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Model Output Discussion - early October


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Want to chat about the upcoming winter?
Please head to the winter speculation and chat thread.

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I’m back from my hibernation!  The time just flies , can’t believe we’re back to chasing those winter nirvana charts already . So anyway a warm welcome to newer members who have joined and h

Hi will keep this less detailed than normal feeling a bit shook after a car accident a few hours ago I'm glad to be alive and unhurt. Off topic I understand but we are like close friends on here and t

Morning- As @carinthian has highlighted the modelling of the low pressure is edging further south & East with each run- small increments allow for the cold to penetrate further south. It

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36 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Just didn’t quite align right and the really cold uppers just clip the north and get wasted at sea . 

7F6BA871-3417-4A14-95F0-B5DDF18719AF.png

4FB72CD8-2D9D-4B77-B268-FA9B07A7CEE8.png

We are certainly due a decent Northerly blast, can't remember the last time we had a direct hit from a straight Northerly with sleet/snow showers moving inland as opposed to the wishbone effect of a NWly/NNWly.

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some very tasty maps in fantasy world  if  might  be rain  loads  to  come of it  , but if this hangs arouned  for 4 weeks later anything  could  happen

icon-0-156.png

Edited by tinybill
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According to the gfs remaining changeable for the rest of the week, perhaps improving by the weekend, but certainly not with the unsettled intensity of the coming weekend. There will be periods of rain and showers as the odd system passes through, which may well be wintry over the high ground in the north and with temps below average some widespread frosty mornings are on the cards

A snapshot Thurs > Sat

thurs.thumb.png.ff5cda89a1129801a15ebc926bd73904.pngfrid.thumb.png.2b131d3553af660897f0b84d013a9a1d.png

sat.thumb.png.c1af471cf75cb29fc9ef428b74fec9ae.pnggfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_min6-3279200.thumb.png.57bef77ece4e873ab25f4abec6361d28.png

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No sign of any quieter weather as we enter November which i guess is no surprise as it is the time of year that we start to see the developing pv.

ECM mean 500 hPa charts for days 5 and 10 show plenty of mobility in the Atlantic heading our way.

EDH1-120.thumb.gif.46da758c3bf3d7ac14a27f7d0d8dc839.gif1792056441_EDH1-240(1).thumb.gif.92c932391035ead0ca2418fafb6ea3d2.gif

Quite sharp troughing showing at times over the eastern Atlantic and the UK with the jet heading on a nw-se trajectory later so some polar air getting into the mix with the chances of some snowfall over the Scottish highlands. 

Nothing out of the ordinary for late Autumn but a longer drier spell i am sure would be welcome after all the rain of the last few weeks but for now this looks unlikely.

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A nice anticyclone in place at the tail-end of the GFS 00Z...and still no sign of a rampant +NAO:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

The GEF Operational is still on the colder side of the ensembles, however:

prmslLeicestershire.png   t850Leicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

But, then again, so has the last few weeks' weather...?:oldgrin:

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Nice GFS 6z..

Looks cold as we head through next week...

image.thumb.png.8ad95bb984637868ebcda70520c8d7f1.png

Just about to say kid  wonderfull 6z  and not deep into fi either

image.thumb.png.aefa35696acafd5455d340e6e30141d0.png

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