Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Sunny76

Will we get another 2008-2013 run of colder winters again?

Recommended Posts

6 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I’m of the opinion yes.  Indeed I think an aggressive cool pattern for autumn is setting up......leading to stints of well below average temps for both Oct and Nov.

Big Steve Murr makes imo a very good point though re themes of extremes either way impacting on seasonal CET.

 

BFTP

 

There are hints of this in the accuweather autumn forecast https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-2019-europe-autumn-forecast/70009041

Mind you, this statement hasn't been 100% correct for my location. "Most days in September will feature high temperatures in the low to mid-20s C (upper 60s and 70s F) in Paris, Berlin and Warsaw."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Just seen this, very surprised you recorded so many ice days in February 2012. There was only one day at Manchester Airport that failed to get above zero. As far as I remember that spell was a bit of a non-event for much of the UK. Just mostly cloudy and raw feeling. On the Continent it was a different story however. The second half of the month was mild almost all the way and there were some very high temperatures recorded.

I remember 2011/12 as being a mild and sunny winter- one of my favourites in fact.

Was a very enjoyable spell of weather in Essex - one of my favourites. Lowest minimum was abut -12C and deepest snowcover was around 7". I even made an igloo 😅

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Was a very enjoyable spell of weather in Essex - one of my favourites. Lowest minimum was abut -12C and deepest snowcover was around 7". I even made an igloo 😅

Perhaps I am swayed by the fact I was in the west of the country during the Feb 2012 spell. I was living in Cheltenham at the time where there was very little snow and it was above freezing during the day in that spell. Generally dry and cloudy with a bitter wind chill.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Was a very enjoyable spell of weather in Essex - one of my favourites. Lowest minimum was abut -12C and deepest snowcover was around 7". I even made an igloo 😅

Deepest snow cover we've had here on the Essex coast since Feb 1991...little wind but the snow fell for sometime on a stalling occluded front trying to make it's way eastwards against that huge Siberian High, I have to say that's the most on tenterhooks I've been whilst on this site whilst watching the models it really was a case of will the Atlantic front makes its way east or remain static over the east of England keeping the cold/very cold air, 'will it won't it' model watching episode went on for a few days - 6" of snow here and the first 10 days or so saw the average mean below zero and so I thought the first very cold February in yonks was on it's way, wrong! the 2nd half of the month became very mild and Feb 2012 turned out near average in an otherwise quite mild winter.

Edited by Froze were the Days

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was in South Tyneside during that February 2012 spell and remember an ice storm on 4 February and some freezing rain on 9 February, but I was just to the north of the freezing rain/snow boundary.  The ice melted quickly on the 5th, but I remember travelling down to Birmingham by train around the 6th/7th and finding that there was a fair amount of lying snow from Durham southwards, though not in Birmingham itself.  I saw pictures from the University of East Anglia suggesting that the Norwich area had fairly deep snow which stuck around for a while. 

I also remember January 2012 having an anticyclonic spell in the middle of the month with some stunning sunsets, reminiscent of the anticyclonic spell of 8-20 February 2008.   Otherwise nothing else sticks out as particularly noteworthy.  The winter of 2011/12 was also notable for insane warmth in the Russian and Norwegian Arctic with seasonal temperature anomalies locally in excess of 15C.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will just leave this here (they do seem to bang on about ice ages but we will see what happens in October / this winter)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I will just leave this here (they do seem to bang on about ice ages but we will see what happens in October / this winter)

 

Well they would say that wouldn't they, seen as though Electoverse is an AGW-denialist website.

Total nonsense, like the rest of the rubbish on there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, reef said:

Well they would say that wouldn't they, seen as though Electoverse is an AGW-denialist website.

Total nonsense, like the rest of the rubbish on there.

Just thought I would include it to see how close or probably more likely far off the mark it is 😂

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, reef said:

Well they would say that wouldn't they, seen as though Electoverse is an AGW-denialist website.

Total nonsense, like the rest of the rubbish on there.

Not all complete nonsense/rubbish - some of it is useful if you can ignore the rest  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You have to remember that many of the sceptic websites are in the US. Weather from Central Canada to the midwest to the Great Lakes has been getting colder and snowier over the last 20 years. Montana and the NW had record breaking snows and cold in February and disruptive snow storms into May and June. A couple of ski resorts stayed open until the end of July. Now they have what looks likely to be a record breaking winter storm in September with 2-4 feet of snow already recorded in 2 days and 2 days more snow expected. That was a short summer for them! The Great Lakes ice trend has been an increasing one since the 1998 El Nino and 4 of the last 6 years have been above the 1973-2019 average.  People aged under 25 living in much of central USA probably only remember winters getting progressively worse so sceptic websites could be very popular in these areas. It's different on other part sof the world, though.

Increasing North American snow

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=namgnld&ui_season=1

Increasing Great Lakes Ice over last two decades

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/#historical

The new clean US landstation network shows no warming or cooling for the USA in 15 years

https://backroombuzz.com/no-climate-change-warming-since-2005/usrcn-2005-2019/

However, most sea temps and other land parts of the world are warming. It seems to be just North America and maybe Antarctica that might have have cooled a bit and there's a lot more to the planet than just these couple of areas that might be slightly cooler..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Aleman said:

You have to remember that many of the sceptic websites are in the US. Weather from Central Canada to the midwest to the Great Lakes has been getting colder and snowier over the last 20 years. Montana and the NW had record breaking snows and cold in February and disruptive snow storms into May and June. A couple of ski resorts stayed open until the end of July. Now they have what looks likely to be a record breaking winter storm in September with 2-4 feet of snow already recorded in 2 days and 2 days more snow expected. That was a short summer for them! The Great Lakes ice trend has been an increasing one since the 1998 El Nino and 4 of the last 6 years have been above the 1973-2019 average.  People aged under 25 living in much of central USA probably only remember winters getting progressively worse so sceptic websites could be very popular in these areas. It's different on other part sof the world, though.

Increasing North American snow

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=namgnld&ui_season=1

Increasing Great Lakes Ice over last two decades

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/#historical

The new clean US landstation network shows no warming or cooling for the USA in 15 years

https://backroombuzz.com/no-climate-change-warming-since-2005/usrcn-2005-2019/

However, most sea temps and other land parts of the world are warming. It seems to be just North America and maybe Antarctica that might have have cooled a bit and there's a lot more to the planet than just these couple of areas that might be slightly cooler..

Toronto is warming though. I remember how cold it was back in 2000, but even then, people told me it used to snow more before 1984 or something like that. It still gets cold though. 

Same goes for London or Southern England, our winters maybe milder, but cold and frost will still occur.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Toronto is warming though. I remember how cold it was back in 2000, but even then, people told me it used to snow more before 1984 or something like that. It still gets cold though. 

Same goes for London or Southern England, our winters maybe milder, but cold and frost will still occur.

No comparison between toronto and London in winter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Toronto is warming though. I remember how cold it was back in 2000, but even then, people told me it used to snow more before 1984 or something like that. It still gets cold though. 

Same goes for London or Southern England, our winters maybe milder, but cold and frost will still occur.

Has Toronto warmed over the last two decades? 

Lake Ontario, though less pronounced than the other Great Lakes, has had an increasing ice trend from the low years of 1998-2002.

Ontario.png

And Pearson Airport has a long trend warming trend but if you started at 1998, there looks to be no warming or maybe even a slight cooling.

https://www.expunctis.com/2018/05/01/Is-toronto-getting-warmer-these-days.html

But I'm just being pedantic, though, in defence of the main point I made. Some colder winters could still be concurrent with some hotter summers and Toronto specifically does not really matter as it's on the edge of the area I have mentioned. The point is that large areas of central North America show 20 years of slight cooling and increased snow, so plenty of (young) people living there might be more prone to doubt global warming and that might be why we see support for sceptic sites that often originate in the USA.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Aleman

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Aleman said:

Has Toronto warmed over the last two decades? 

Lake Ontario, though less pronounced than the other Great Lakes, has had an increasing ice trend from the low years of 1998-2002.

Ontario.png

And Pearson Airport has a long trend warming trend but if you started at 1998, there looks to be no warming or maybe even a slight cooling.

https://www.expunctis.com/2018/05/01/Is-toronto-getting-warmer-these-days.html

But I'm just being pedantic, though, in defence of the main point I made. Some colder winters could still be concurrent with some hotter summers and Toronto specifically does not really matter as it's on the edge of the area I have mentioned. The point is that large areas of central North America show 20 years of slight cooling and increased snow, so plenty of (young) people living there might be more prone to doubt global warming and that might be why we see support for sceptic sites that often originate in the USA.

 

 

 

 

I think this supports the reality that some areas won’t become warmer even during a warming trend, but will encountered colder temps and sometimes cold summers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I think this supports the reality that some areas won’t become warmer even during a warming trend, but will encountered colder temps and sometimes cold summers.

i did a little research into Edmonton over all the years data...in the last 20 years only winters have warmed..spring and Autumn are virtually unchanged and summers are slightly cooler than the long term average

Edited by cheeky_monkey

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/09/2019 at 20:09, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

 CANSIPS from 31st August (not sure when it updates)

November  cansips_z500a_nhem_3.thumb.png.ee5633480cb5a3b88d02de85f1149b87.png December cansips_z500a_nhem_4.thumb.png.8d1febcea2beb5d2828b090548814314.png January cansips_z500a_nhem_5.thumb.png.f36dec89cfdfb06a9ae5f42dbdb82936.png February cansips_z500a_nhem_6.thumb.png.84927da92cd9e1b032dcaa63df19cc08.png 

March cansips_z500a_nhem_7.thumb.png.691f3195617e77d2e8da23ff2c8b39a2.png 

updated CANSIPS

November cansips_z500a_nhem_2.thumb.png.2bf4426912440af1764e1b7a8e3c5617.png December 819889184_cansips_z500a_nhem_3(1).thumb.png.1320da43aed44cfb3cfae8b4eddcc42a.png January 1979635042_cansips_z500a_nhem_4(1).thumb.png.1bd9cf7a9493154f54454e9c08693706.png February 116824954_cansips_z500a_nhem_5(1).thumb.png.f217dbd1ec66863ed895db16b472bf0e.png 

March 1479453784_cansips_z500a_nhem_6(1).thumb.png.8ae9950db39da6bcfb849a43d1f26cfd.png 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks to me @Kirkcaldy Weather that the model has an inherent bias for Northern blocking based on last 2 runs - not sure you  can take that seriously.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks to me @Kirkcaldy Weather that the model has an inherent bias for Northern blocking based on last 2 runs - not sure you  can take that seriously.

Possibly (maybe better focusing on the areas with brighter oranges / reds) , just chucking it in the mix who knows we may end up with the most northern blocking ever seen 😂

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Possibly (maybe better focusing on the areas with brighter oranges / reds) , just chucking it in the mix who knows we may end up with the most northern blocking ever seen 😂

Hopefully!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 08/09/2019 at 17:32, Sunny76 said:

1979 is the year where some suggest warming began, although more subtlety. The winter of 1979-80 was much milder and almost snowless for many parts of England. 

Winter 1979-80 was certainly much milder compared to the previous winter, but certainly not that mild by the standards of recent years.  In that winter January was   actually quite cold, although February turned much milder.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 01/10/2019 at 23:32, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks to me @Kirkcaldy Weather that the model has an inherent bias for Northern blocking based on last 2 runs - not sure you  can take that seriously.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

The Matt Hugo one is interesting - doubt he would say that if he didn't believe it as he has a responsible job -surprised to see him say it on Oct 3rd but pleasantly surprised rather than anything.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The Matt Hugo one is interesting - doubt he would say that if he didn't believe it as he has a responsible job -surprised to see him say it on Oct 3rd but pleasantly surprised rather than anything.

Indeed.  I would be interested to hear his thoughts as to why he thinks this could be the case?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...