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Paul

Model Output Discussion - early October

Paul

Want to chat about the upcoming winter?
Please head to the winter speculation and chat thread.

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It looks, on the surface at least, as if the cold to the NE is gaining some momentum...and what if that HP were to retrogress...? Too many building blocks need to fall into too many ideal places, methinks...?🤔

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

More runs needed?:shok:

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12 minutes ago, shaky said:

Aaaand gfs  moves towards ecm at 120 hours in regards to that shortwave!!ecm is king simple as!!

Majority of the time GFS will back down in a stand off m8.

Hopes of a settled cold bonfire weekend seem to be evaporating.

I did express my concern about this ruddy low in the Atlantic yesterday 😞

 

Edited by northwestsnow

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9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Majority of the time GFS will back down in a stand off m8.

Hopes of a settled cold bonfire weekend seem to be evaporating.

I did express my concern about this ruddy low in the Atlantic yesterday 😞

 

Standard stuff dude thats why ecm is THE model to watch 9 times out of 10!!ah well 3 or 4 cold nights will do for now!!then hopefully that low is not too deep and undercuts the icelandic high and voilaaaaaa even more colder than before!!could work in our favour!!

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Standard stuff dude thats why ecm is THE model to watch 9 times out of 10!!ah well 3 or 4 cold nights will do for now!!then hopefully that low is not too deep and undercuts the icelandic high and voilaaaaaa even more colder than before!!could work in our favour!!

GFS clears the low away for Bonfire weekend.Perhaps i was a bit hasty.As you say, a few clear colder days next week, then the low cuts across, hopefully it will clear off sharpish..

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FWIW GFS is not too bad as we see the High pressure across Europe removed.

I do hope next weekend is NOT a wash out, moreso for the kids who enjoy the bonfires/fireworks etc..

Edited by northwestsnow

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Do you not think guys there is a little over analysis going on here!! In weight training terms, it's called bro science.... Basically we're everything is made out to be to much of an exact science, and that only 1 outcome is possible or the correct way! Anything beyond a week is gonna keep the models guessing, they will keep throwing up minor and sometimes major detail changes, which does nothing but drive you round the bend in the long term.... There is an old saying... Get the cold in first, and just wait and see that follows! 😉One thing for sure its obvious ECM and GFS will spend most of the winter in disagreement! There are yet again a fair few cold ensembles from the 0z,and I would expect similar from the 6z....not so sure about the 6z though, it seems very much more prone to error like the 18s if you ask me. The 0z op was very cold, so it's sods law the 6z op will go down a different route!! One thing I have noticed is how many of these ensemble runs from GFS have cold pools to our East, and to our West!! Very much like last year, when we ended stuck in the middle with you!!... Nothing in other words!! So I'm just hoping that this new GFS does not start overplaying cold sypnotics again all winter...... Please don't send us down the garden path again.. 🤞

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gens-16-0-372.png

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graphe3_1000_255_92___.png

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31 minutes ago, shaky said:

Aaaand gfs  moves towards ecm at 120 hours in regards to that shortwave!!ecm is king simple as!!

It actually appears to be quite complicated.as the developing frontal wave gets reinvigorated by colder air dropping around the ridge. All very interesting but not to be believed given for starters, how different it is to the previous run and the ecm. not that the atlantic low is not playing a key role in the energy distribution

gfs-natl_wide-z300_speed-2501600.thumb.png.c4899d2b1fb9891a09c409daeda8df78.pnggfs-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-2501600.thumb.png.cf762fd311c99a69cf0711328eac06ad.png

144.thumb.png.fd94f96ac914b10ebc2347048bcf6eb0.png168.thumb.png.03bc82a11a151c12f1ef5ac23d46384e.png

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37 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Majority of the time GFS will back down in a stand off m8.

Hopes of a settled cold bonfire weekend seem to be evaporating.

I did express my concern about this ruddy low in the Atlantic yesterday 😞

 

And this has sadly happened in most cases GFS backs down and goes along the lines of the ECM 

As I said if the ECM is showing the cold charts you definitely have got a increased chance of it coming off 

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7 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

And this has sadly happened in most cases GFS backs down and goes along the lines of the ECM 

As I said if the ECM is showing the cold charts you definitely have got a increased chance of it coming off 

TBH, that sounds like a reiteration of the old NW adage, 'the GFS is always too progressive', in breaking down the current (or more often still umpteen days' in the future) cold spell...?🤔

Does the GFS produce an audible sigh, when in the process of 'backing down'?:oldgrin:

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The Ecm 0z ensemble mean is perhaps looking more unsettled longer term than was the case yesterday and it doesn't look particularly mild either. I just had a look at the GEFS 6z for the start of November and I'm pleased to say it's still hinting at a cold start to next month with an arctic or at least semi arctic air mass bringing widespread frosts and some wintry precipitation..including snow / snaw..and that's only a week away! 👍😉

EDM1-192.thumb.gif.bd1884edc4eea6f243174c5b49c80c35.gifEDM0-216.thumb.gif.88a76883ea7c4b740ae60c291a10ef9a.gifEDM1-216.thumb.gif.94c5651afeb4fa581776102c1d303b9f.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.195e84591dc1dda712f98d76d42da4eb.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.039498c3545e0a8abb5baff83b13ea00.gif21_168_850tmp.thumb.png.f8dc077b07b53fd5fec4f6ba0bf23727.png

 

Edited by JON SNOW

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14 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean is perhaps looking more unsettled longer term than was the case yesterday and it doesn't look particularly mild either. I just had a look at the GEFS 6z for the start of November and I'm pleased to say it's still hinting at a cold start to next month with an arctic or at least semi arctic air mass bringing widespread frosts and some wintry precipitation..including snow / snaw..and that's only a week away! 👍😉

EDM1-192.thumb.gif.bd1884edc4eea6f243174c5b49c80c35.gifEDM0-216.thumb.gif.88a76883ea7c4b740ae60c291a10ef9a.gifEDM1-216.thumb.gif.94c5651afeb4fa581776102c1d303b9f.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.195e84591dc1dda712f98d76d42da4eb.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.039498c3545e0a8abb5baff83b13ea00.gif21_168_850tmp.thumb.png.f8dc077b07b53fd5fec4f6ba0bf23727.png

 

Yes Karl, troughing looking likely to become dominant as we head into November.

image.thumb.png.934d3c715a0dcc4a354a988adc288468.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019102500_300.

Which ties in well with a rapidly re-strengthening PV, due to go well above the norm.

image.thumb.png.e6fd7fe1b952f204e9fd912f4e63ca7a.png

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19 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Yes Karl, troughing looking likely to become dominant as we head into November.

image.thumb.png.934d3c715a0dcc4a354a988adc288468.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019102500_300.

Which ties in well with a rapidly re-strengthening PV, due to go well above the norm.

image.thumb.png.e6fd7fe1b952f204e9fd912f4e63ca7a.png

The ace up our sleeve as it stands is the removal of Euro high pressure..

 

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Meanwhile, back in the Bat Cave, don't bother basing anything past 7 days' out, on the GEFS 06Zs, as they're all over the place...!? And, I suspect, the same will apply to the other models too...?🤔

prmslLeicestershire.png   t850Leicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

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22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The ace up our sleeve as it stands is the removal of Euro high pressure..

 

Well cluster 2.3 and 5 have Euro High development soon. Just wait when you get troughing near Ireland/UK which doesn´t clear eastwards quickly enough. Then you can set your alarm for 3 weeks time before seeing another attempt to get rid of this omnipresent Eurojunk,crap high 

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13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Meanwhile, back in the Bat Cave, don't bother basing anything past 7 days' out, on the GEFS 06Zs, as they're all over the place...!? And, I suspect, the same will apply to the other models too...?🤔

prmslLeicestershire.png   t850Leicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

absolutely alot for the models to deal with this season atm looking like a 2014 rerun.

although the tanked -ao might also be trowing alsorts of spanners in the models predictions.

 

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8 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

absolutely alot for the models to deal with this season atm looking like a 2014 rerun.

although the tanked -ao might also be trowing alsorts of spanners in the models predictions.

 

With the utmost of respect, I'm not convinced myself, 5 years on the models have undergone significant changes. I think many of the old sayings here about GFS vs ECM etc may have been right at some point in the past but have now taken on the character of old wives tales. Only hard data verification will show show the truth, and it's particularly so in the case of the GFS upgrade having it's first winter season as the OP. All bets off the table for now methinks. Going to be interesting regardless of the outcome.

Edited by Seasonality

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20191025_1219_sat_irbw_h.thumb.jpg.934724f9b7abb13d618ae51b22d10a13.jpggfs-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-2015600.thumb.png.4df4eefaa13d8323e12cbb9800cd679e.png12.thumb.gif.2502e51f7c60777250127e91a184b29c.gif

Edited by knocker

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25 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Well cluster 2.3 and 5 have Euro High development soon. Just wait when you get troughing near Ireland/UK which doesn´t clear eastwards quickly enough. Then you can set your alarm for 3 weeks time before seeing another attempt to get rid of this omnipresent Eurojunk,crap high 

Its entirely plausable we could see Euro heights down the line Jules.It looks like the Atlantic will move in next week 'under' the Mid Atlantic high,if we see enough movement into Europe then that should prevent a huge +NAO developing..i don't see this as the favoured outcome at this juncture.

Interesting few days coming up but i take the point about Euro heights, a ghastly setup and usually a precursor to an extended period of dross for much of Europe and the UK.

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its entirely plausable we could see Euro heights down the line Jules.It looks like the Atlantic will move in next week 'under' the Mid Atlantic high,if we see enough movement into Europe then that should prevent a huge +NAO developing..i don't see this as the favoured outcome at this juncture.

Interesting few days coming up but i take the point about Euro heights, a ghastly setup and usually a precursor to an extended period of dross for much of Europe and the UK.

I am concerned as this has been happening a lot in recent years, Halloween time is a sort of indicator weather atmosphere/troposphere can sustain disconnection from anomalous cooling of upper Stratosphere, in years like 2008,2012 and 2016 we actually had decent cold spells this time of year which precluded good spells of blocking later in winter,there were other times where models underestimated the strenght of zonality and promised HLB early despite cooling upper strat. for them to swing to zonal in November at 120hrs forecast period and left us waiting for SSW to salvage winter late.

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I think some are making the same old mistake of getting too far ahead of themselves in terms of trying to predict the outcome whereas as far as I'm concerned, alot of the output after 144 hours tends to be just noise and can vary from day to day. 

After today's rain the weather will be getting cooler and drier for a period of time. Hints we may see heights starting to lower over Greenland so let's see how that plays out in terms of the jet stream and what implications that has on our weather. 

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10 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I think some are making the same old mistake of getting too far ahead of themselves in terms of trying to predict the outcome whereas as far as I'm concerned, alot of the output after 144 hours tends to be just noise and can vary from day to day. 

After today's rain the weather will be getting cooler and drier for a period of time. Hints we may see heights starting to lower over Greenland so let's see how that plays out in terms of the jet stream and what implications that has on our weather. 

I don't disagree with anything you wrote GS...

Anything beyond 120 is speculation.I think Jules and myself are just discussing longer term, and in particular if the jet can dig far enough SE into Europe,which will have big implications down the line.

I suspect Jules and myself are long enough in the tooth to know the models can change direction at the drop of a hat, esp beyond 120 timeframe.

This is were the likes of GP,Tamara Steve Murr among others are gold dust for myself and many others.. 🙂

Edited by northwestsnow

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The midday Lerwick and Camborne soundings highlight the different airmasses

2019102512.03005.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.f8efd6eb334b216c35a855d37d2bac5b.gif2019102512.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.4e52f27d4de061212f9af97c1221a5ed.gif

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1 hour ago, jules216 said:

Well cluster 2.3 and 5 have Euro High development soon. Just wait when you get troughing near Ireland/UK which doesn´t clear eastwards quickly enough. Then you can set your alarm for 3 weeks time before seeing another attempt to get rid of this omnipresent Eurojunk,crap high 

Yes good points.also any low heights to the south can't be expected to last until winter and prevail.its five weeks away let's not forget!!!

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The 500 mb anomaly charts are now, all 3, moving away from the ridging of the previous 4-5 days, to more of a westerly flow with troughing starting to be more of a feature. This, to me though, is still not a done deal. Sufficient signal for heights for the outlook not to be all that clear yet.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

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11 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes good points.also any low heights to the south can't be expected to last until winter and prevail.its five weeks away let's not forget!!!

True enough.

From my perspective,a nice cold high in November would be preferred.

As JH has just posted, we seem to be moving away from this to a more cyclonic outlook.

The debate i was having is will this be a mild regime with euro heights or something cooler with the jet digging into Europe ..

Exter update suggests the latter, we will see..

 

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