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Sunny76

Will we get another 2008-2013 run of colder winters again?

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2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Just from a purely statistical basis, given the low solar activity there is almost bound to be a cold winter in the next three. Is that not reasoably good news? With the exception of a few days around 1st of March 2018 there hasn't been much if any significant cold since 2013. Feels a bit overdue despite the doom and gloom of warming trends.

I think people will be in for a potential shock when the cold does return. It will be interesting to see how cold it gets.

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Please dont tell me we are heading for another mild one? Is there a man made way to make it colder other than fire weapons? Get Kim Jong-Un testing - ironic when he was, we had a cold winter! 

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43 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

Please dont tell me we are heading for another mild one? Is there a man made way to make it colder other than fire weapons? Get Kim Jong-Un testing - ironic when he was, we had a cold winter! 

Yes, build a wall about 8000 times the size of the one Donald Trump wants to build but in the Atlantic to the West of Ireland right the way from Greenland to Iberia.

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You have to laugh. It's like clockwork at this time of year. The usual 'Oh noes! Teh model showz mildz!!' and 'If teh model showz mild tehn it always verafies! zomg!' Followed by all the panicked posts responding to the aforementioned posts. 🤣 Good for a laugh!

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Let the panicking commence 😂 personally I would rather just wait and see what the shorter range charts are showing as we head through November and toward winter, we all remember how quickly 2010 and the BFTE developed. And if anyone is interested in the forecast for USA / Canada https://www.almanac.com/old-farmers-almanac-2020-winter-forecast

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4 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Let the panicking commence 😂 personally I would rather just wait and see what the shorter range charts are showing as we head through November and toward winter, we all remember how quickly 2010 and the BFTE developed. And if anyone is interested in the forecast for USA / Canada https://www.almanac.com/old-farmers-almanac-2020-winter-forecast

lol  thats a shocker    Bq  out for christmas.  Thankfully its many months away yet   and in my opinion  very unlikely to verify  like that.   Sure there will be surprises over the next 4 or 5 months. 

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If those ECM seasonal maps verify it will be a continuation of what we've largely experienced over the summer and continue to experience, at some time in the next few months there will be a pattern change again (as we saw in May and particularly June) and I'm not talking for a few days...I'd be very surprised if we get a continuation a dominant +NAO over the winter if we don't see changes in the next 2 months (by and large).

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1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Oh well, there’s always 2020/21 to look forward to! 🤪

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11 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh well, there’s always 2020/21 to look forward to! 🤪

TBH I would rather that kind of outlook than a zonal onslaught like 2013/14 IF it ended up like current predictions the hope would be for the higher pressure the the S/SW to move out west / north west and allow the lower pressure and colder air down from the north like December 2010 when the cold returned with a vengeance archivesnh-2010-12-10-12-0.thumb.png.f8cb2d53ba64bb0e40282b27c4e429bd.png  archivesnh-2010-12-17-0-0.thumb.png.e9a0b09f7c385db202c09d9de7f6b38d.png lets just wait and see where we end up 🤞 plenty snow for everyone 😀

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1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

If those ECM seasonal maps verify it will be a continuation of what we've largely experienced over the summer and continue to experience, at some time in the next few months there will be a pattern change again (as we saw in May and particularly June) and I'm not talking for a few days...I'd be very surprised if we get a continuation a dominant +NAO over the winter if we don't see changes in the next 2 months (by and large).

The past 4 months (May-Aug) have all had a -NAO, but past performance is not indicative of future results. Only 2 of the 19 months prior to that had a negative NAO.

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Another absolutely desperate model run for winter - thats the 2 most rated models showing a stinking great big Bartlett all winter.

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1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

If those ECM seasonal maps verify it will be a continuation of what we've largely experienced over the summer and continue to experience, at some time in the next few months there will be a pattern change again (as we saw in May and particularly June) and I'm not talking for a few days...I'd be very surprised if we get a continuation a dominant +NAO over the winter if we don't see changes in the next 2 months (by and large).

We haven't seen a +NAO all summer?

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6 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

The past 4 months (May-Aug) have all had a -NAO, but past performance is not indicative of future results. Only 2 of the 19 months prior to that had a negative NAO.

Back in the Good Ol' Days of the late 1960s, the state of the NAO was a much better guide than it is today -- but less-so in its overall index-value than in its alignment...?

Take 1969, for example: despite both January and February being dominated by -NAOs, January's was west-based and saw a CET of 5.5C, February's was east-based and the month was cold and snowy...

Things these days are nowhere near so simple...:unsure2:

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16 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Down south perhaps or more likely just an excuse to get days off. We had well over a foot of level snow in Jan 2010 but apart from 24 hours of disruption road networks were ploughed and everything more or less back to normal after that. I can understand if it snowed heavy every single day giving further accumulations but when does that happen? It didn't even in 62/63. If people stayed at home for days despite roads being cleared then nothing would get done.

It's not quite as simple as that. I remember the late 70s winters. We often had cold powder snow blowing in on a stiff northeasterly. It drifted across the roads and closed them. They ploughed and, because there was plenty of powder that was not sticky, it drifted across the roads and closed them again without any more new snow actually falling.

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47 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

The past 4 months (May-Aug) have all had a -NAO, but past performance is not indicative of future results. Only 2 of the 19 months prior to that had a negative NAO.

Well I don't know how these indexes are being tracked, you telling me both July and August have been -NAO?...well unless I've been staring at different synoptics since then, we've constantly had low pressure to our north/north west and briefly times to our west in the hotter 'spikes' so how the hell is that indicative of -NAO?

Lets get this right and this is basic meteorology here +NAO is the difference between heights (mb) to the south and low pressure to the north.

Edited by Froze were the Days

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4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well I don't know how these indexes are being tracked, you telling me both July and August have been -NAO?...well unless I've been staring at different synoptics since then, we've constantly had low pressure to our north/north west and briefly times to our west in the hotter 'spikes' so how the hell is that indicative of -NAO?

The indices are here:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/nao/

 

...and just picking a few days for July...

ECH101-0.GIF?00 ECH101-0.GIF?00

ECH101-0.GIF?00ECH101-0.GIF?00

ECH101-0.GIF?00ECH101-0.GIF?00

 

Looks about right to me?

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19 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I don't think it would be as catastrophic as people think. Most importantly peoples homes are warmer now than in the past. I lived through 62/63 when we only had one fire in the house (living room), no central heating at all & no indoor toilet....we had to break the ice in the toilet bowl. Most elderly people these days have central heating so can stay warm throughout their home. I guess the downside is going out to get shopping if they don't have family to fetch it for them. That's where the problems start if they have mobility/blood pressure/heart issues & most people over 75 do.

exactly...how do you think people cope in cold countries such as here in Canada??..its total drivel to say a 1963 style winter would be catastrophic

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2 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Let the panicking commence 😂 personally I would rather just wait and see what the shorter range charts are showing as we head through November and toward winter, we all remember how quickly 2010 and the BFTE developed. And if anyone is interested in the forecast for USA / Canada https://www.almanac.com/old-farmers-almanac-2020-winter-forecast

farmers alamnac is as right about as often as James Madden

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3 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

farmers alamnac is as right about as often as James Madden

😂 speaking of him I see he is charging £10 for a PDF winter forecast and wait for it "Also includes important details of 'to be prepared for SNOW dates'..." How on earth anyone can even claim to know exact dates of snowfall is ridiculous. https://exactaweather.com/ 

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James Madden... there's a name I'd fortuitously forgotten.

I wonder what Jonathan Powell is up to these days.

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4 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

James Madden... there's a name I'd fortuitously forgotten.

I wonder what Jonathan Powell is up to these days.

Or Piers Corbyn, or Ian Brown (he of the 'teapot')

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19 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

The indices are here:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/nao/

 

...and just picking a few days for July...

ECH101-0.GIF?00 ECH101-0.GIF?00

ECH101-0.GIF?00ECH101-0.GIF?00

ECH101-0.GIF?00ECH101-0.GIF?00

 

Looks about right to me?

hhhmmm yes on those maps you have a point...what about the other 25 days?...why have we had in this part of the world had so many south westerly or westerly days in July/August and even this month? maybe other than the hot plume days. I'm finding it hard to accept other than May/June has had -NAO, of the last umpteen summers the Atlantic driven weather has been far more evident and only one of those maps (1st) is evident of high pressure over Europe which in my mind has been ever present for the majority of July to now...

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23 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Or Piers Corbyn, or Ian Brown (he of the 'teapot')

Lets hope Ian Brown isn't celebrating the large teapot again, lets hope he is standing there with a double teapot aghast while we are all celebrating.

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We may get a teaser winter, similar to the one in 2008 to 2009.

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