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Roger J Smith

November 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

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__________________ _ _ _ 

This month is the final stage of the 2018-19 competition year. CET November historical information in part 1 below, EWP in part two. Good luck !!

 

C.E.T. forecast competition -- averages and extremes for November

15.4 ... warmest day (5th, 1938)
14.4 ... warmest day in second half (22nd, 1947)

10.1 ... warmest Nov 1994

 9.6 ... second warmest Nov 2011
 9.5 ... tied third warmest Nov 1818 and 2015
 9.4 ... fifth warmest Nov 1938
 9.3 ... sixth warmest Nov 1743

 9.2 ... seventh warmest Nov 1730

 9.1 ... eighth warmest Nov 1817

 8.9 ... ninth warmest Nov 1881 

 8.7 ... tied tenth warmest Nov 1939 and 2009

 8.6 ... tied 12th warmest Nov 2014 (with 1821)

 8.5 ... ... ... ... 2002

 8.4 ... ... ... ... 1997

 8.3 ... ... ... ... 2018

 8.2 ... ... ... ...

 8.1 ... ... ... ... 2003, 2006

 8.0 ... ... ... ... 1982, 1984

 7.9 ... ... ... ... 1999 

 7.8 ... ... ... ... 1981, 1986

 7.7 ... ... ... ... 1995, 2004

 7.6 ... ... ... ...

 7.5 ... ... ... ... 1983, 2001  ,.. ... ... ---- average of 2001-2018 ---- ... --- average of past ten Novembers ---

 7.4 ... ... ... ... 1992 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1991-2018 ---- ...  ---- average of 1989-2018 ----

 7.3 ... ... ... ... 2007 ... ... ... ... ......

 7.2 ... ... ... ... 

 7.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. ---- average of 1981-2010 ----

 7.0 ... ... ... ... 2000, 2008

 6.9 ... ... ... ... 1990 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1971-2000 ----

 6.8 ... ... ... ... 1991, 2012, 2017

 6.7 ... ... ... ...

 6.6 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ......  ---- average of 1961-1990 ----

 6.5 ... ... ... ... 1987 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1901-2000 ----

 6.4 ... ... ... ...

 6.3 ... ... ... ...

 6.2 ... ... ... ... 1989, 1998, 2005, 2013

 6.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- average of all years 1659-2018 ---- (6.08)

 6.0 ... ... ... ...

 5.9 ... ... ... ... 1996 ... ... ... ......  ---- average of 1801-1900 ----

 5.8 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ......   ---- average of 1701-1800 ----

 5.6 ... ... ... ... 2016 ... ... ...... ...  ---- average of 1659-1700 ----

 5,2 .... coldest since 1993 were  1988, 2010 (tied 90th coldest)

 4.6 .... coldest since 1985 was 1993 (tied 52nd coldest)

 4.1 .... coldest in recent years (tied 28th overall) 1985

 3.3 .... tied eighth coldest 1740, 1746, 1786, 1919, 1923

 3.2 .... tied sixth coldest 1862 with 1910

 3.1 .... fifth coldest Nov 1851

 3.0 .... fourth coldest Nov 1684
 2.9 .... third coldest Nov 1807
 2.8 .... second coldest Nov 1915
 2.3 .... coldest Nov 1782

--0.6 ... earliest sub-zero mean (7th, 1791)

--2.1 ... coldest in first half (15th, 1965)
--4.6 ... coldest day (24th, 1904)
__________________________________________________
colour coded warmestaverage and coldest since 1981 -- due to ties, 13, 14 and 11 in these categories. 
daily records are for the period 1772 to 2018
monthly extreme values are for the period 1659 to 2018

Enter your CET forecast by Thursday, October 31st at midnight, or with increasing late penalties on the first three days of November.

===============================================================================

(2) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest -- November 2019

__ contest is scored using Hadley EWP data __

__ winter month snowfall is converted by liquid equivalent, roughly 10:1 reduction factor, e.g. 10 cm snow = 10 mm precip __

 

202.5 mm __ 1852 _ wettest 1766-2017 ... also second wettest month to Oct 1903

200.8 mm __ 1770 _ 2nd wettest ... also third wettest month overall

196.5 mm __ 1940 _ wettest of 20th century... 1929 had 195.9 mm

192.1 mm __ 2009 _ wettest since 1981

103.7 mm __ mean for 1989-2018 ... 

100.4 mm __ mean for 1981-2010

 93.8 mm __ mean for all data 1766-2018

 50.2 mm __ 1988 _ driest since 1981 

 23.1 mm ___1805 _  second driest 1766-2018

 17.0 mm ___1945 _ driest 1766-2018 

___________________________ ** __________________________

Recent November EWP  ... 10-year average is 111.4 mm ... :

2018 _ 104.9 ... ... 2017 _ 81.0 ... ... 2016 _ 116.6 ... ... 2015 _ 126.7 ... ... 2014 _ 126.8

2013 _ 79.2 ... ... 2012 _ 135.8 ... ... 2011 _ 52.9 ... ... 2010 _ 97.5 ... ... 2009 _ 192.1

>>> Enter your EWP forecast in mm with your CET forecast, same deadlines 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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6.7C and 105 mm please...ta

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14 hours ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

4.9c and 71mm

Hope you're right!

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Going for a quite mild month dominated by south westerlies.. but not particularly wet. Something cooler for the final week of the month.

7.9°C and 73.9mm please

Edited by CheesepuffScott

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A guess of 6.7*C and 42mm please.

Probably mostly High Pressure dominated with variable cool and mild days. Nights being chilly and misty with some frost at times. A gradual return of unsettled conditions from the West around 2 thirds into the month, perhaps preceded by snow over Northern high ground, but High Pressure quickly building back centred over Northern UK. Pressure maybe low enough to the South to bring in some light wintry showers from the East over South-Eastern areas at times. 

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I'll prog mine down to 6.9°C please but keep EWP at 73.9mm

Still think it'll be a mild month but cooler interludes bringing the avg down

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Rest in pieces miserable "autumn" 2019!  13C  :oldsad:  Last sub 3C November in 1915.  Last sub 4C November in 1925.  Last sub 5C November in 1993.  Last sub 6C November in 2016.

200mm of Atlantic garbage

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Exceptionally dry Novembers (EWP) are rare beasts and compared to other months they are not that exceptionally dry 

Top 10 driest Novembers' average: 31.9mm

Compared to the average of the other top 10 driest for the rest of the months

January: 19.8mm

February: 10.7mm

March: 12.4mm

April: 10.1mm

May: 16.4mm

June: 15.3mm

July: 20.1mm

August: 20.5mm

September: 16.5mm

October: 21.9mm

December: 20.2mm

Driest November is 1945 with 17.0mm and there have been 3 drier months this decade than this: April 2011, September 2014 and June 2018

 

Edited by Weather-history

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The map of Europe certainly has a very wintry look on the models at the moment. I’ll go for a an uncharacteristically early guess of 6.0°C.

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