continuing cold...mild to come then December.  The way Nov is going.....I’m hopeful for front loaded winter

 

BFTP

Yes Fred I too think a milder spell will come(it cant stay cold forever lol) after that... certainly more hopeful than many previous years.

Would still expect November CET to finish below average.

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Monthly Only one played this month, got it spot on. So well done to Don. Three others were 0.1c out, nn2013, Kirkcaldy Weather and Quicksilver1989. Seasonal A complete change of

EWP will finish on 137 or perhaps 138 mm, it was 137 mm to 29th and yesterday added only small amounts outside of Cornwall which had 10-20 mm falls. Either way, Feb1991Blizzard has the closest forecas

November confirmed as 6.2 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

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6 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Yes Fred I too think a milder spell will come(it cant stay cold forever lol) after that... certainly more hopeful than many previous years.

Would still expect November CET to finish below average.

Yes mate, Nov to finish below normal.  The mild blip will likely be a norm value blip, but what I’m anticipating is a rapid set up end of month to a PV displacement episode towards Scandi......and a very ‘northerly quadrant’ December.  Could be very interesting indeed...

 

BFTP 

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Sunny Sheffield down to 5.6C -3.5C below normal. Rainfall up to 133.8mm 168.5% of the monthly average. A new record for the wettest Autumn should be set during Thursday night.

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EWP was 64 mm after ten days, almost on pace to reach a record amount for November. About 3 mm likely added to the start of ten-day GFS projetion which has some 60-80 mm pockets in the Midlands and southwest but would say overall looks like 35-40 mm coming for EWP, then days 11 to 16 look wet and could add 30 mm. A further 10 mm could fall 29th-30th in the pattern indicated at end of the run. The grand total is 142-147 mm. 

CET continues to look quite low and could end up below 6. 

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Tomorrow looks like being a notably cold day especially in the north, with maxima struggling to get above 3-4 degrees in some places after a sharp frost. The running mean for Scotland must be significantly below average at the moment.

Models suggest the CET mean will continue to fall over the next few days, and would not be surprised to be in the 5's by this stage next week, low 6's at best.. longer term, models suggest temperatures nearer normal, which would probably allow for a slight rise, but at this range a finish in the 6's looks very probable, with a high chance of something in the 5's.. 

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Sunny Sheffield down to 5.4°C -3.4°C below normal, rainfall now at 159.2 mm 200.5% above the monthly average.

This is the wettest we've ever recorded since 1955.

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Mmm had expected perhaps the CET to be around 6.5 degrees, given we have had some very suppressed maxima in recent days over much of the CET zone and nights haven't been especially mild - mmm expect downward adjustments at month's end I think - possibly quite significant.. 

Looking ahead, CET values looks like returning close to normal in the days ahead, a little below at first, but then probably slightly above as we move through next week, helped by quite a bit of cloud cover at night rather than maxima, so we may on about the same value as today this time next week. Latter part of the month hard to call at this stage, a finish in the 6's still the best bet at mid-month point. 

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The EWP is probably around 90 mm now as it had reached 80 after 13th and yesterday had some generous amounts across central regions. That by the way would be 20 mm higher than the estimate from guidance on the 4th, as a rough guide to the accuracy of the GFS projections. So with that in mind, the current projection of about 30 mm over coming ten days might be conservative (it is a blend of 50-60 in southwest to 10-20 in northeast according to the ten-day accumulated rainfall graphic). Then the maps for days 11 to 15 (to end of month) look fairly wet also, maybe 30 mm in that interval for a grand total of at least 150 mm and possibly higher I will show the provisional excel file based on 165 mm which has some nice upward moves for anyone predicting more than 130 mm. 

Agreed that the CET looks likely to flatten out in the low to mid 6 range if this guidance proves accurate.

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5 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Agreed that the CET looks likely to flatten out in the low to mid 6 range if this guidance proves accurate.

6.2C could be a close call for me at this stage.

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On 15 November 2019 at 05:52, Weather-history said:

We are on the verge of overtaking autumn's 2012 rainfall total for England and Wales then making this autumn the wettest autumn  since 2002.

Wettest autumn  since 2000 is on the cards.

There we have it, Autumn 2019 is now the wettest Autumn since 2000 for England and Wales. 

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17 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, i was in Salford near Manchester City Centre for 09/10 and here for 10/11 but i wished it would have been reverse to be honest, both were great but Manchester was nearly as good as here in 2010-11 because there was just no marginality it was so brutally cold, where as there were lots of marginal events as well as bitter events in 09/10 and the snow had melted before the next lot in the City, where as here it just mounted up and up and up i have heard culminating in this.

 

I'm pretty suprised at that. I was in Morley for winter 2010 (so other side of the Pennines) at around 150-200m but i had snow on the ground for 30 days with a maximum depth of 29cm (both records for my lifetime). I'm surprised the west of the Pennines struggled (perhaps more sun). 

7 hours ago, Weather-history said:

There we have it, Autumn 2019 is now the wettest Autumn since 2000 for England and Wales. 

And remarkably still not at all what i would consider stormy. 

5 hours ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield down to 5.3°C that's -3.3°C below normal. Rainfall now acts 168.2 mm 211.8% of the monthly average.

 

The remarkable lack of warmth since early October has been stark round these parts. Minima have been nothing special (probably beaten in 2016 and even last year) but i don't ever recall a November where we are half way through and have not hit a 10C maxima yet (so far as i know). 

It reminds of me of winter 06 which while not notable for cold was notable for just how long we avoided any real warmth. 

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50 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

 

I'm pretty suprised at that. I was in Morley for winter 2010 (so other side of the Pennines) at around 150-200m but i had snow on the ground for 30 days with a maximum depth of 29cm (both records for my lifetime). I'm surprised the west of the Pennines struggled (perhaps more sun). 

 

What you have to remember is Manchester City Centre had 5-6 inches on the 5th Jan 2010 but that was the biggest fall in 30 years, the City is very poor altitude and sheltered by the rain shadow, which is why it is poor for snow compared to say Birmingham even though that is much further south, in Birmingham apart from a straight convective Northerly, technically any setup can deliver, where as you are limited with what setups can actually deliver in Manchester.

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21 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Is there anywhere that updates the daily EWP as per the CET series? Must be around 200% of the average for halfway through November?

This is the link for the updates:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/charts/charts.html

They are normally about a day behind so I go to the meteociel 24h rainfall map and add on an estimate from the previous day if the timing indicates that the previous day is not in the current total. 

I was coming in to post this anyway, the total so far is 89 mm to the 14th, and the map for the 24h rainfall on the 15th is fairly dry with perhaps 2 mm on average in the grid. 

Then the 10-day GFS rainfall projection looks to be around 30 mm to the 26th, and maps for the rest of the month show maybe 20 mm at least in a parade of Atlantic frontal events.

The grand total of all that would be 141 mm. In the past the GFS 10-day has proven to be somewhat conservative so I think my current provisional estimate of 165 mm in the attached preliminary version of scoring is still valid. If we fall a bit short, most of the scoring will stay relatively similar, you can probably estimate that unless you have a much lower forecast and the projection is horribly inflated, your relative scoring to the field will stay about the same anyway. 

I will edit this file in after I check on the current status of best combined forecast and add that to the new section (column CW in the file). 

Looks like coldest winter has a good combination for a CET around 6.8, would go towards davehsug if milder, or Blast from the Past if colder. 

 

EWP20182019NOV.xlsx

Edited by Roger J Smith
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50 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

This is the link for the updates:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/charts/charts.html

They are normally about a day behind so I go to the meteociel 24h rainfall map and add on an estimate from the previous day if the timing indicates that the previous day is not in the current total. 

I was coming in to post this anyway, the total so far is 89 mm to the 14th, and the map for the 24h rainfall on the 15th is fairly dry with perhaps 2 mm on average in the grid. 

Then the 10-day GFS rainfall projection looks to be around 30 mm to the 26th, and maps for the rest of the month show maybe 20 mm at least in a parade of Atlantic frontal events.

The grand total of all that would be 141 mm. In the past the GFS 10-day has proven to be somewhat conservative so I think my current provisional estimate of 165 mm in the attached preliminary version of scoring is still valid. If we fall a bit short, most of the scoring will stay relatively similar, you can probably estimate that unless you have a much lower forecast and the projection is horribly inflated, your relative scoring to the field will stay about the same anyway. 

I will edit this file in after I check on the current status of best combined forecast and add that to the new section (column CV in the file). 

Great link Roger, thanks for that ?

Hope all is well ?

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