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Paul

Model Output Discussion - early October

Paul

Want to chat about the upcoming winter?
Please head to the winter speculation and chat thread.

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Oops, sorry I didn't intend to leave it half an hour before opening this new thread!

As ever, please keep to discussing just the model output in this thread. If you're wanting comment on the upcoming winter, please head to the winter speculation thread:

For Autumn weather chat or to have a good moan or ramp, please use the Autumn thread. 

As seasonal winter forecasts start to come through (or if you're wanting to post your own), please head over to the seasonal forecast thread

Other assorted, useful / interesting threads:
Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch
Met Office forecasts
Snow and ice in the Northern hemisphere

Have a weather or meteorology question?
Head over to our brand new Q & A forum.

There are also loads of guides and learning info over in our nearly as new Learning and Research area.

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
UKV (Extra subscribers)
GFS
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met Office (UKMO)
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Model Comparison
Golbal Jetstream
Stratosphere

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image.thumb.png.fb399ce5aa5f3f61ea85bc076a328927.pngimage.thumb.png.09feb7936c0c67893c0cdf41836fc5c3.pngimage.thumb.png.ceae7351f03a7d8ad2c372e5309c0e40.pngimage.thumb.png.50f9219f1bee06ca98fcf8660ca4eadb.png

GFS/ECM sniffing out a pattern change to northern blocking again? We will soon be at the point where northern blocking = good, not like the awful run we had through spring and summer!

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Well looking beyond lorenzo   What the Gfs paints is a very wet and Bleak week  Copious amounts of rainfall  and blustery  making the Weather feel  well very autumnal 

 

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15 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Well looking beyond lorenzo   What the Gfs paints is a very wet and Bleak week  Copious amounts of rainfall  and blustery  making the Weather feel  well very autumnal 

 

Aye, the evolution is either looking to me like a quite active NW flow, or a flaccid N/NE flow, either way, temperatures nice and seasonal.

After the first windscreen-scraping of the season yesterday, I think the leaves are going to be dropping off apace in the next while. I'd better harvest the neighbour's overhanging pears sharpish...

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2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM portends to remarkable warmth again pluming up towards Greenland helping perpetuate the -NAO

+16C departures from the seasonal norm is certainly noteworthy .....

328C1EAE-64C8-4A53-A3D7-46C0E124A646.thumb.png.1f66b8ca65f2fecbc59010160094347f.png

I'm aware that's an anomaly chart, but +16 is pretty remarkable. Will it last for a couple of months though? Highly unlikely!!!

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A very autumnal-looking GEFS 06Z ensemble-set, by the looks of things. Though the warm Operational and cold Control (right at the end of the run) might just develop into something interesting???🤷‍♂️

t850Suffolk.png   prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

Today's post-count would suggest that 'interesting' ain't on the menu, just now...Back to binge-watching Salem I guess!:oldgrin:

 

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19 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I’m liking what’s now showing on models.  I mentioned an aggressive cool/cold pattern is emerging.  I think as we approach mid month there’ll be notable early wintriness for our hills.  I think we are possibly staring down the barrel of the ‘theme’ of Autumn and early winter, cold pM shots aplenty with added bite.

I’m gonna plunge in early this year...just like I think winter will.

 

BFTP 

No...Not another #winterofdiscontent!🥶 I like it too, Fred. It's a promising start:oldgrin:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

 

 

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6 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

The forthcoming winter review 19/20 will review this-

It has lasted since April 26th this year...

6FB916A0-59D4-4E6A-81F7-0C104A79B02C.thumb.jpeg.06e0b2290d089c48903ce10e9fd071db.jpeg

Not understanding your post exactly, the final strat warming always lasts through summer until you get nearer to the polar night so the pole cools again and then lowers heights relative to the mid latitudes and thus winds revert to Westerly surely?

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More and more of these colder ensembles showing there hands currently. This one brings quite a chill from the NW then perhaps the North... Quite possibly a few cold shots starting to appear in during the final 3rd of the month... Plenty of interest soon to be gathering one hopes. 

gens-3-1-348.png

gens-3-0-348.png

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48 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not understanding your post exactly, the final strat warming always lasts through summer until you get nearer to the polar night so the pole cools again and then lowers heights relative to the mid latitudes and thus winds revert to Westerly surely?

QBO:Currently Positive but trending negative likely for mid winter seemingly.

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50 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not understanding your post exactly, the final strat warming always lasts through summer until you get nearer to the polar night so the pole cools again and then lowers heights relative to the mid latitudes and thus winds revert to Westerly surely?

Hi mate - yes your correct however the residual heights over the pole shown in that chart are significantly anomalous to the norm - Also quite high up as well !

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GFS Operational is on the less-pleasant side of everything, tonight::oldgrin:

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

I don't know about the GEFS, feb, but let me know when snow starts to appear on the shed roof!🌨️

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1 minute ago, booferking said:

QBO:Currently Positive but trending negative likely for mid winter seemingly.

No, i think the QBO is an equatorial Oscillation but i think i have worked out what he meant anyway now - just that the AO has been negative since the final warming.

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hi mate - yes your correct however the residual heights over the pole shown in that chart are significantly anomalous to the norm - Also quite high up as well !

Thanks - yes.

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Ecm looking very similar to early October 1981. I'll say no more :) 

Screenshot_20191003-211001.png

Screenshot_20191003-210919.png

Screenshot_20191003-210852.png

Screenshot_20191003-210744.png

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