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Will we get another 2008-2013 run of colder winters again?

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4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Quick question  what would you say you think is more reliable  the ecm monthly  or a glosse output  2 to 4 months out 

 I used to rate the EC monthly but once the GLOSEA upgraded i think that would take preference - the EC seasonal has shown blocking in the run up to the last 2 winters but has bust.

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Well you can't really compare as one is a seasonal model and the other is not...though they are both ensemble based.

You can compare but only up to 46 days, they are both ensemble means products with a heavy reliance on correct modelling of Srat-trop interaction.

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Just now, CreweCold said:

Well you can't really compare as one is a seasonal model and the other is not...though they are both ensemble based.

My point  is how woeful the ec46 performed at such short lead times last winter  why would you think the glossea model at 3 months or more out is spot on  

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes @CreweCold, a bit disappointing now - LRF's for winter seem much harder these days due to climate change, hoping though that the big melt season might do us favours in that department but there must be a much more complex science to it than sea ice loss, it must be to do with where it occurs as high sea ice extent didn't do us too bad during the LIA period did it?  would love to a winter LRF but analogues just have not bared fruit lately wrt prediction so is it really worth puting  in about 50 hours of work building analogues knowing if it comes out blocked it will probably bust anyway!

Interestingly the GLOSEA actually eased off the big +PDO signature as it progressed through the time stamps. To no avail though obviously. It does show the Atlantic cold pool though which has thought to have been a bane over the course of recent mild winters. Disappointing not to see it show the tripole emerging once again.

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Just now, CreweCold said:

Interestingly the GLOSEA actually eased off the big +PDO signature as it progressed through the time stamps. To no avail though obviously. It does show the Atlantic cold pool though which has thought to have been a bane over the course of recent mild winters. Disappointing not to see it show the tripole emerging once again.

yes agree with all of that.

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

My point  is how woeful the ec46 performed at such short lead times last winter  why would you think the glossea model at 3 months or more out is spot on  

In short, experience.

@feb1991blizzard will vouch that once any NWP modelling latches on to a straight forward zonal modelling, you rarely see it back away. The thought is it's because it's our default standard and easier for the model to 'map' Whereas anything outside of statistical norm is more difficult...which is why blocked scenarios tend to come off less.

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Just now, CreweCold said:

In short, experience.

@feb1991blizzard will vouch that once any NWP modelling latches on to a straight forward zonal modelling, you rarely see it back away. The thought is it's because it's our default standard and easier for the model to 'map' Whereas anything outside of statistical norm is more difficult...which is why blocked scenarios tend to come off less.

So in short you think the glossea  will be more on the money at a three month plus lead time  than the ec46 at a month lead time   interesting  time will tell   me  I have no idea 

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Put it this way, I didn't expect GLOSEA to look as horrific as it does today. It's a top 3 warmest winters ever kinda run.

Daffs would be out early Jan.

Edited by CreweCold

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

In short, experience.

@feb1991blizzard will vouch that once any NWP modelling latches on to a straight forward zonal modelling, you rarely see it back away. The thought is it's because it's our default standard and easier for the model to 'map' Whereas anything outside of statistical norm is more difficult...which is why blocked scenarios tend to come off less.

Yes although i think that applies more to 15-30 day range, certainly when an easterly starts to back away as it comes into D10 on the models, if significantly less members are showing it than on previous runs then you can pretty much kiss goodbye to it, you certainly need more than half flatlining at -10c at D10 and the vast majority by D7-8 usually.

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32 minutes ago, matty40s said:

I think you underestimate the lack of ruggedness in today's infrastructure and equipment.

Electricity and gas supplies are not prepared for anything approaching a 1963 Winter, you can no longer light a fire under your car/truck before you get it started in the mornings,  and the modern transport and distribution networks fail with 2" of snow.

Down south perhaps or more likely just an excuse to get days off. We had well over a foot of level snow in Jan 2010 but apart from 24 hours of disruption road networks were ploughed and everything more or less back to normal after that. I can understand if it snowed heavy every single day giving further accumulations but when does that happen? It didn't even in 62/63. If people stayed at home for days despite roads being cleared then nothing would get done.

Edited by Frost HoIIow

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Lord, March 2013 that was memorable for three reasons.

1. Yup it was bitterly cold

2. My Civil Partnership collapsed mid month- and I spent the month with no money thanks to my ex.

3. The night of the collapse, I remember walking across Plymouth Hoe in driving sleet at midnight being utterly heartbroken crying.

Can I all give that a miss for a repeat.......(thank lord I'm happily divorced and single now!)

 

Edited by philglossop

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Not saying the GloSea5 is right or wrong but possibly something to do with changes in April linking data with JMA which having a quick look also paints a similar picture for winter https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php  https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php  https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/notice 

"Changes to the Met Office seasonal prediction system

Notification of changes to the seasonal prediction system

GloSea5 Land Surface Initialisation – April 2019

From April 2019 GloSea5 will use a new approach for land surface initialisation. Initial conditions for soil moisture, soil temperature and snow will be generated by forcing the JULES land surface model with data from the Japanese Meteorological Agency’s atmospheric reanalysis (JRA-55). This approach allows us to create consistent land surface initial conditions for both the forecast and the full hindcast period (1993-2016). It also adds interannual variations to the soil moisture, whereas previously the soil moisture was initialised from a climatology.

 

Products with an issue date of April 2019 will be derived from the new system;

Products for all future dates will be derived from the new system until further notice;

Forecasts issued prior to April 2019, based on the former system (see below) will remain in place on the website;

Corresponding changes will be made to the verification information."

It is easy to get caught up in the seasonal models but as last winter showed with the background signals whether things are looking favourable or horrible it can end up completely different so this winter probably a good idea to take it a week or 2 at a time rather than all the months in one.

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Gavin will also do some re-analysis on downwelling E-QBO's during NH winters at some point, that's a very important factor, i believe that despite the QBO state being fairly easy to predict, the models don't actually model it that well.

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12 minutes ago, philglossop said:

Lord, March 2013 that was memorable for three reasons.

1. Yup it was bitterly cold

2. My Civil Partnership collapsed mid month- and I spent the month with no money thanks to my ex.

3. The night of the collapse, I remember walking across Plymouth Hoe in driving sleet at midnight being utterly heartbroken crying.

Can I all give that a miss for a repeat.......(thank lord I'm happily divorced and single now!)

 

Presumably though you would have been much happier if it had been snow, could have been worse though, could have been rain!!

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40 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Quick question  what would you say you think is more reliable  the ecm monthly  or a glosse output  2 to 4 months out 

None there all a pile of Sh..t they were an absoulte let down last year the quicker people understand this the better we can't even predict with 100% accuracy the path of a hurricane 2 days out never mind a winter pattern for this tiny island 4 months out. 

Best to take it week by week on the NHM If you don't won't led up the garden path.

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Presumably though you would have been much happier if it had been snow, could have been worse though, could have been rain!!

Trust me if it had been snowing, watching your life of 12 years collapse that night I wouldn't have cared less. Funny how I remember that sleety evening the most of that March. The rest is a total blur.

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48 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Put it this way, I didn't expect GLOSEA to look as horrific as it does today. It's a top 3 warmest winters ever kinda run.

Daffs would be out early Jan.

Could be a long winter at this rate.  Can’t see a repeat of 10 years ago or even 2 years ago 😢  Sounds like next months update, can’t get much worse!

Edited by Don

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2 minutes ago, philglossop said:

Trust me if it had been snowing, watching your life of 12 years collapse that night I wouldn't have cared less. Funny how I remember that sleety evening the most of that March. The rest is a total blur.

I suppose its different for me because i would put snow ahead of any relationship, worst feeling ever when my mom snuffed it in 2017, probably would not have cared less then but that's probably the only time since i got back into this in feb 2009 that i wouldn't have cared, but even then i still think i would have been back on the forum about a month later if it snowed albeit not with the same kind of enthusiasm.

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4 minutes ago, Don said:

Could be a long winter at this rate.  Can’t see a repeat of 10 years ago or even 2 years ago 😢

But those events also seemed unlikely before they happened (especially months before them). Would have been interesting if the seasonal models were making predictions before 1962/63 and 1947 etc and how close/far away they would have been.

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A long winter it is then, November through to March with echoes of 09, Dec 10, and beasts galore with even widespread thunder snow thrown in for fun. Enjoy.

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2 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

But those events also seemed unlikely before they happened (especially months before them). Would have been interesting if the seasonal models were making predictions before 1962/63 and 1947 etc and how close/far away they would have been.

I would like to see the full ens suites for Jan 87 and Feb 1991, 91 D5 op modelling must have been good as Ian McCaskill's countryfile forecast was bang on and with high confidence and no caveats mentioned.

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I will just leave this here...

On 28/01/2019 at 12:37, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 26 Feb 2019:

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Stick to forecasts that are at most 5 to 7 days away, browse the models/charts yourself/come to own conclusion and most importantly look out the window! 😀

The above should keep you sane throughout Winter 2019/20.

We live in the UK/Ireland which means we will always be in the draw for cold/snow in Winter. (whether that be a one/two day special or something more sustained)...it’s better than nothing if that is ones preferred weather type.

Hopefully every member on this forum gets the desired outcome they crave this Winter - whether it be snow/rain/severe gales/mild or crisp clear frosty days...I wish you all the best!

Cheers! 🎅🍻

 

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, can't wait for March to come, wish i could just fast forward now because of that one run, in fact lets just forget about the next 1000 years if the climate change boys are right.:oldlaugh:

Which means let’s skip winter if it’s that boring 🤣

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11 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I will just leave this here...

Stick to forecasts that are at most 5 to 7 days away, browse the models/charts yourself/come to own conclusion and most importantly look out the window! 😀

The above should keep you sane throughout Winter 2019/20.

We live in the UK/Ireland which means we will always be in the draw for cold/snow in Winter. (whether that be a one/two day special or something more sustained)...it’s better than nothing if that is ones preferred weather type.

Hopefully every member on this forum gets the desired outcome they crave this Winter - whether it be snow/rain/severe gales/mild or crisp clear frosty days...I wish you all the best!

Cheers! 🎅🍻

 

Problem is though those type of forecasts are much more prone to bust than mild Atlantic driven ones at the same lead time.

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Just from a purely statistical basis, given the low solar activity there is almost bound to be a cold winter in the next three. Is that not reasoably good news? With the exception of a few days around 1st of March 2018 there hasn't been much if any significant cold since 2013. Feels a bit overdue despite the doom and gloom of warming trends.

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