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Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition


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That’s looks exciting.

1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

That’s sounds exciting.The 06 gfs ensembles had some really cold looking charts with the Siberian High taking control.

Might improve the mood in the model thread,as it’s all doom in their because the operationals threw out a less cold run.

 

Need to look at the bigger picture instead of taking each operational as gospel.Same thing happens every winter season though!

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Woke up this morning to the most recent charts showing a washout in the near term and possibly into the medium term too. And then visit the BBC website to see this on the homepage:

_109634537_073a0e52-43fa-44e5-bf14-3b598
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Several places experience record-breaking low temperatures as an Arctic air mass hits the country.

When's it going to be our turn!? ?

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20 minutes ago, Wynter said:

Woke up this morning to the most recent charts showing a washout in the near term and possibly into the medium term too. And then visit the BBC website to see this on the homepage:

_109634537_073a0e52-43fa-44e5-bf14-3b598
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Several places experience record-breaking low temperatures as an Arctic air mass hits the country.

When's it going to be our turn!? ?

If it’s any comfort, it’s transient for them 

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58 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s winter over then !

Well I bought some new winter walking boots 2 days ago & then right after that boom the end of the month is now looking not as cold. If I didn't buy any we'd be staring down the barrel of another November 2010. Might chuck them out. ?

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Using translator - "Western and Central Europe
In western Europe, winter is expected to be characterized by unstable weather when low pressures end up on a southern course mainly. This means that rain can be expected in rounds and that it can sometimes get windy in the area. This applies mainly to the British Isles, France, Northern Spain and Portugal and the Benelux.An occasional period of substantial cooling from the east may be relevant, especially during the latter part of winter. Such an outbreak of cold air may then also affect at least France and the British Isles."

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16 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Things are bubbling along nicely. Both Jan 79 and Feb 96 produced the goods...and the Euro must probably be most accurate in its handling of the pattern over the north atlantic in terms of wave 2 inspired distress for the vortex. It's been a really interesting November so far...

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15 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Given this map for Glosea's autumnal temp predictions I'd say there is work still to do on the model's ability to translate likely synoptic pattern into temperature anomaly.

3up_20190801_temp2m_months24_europe_prob_public.thumb.png.e276488a9f2f5fe332ad75618ab1f439.png

The 500hpa predictability charts identified the ongoing trough through the mid atlantic well enough, but failed to pick up the substantive Euro/SE Euro high. For an island such as ours these sorts of changes have massive ramifications. Frankly I continue to wonder with the Met even bother to release these charts. The bottom of the 3, in terms of predicting likely below average temps, is a wall of blue and frankly useless. Why lump together 3 months of calculations into a single chart? Are these useful to anybody at all??

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5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Things are bubbling along nicely. Both Jan 79 and Feb 96 produced the goods...and the Euro must probably be most accurate in its handling of the pattern over the north atlantic in terms of wave 2 inspired distress for the vortex. It's been a really interesting November so far...

Agreed, although I can't speak about either of those months as I was born in June 1996. Certainly has been a chilly November so far and plenty of interest with the stratosphere possibly heating up later Nov / Early December. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Agreed, although I can't speak about either of those months as I was born in June 1996. Certainly has been a chilly November so far and plenty of interest with the stratosphere possibly heating up later Nov / Early December. 

 

Ah - well - as this is a speculation thread we are allowed to wallow a bit! Jan 79 turned an essentially cyclonic signal early on

archives-1979-1-12-12-0.thumb.png.794d3ae5cdc54f6ffdd92dd4a4ead46a.png

into a very special high lat, reverse flow setup within a few days that pulled extremely cold air over the UK and is one of the great winter spells of the recentish past. 

archives-1979-1-18-12-0.thumb.png.7da1132d8229964aaf0e1d6c76df31a5.png

Feb 1996 was a little more "on the edge" - with another cyclonic starting point

 archives-1996-2-5-12-0.thumb.png.3962517bb4e1b7936bc00b6837df903c.png

leading to low pressures diving far south underneath a less impressive, but nonetheless stubborn block

archives-1996-2-8-0-0.thumb.png.30d58dc5e60421e90049b3c0195e6f51.png

Two great snow makers. I often think of the 1996 example as a case study in how we dont need the absolutely "perfect" synoptic to produce extensive snow. We are always on the edge when it comes to the rain/snow boundary - and we should always expect the best snow spells to come from cyclonic beginnings. The trouble with embedded high pressure is it dries everything out - so to have low pressure systems zipping around in the mix is crucial for snow. This is one of the things that excites me a bit for this coming season - we have plenty of low pressure in the mix according to the seasonals, but we also have suggestions of vortex stress and variability that could see - quite easily - a 1996 type scenario arrive. It lasted about 5 days but I'll never forget it. 

The fact that snow cover is high across the hemisphere, that ice has refrozen well, that the seasonals would appear to have underestimated the angle of the jet this autumn, and that the sun is weak and probably enhancing jet variability all adds weight to the idea that we have a decent chance at a significant cold spell this year. But we may have to be relatively patient....

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