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Will we get another 2008-2013 run of colder winters again?

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Despite the high CET Jan 08 did feature a period of cooler zonality early on with back edge snowfall.

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On 16/09/2019 at 10:36, northwestsnow said:

A WNW is the ideal wind direction for me and thee, trouble is, the irish sea temps usually mess things up.

I think it was around Jan 1984 i saw one deliver big time here, but they rarely deliver.Easterly/North Easterly is king for us Feb..

Yes need cold embedded air to allow long lasting snowfall and cover here.. the Irish Sea can be a help and a hindrance. We did well in latter part of Jan 2015 from a WNW many snow showers, but snow was only able to stick through the night, and melted during the day, due to lack of proper cold uppers.

Dec 2009 and 2010 good examples of  WNW delivering big time thanks to deep embedded cold air, low pressure anchored down to the west and north - not a true WNW, more of a north/north easterly that took a long fetch and came at us from the WNW.

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WNW useless for here, showers travel through Stockport into Derbyshire, NW useless too, too mild, any snow melts by 10am

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8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

WNW useless for here, showers travel through Stockport into Derbyshire, NW useless too, too mild, any snow melts by 10am

NW winds best for you but comes with same issues as a wnw, irish sea temps!

Can imagine some classics from a nw direction in winters past when sea temps were a little colder.

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Here's some old classics from a NW or WNW direction, these brought plenty of snow to much of the North West:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1955/era/ERA_1_1955011712_1.png

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1958/era/ERA_1_1958011912_1.png

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1973/era/ERA_1_1973021400_1.png

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1978/era/ERA_1_1978011000_1.png

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1981/era/ERA_1_1981011500_1.png

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1982/era/ERA_1_1982121700_1.png

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1995/era/ERA_1_1995030200_1.png

This one, although brief, was pretty well timed:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2004/era/ERA_1_2004122512_1.png

This westerly brought severe snowstorms to many parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland, I don't think snow generally lay for long at low levels across the north of England though:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1993/era/ERA_1_1993011112_1.png

I was in Lancaster in the early 2000s so became pretty familiar with the search for these setups.  However, my luck was out during that spell - the only decent snowfall that Lancaster had during my time there was on Christmas Day 2004 (from the second-to-last north-westerly linked above), while I was away!

Actually, come to think of it, Lancaster had falling and lying snow from a west-north-westerly as recently as... this year, and it stuck around for a few days, so even in the current warmer climate it is possible.  I remember Lancaster University tweeting about it:

CFSR_1_2019013012_1.png

Edited by Thundery wintry showers

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On 12/09/2019 at 18:15, Frost HoIIow said:

I see your point but past severe Winters also relied on the transport network for bringing in supplies...not everyone had an allotment or their own food supply. There was still shops back in 62/63....which funnily enough needed transportation to get in the supplies. In regards to the power network we don't really know how it will cope. Not enough to panic about it. If things get bad in regards to supplies like food why not call in the army?

I think the bigger problem will be childcare - majority of teachers drive to work, many of them long distances, so schools are often closed with comparatively minor snow. 
If we had major snow and ice, and schools were closed, how many people will have to take time off work to look after their kids? If people are unable to get to work, that means shops may not all open or only short hours, public transport may not have enough drivers, etc., etc. 

It became a problem in many places in a small way two years ago, but I think in the event of serious and prolonged cold winter weather, the closed schools and the domino effect from there (no pizza deliveries, come to that!) will be the bigger problem. 

Bear in mind that when Edinburgh had its "Big Freeze" starting late Nov 2010, the post office promptly bolted closed all postboxes, and Tesco and Amazon both refused to take any online orders for anywhere in the wider region for weeks. 

And that did need the Army in the end - come the eventual stop, after something like six weeks with falling snow every day, the pavements across almost all the city had 8-10 inches of compacted snow-ice, so everyone had to walk in the roads (most of which had been impassable for most of the previous weeks). In some areas, pneumatic drills had to be used to break it up. 

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5 hours ago, BleakMidwinter said:

I think the bigger problem will be childcare - majority of teachers drive to work, many of them long distances, so schools are often closed with comparatively minor snow. 
If we had major snow and ice, and schools were closed, how many people will have to take time off work to look after their kids? If people are unable to get to work, that means shops may not all open or only short hours, public transport may not have enough drivers, etc., etc. 

It became a problem in many places in a small way two years ago, but I think in the event of serious and prolonged cold winter weather, the closed schools and the domino effect from there (no pizza deliveries, come to that!) will be the bigger problem. 

Bear in mind that when Edinburgh had its "Big Freeze" starting late Nov 2010, the post office promptly bolted closed all postboxes, and Tesco and Amazon both refused to take any online orders for anywhere in the wider region for weeks. 

And that did need the Army in the end - come the eventual stop, after something like six weeks with falling snow every day, the pavements across almost all the city had 8-10 inches of compacted snow-ice, so everyone had to walk in the roads (most of which had been impassable for most of the previous weeks). In some areas, pneumatic drills had to be used to break it up. 

I think also in places like the US it's a legal obligation to shovel snow from the "sidewalks" in front of your home. In the UK it isn't, people just leave it to go hard & icy. If people got off their backsides & did the same we wouldn't have as many problems but most people these days have a "not my problem" attitude. Places like New York can have something like 24 inches in as many hours - I was over there in Feb 2003 when that happened but apart from the airport shutting down for a while not much else did, it was still as bustly as ever. I can understand in more rural communities it would be difficult if we got another 62/63 but I think in the end in more built up areas people would cope but then again we just don't know, we can only speculate.

We had snow on the ground at the end of November 2010 & most of December 2010 with very little thawing apart from the milder blip around mid December but I don't recall major supermarkets shutting for any length of time or difficulties getting essentials like bread & milk etc. Again in more rural spots with nothing around for miles it would be difficult. I live in a semi rural part of a town where I live but at the same time I'm only a 10 mins drive from a large Tesco & Morissons. I had a hard time getting deliveries from Amazon etc but other than that outside in shops it was just quieter than normal. It was great getting served quick. Also I don't think you had falling snow every single day for six weeks because there was a mild blip nationwide in the December which would have broken the cycle before the cold surged back.

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On 19/09/2019 at 22:34, northwestsnow said:

NW winds best for you but comes with same issues as a wnw, irish sea temps!

Can imagine some classics from a nw direction in winters past when sea temps were a little colder.

I think the strength of the wind seems to be the issue. It is notable that when the wind dropped, these set-ups deliver. 

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1 minute ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I think also in places like the US it's a legal obligation to shovel snow from the "sidewalks" in front of your home. In the UK it isn't, people just leave it to go hard & icy. If people got off their backsides & did the same we wouldn't have as many problems but most people these days have a "not my problem" attitude. Places like New York can have something like 24 inches in as many hours - I was over there in Feb 2003 when that happened but apart from the airport shutting down for a while not much else did, it was still as bustly as ever. I can understand in more rural communities it would be difficult if we got another 62/63 but I think in the end in more built up areas people would cope but then again we just don't know, we can only speculate.

We had snow on the ground at the end of November 2010 & most of December 2010 with very little thawing apart from the milder blip around mid December but I don't recall major supermarkets shutting for any length of time or difficulties getting essentials like bread & milk etc. Again in more rural spots with nothing around for miles it would be difficult. I live in a semi rural part of a town where I live but at the same time I'm only a 10 mins drive from a large Tesco & Morissons. I had a hard time getting deliveries from Amazon etc but other than that outside in shops it was just quieter than normal. It was great getting served quick. Also I don't think you had falling snow every single day for six weeks because there was a mild blip nationwide in the December which would have broken the cycle before the cold surged back.

Oh, it turned out that it is a legal obligation in the UK as well but it's so rare for it to be a problem, esp in Edinburgh, that nobody knew, or had tools, etc... eventually people started to get the hang of it but by then there was so much compacted on most pavements it was impossible. We were lucky in the street I used to live in, a little dead-end lane, because we had one 87-year-old and one 65-year-old and they nipped out sharpish after each fall and cleared a track to the main road - then the 87-year-old went on holiday, and the woman next door and I tried and totally failed to keep on top of it and in the end after a weke she had to get three hefty builders from her work to come and clear it for cash! 🙂 


Edinburgh has its own micro-climate - that winter of 2009-2010 when the entire UK was blanketed in snow? Literally not a single lying flake and hardly any falling. I was lamp-post watching in despair. Then late Nov 2010 it walloped in like anything, and I stopped bothering (!) to measure it once it was over 20 inches in the back garden. Week after week it was that deep, hardly any vehicles moved, it was amazing. I used to go out on foot with our wooden sledge to help folk home with their shopping. We hadn't had snow like that since 1979-80 winter, my first one living there as a child. 
I may be mistaken about it being every single day, but if you have access to records, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Edinburgh didn't have that warm blip in December. Certainly there was nothing resembling a thaw. My recollection is that there was fresh snow every single morning because I was going out before dawn to sweep a path to the birdbath, to fill it, having swept ice and water out at dusk each evening (because it was less effort than trudging back and forth with kettles trying to thaw a frozen birdbath in the morning!). That first winter when I was ten we had two weeks when it didn't go above zero celsius and I remember thinking it must surely be very similar with the snow needing swept every morning. 


Telford, on the other hand, had incredible snow on Dec 7/8 2017, when we had an incredible blizzard from a NWerly Cheshire Gap Streamer, on the Friday, followed on the Sunday by blizzards coming up from the SW from a totally separate weather system. By the Tuesday when I tried to unbury the car it took over two hours to shift the frozen snow, which was 27cm deep on the roof of the car and had frozen completely in -12C overnights... I learnt then never to leave a car buried if you plan to use it before spring 🙂 

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