South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards

[SenlacJack]

Facebook has it's uses. It reminded me that on this day one year ago we had snow down here on the South Coast, an event I had completely forgotten.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

Without wanting to turn this Thread Political, happen to think its a sad Day, Today.

But havn't we already had a Brr...exit, with this "no show" Winter? 

I personally feel very European. Although born in Bromley Kent, I had an Italian Mother and a half German Father.

Both my Parents have now passed away (R.I.P.).

Above is an image of my Desktop Wallpaper and I've stood in this very spot. (and proves I get up very early.).

Mum was born some 40 odd Miles, to the North of Pompeii.

It depicts the ruins of Pompeii and dominating the scene is Mount Vesuvius, catalyst for the destruction of Pompeii. 

 A little later I will comment on 00z Model Runs, as more of our "settling Snow" predictions come onto the radar, of the GFS Model.

Regards,

Tom.

Edited January 31, 2020 by TomSE12

[NO LONGER POSTING]

A monumental day coming up as we leave the EU. Although we go into the transition period with hopefully everything done and dusted by the end of the year.. 

Remember we are leaving the European Union. Not Europe. 

I import £1000s of plants from Europe each year, my German suppliers French suppliers Italian suppliers have all be laughing at our news papers and watching it unfold.. Guess what? Every single one of them wants to leave the EU to and has assured me it won't affect anything.. They are all good guys I trust, them I'm not worried.. 

My bamboo has loved this winter with the Japonicas not actually stopping growing only slowing down slightly incredible! A number of suppliers in the UK have been talking to me about how mild it has been and how well everything is doing.. 

I'm protected as bamboo is hardy down to - 25 most types.. But if we do get late cold say around mid March or early April I fear some serious damage will been done (again) 

 

 

Edited January 31, 2020 by Surrey

[John Stevens]

Don’t think this will be happening again in 2 days time.....pics courtesy of this yesterday’s Dorking Ad

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

As expected, there were no further "Virtual" Wagers placed on the Thread, last Night. The Entry Deadline for these Wagers, has now expired.

Below, is a record of each "Virtual" Wager placed, in each of the three Categories. It also shows the "Virtual" Returns gained if your Bet, is successful and the "Virtual" Returns plus Bonus (Double the Odds), if the "Punter" also experiences settling Snow, on the same Date. The "Punter" who gains the most "Virtual" Returns, shall be deemed the Winner.

The Winning Entry, will have the choice of 2 "Virtual" Prizes, which are as follows:

1. An all expenses paid "Virtual" Week in the Skiing Resort of your choice plus Skiing Lessons , from a qualified Ski Instructor. 

Or,

2. An expenses paid "Virtual" Week in Lappland, during Christmas 2020. Your accommodation, will be a Log Cabin. You will also experience Reindeer   drawn, Sleigh Rides plus tuition on how to operate a Snowmobile, and of course meet Father Christmas.

Below, is a list of all those "Virtual" Wagers:

CATEGORY 1. OUTRIGHT WINNER

   PUNTER                   SELECTION           DATE        STAKE       "V"/R      "V"/R (with Bonus)

  Timbo                       Timbo  @ 10/1      10th FEB     £5 WIN      £55.00             £105.00

**K/Weather**          Lottiekent  @ 10/1  16th FEB     £5 WIN      £55.00           **£80.00**

  TomSE12              Steve Murr @ 10/1   14th FEB   £2.50 E.W.  £36.25              £61.25

  John Stevens        Sen' Jack @ 14/1    26th FEB   £2.50 E.W.  £51.25              £81.25

  Septic Peg             Lottiekent @ 10/1   16th FEB   £2.50 E.W.  £36.25              £61.25

  Lottiekent                Timbo @ 10/1        10th FEB   £2.50 E.W.  £36.25             £61.25

  snowray                snowray @ 10/1      22nd FEB  £2.50 E.W.   £36.25             £61.25

**N/B** - K/Weather. As K/Weather lives in E. Scotland and it's colder than S.E. England, I've introduced a bit of Climatology, into the Competition. Should he be correct with his predicted Wager and receive some settling Snow, on the same Date, his Bonus will only be half of the Odds of his Wager, i.e - 15/1.

CATEGORY 2. NORTH THAMES WINNER

  PUNTER              SELECTION                    DATE        STAKE       "V"/R       "V"/R (with Bonus)

   claret047          claret047 @ 80/1            23rd MAR  £2.50 E.W.  £255.00             £505.00

  Timbo                Timbo      @ 4/1              10th FEB     £5 WIN      £25.00               £45.00

  TomSE12           Timbo     @ 4/1              10th FEB     £5 WIN      £25.00               £45.00

**K/Weather**     Team Squirrel @ 4/1      19th FEB     £5 WIN      £25.00            **£35.00**

  John Stevens   Team Squirrel @ 4/1      19th FEB   £2.50 E.W.  £17.50               £27.50

  Septic Peg        Team Squirrel @ 4/1      19th FEB    £5 WIN      £25.00               £45.00

  Lottiekent         Timbo     @ 4/1               10th FEB    £5 WIN      £25.00               £45.00

  snowray            claret047 @ 80/1           23rd MAR  £2.50 E.W. £255.00             £505.00

CATEGORY 3. SOUTH THAMES WINNER

  PUNTER              SELECTION                    DATE        STAKE        "V"/R       "V"/R (with Bonus)

  TomSE12              Steve Murr @ 8/1       14th FEB   £2.50 E.W.   £30.00             £55.00

**K/Weather**         Lottiekent @ 8/1        16th FEB   £5 WIN         £45.00          **£65.00** 

  John Stevens       Sen' Jack @ 10/1       26th FEB  £2.50 E.W.    £36.25             £61.25

  Mark Wh'ler          Mark Wh'ler @ 80/1  22nd MAR £2.50 E.W.    £255.00          £505.00

  Timbo                    Lottiekent @ 8/1       16th FEB   £5 WIN          £45.00            £85.00

  Septic Peg            Lottiekent @ 8/1       16th FEB   £2.50 E.W.    £30.00             £55.00

  Lottiekent             Lottiekent @ 8/1       16th FEB   £2.50 E.W.    £30.00             £55.00

  snowray                snowray   @ 8/1      22nd FEB   £2.50 E.W.    £30.00             £55.00

                                                                 KEY

                                       Punter in Blue = North Thames Member.

                                       Punter in Red  = South Thames Member.

                                    Punter in Black  = Member outside Region.

                                    Punter in Green = Guest.

                                                     "V"/R  = "Virtual" Returns.

 

In a short while, I will comment on the latest Model Runs, as more of our "settling Snow" predictions come onto the radar, of Forecast Models.

Regards,

Tom.    

Edited January 31, 2020 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

1 hour ago, John Stevens said:

Don’t think this will be happening again in 2 days time.....pics courtesy of this yesterday’s Dorking Ad

Great photos there John, of the "Thames Streamer" event of February 2009. 

It was a very strange behaving "Streamer", as areas such as Dorking received more Snow than further East.

My work location of Croydon even "out-snowed", my home location of near Bromley, Kent.. Normally, unheard of in Thames "Snow Streamer" events.

Some Members may have read Paul Sherman's superb account and the dynamics that caused this "Thames Streamer", to behave differently.

Regards,

Tom.   

Edited January 31, 2020 by TomSE12

[John Stevens]

20 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Great photos there John, of the "Thames Streamer" event of February 2009. 

It was a very strange behaving "Streamer", as areas such as Dorking received more Snow than further East.

My work location of Croydon even "out-snowed", my home location of near Bromley, Kent.. Normally, unheard of in Thames "Snow Streamer" events.

Some Members may have read Paul Sherman's superb account and the dynamics that caused this "Thames Streamer", to behave differently.

Regards,

Tom.   

I remember it well Tom....the school where I still teach, up in the Surrey Hills, was deluged! We had 4-5ft icicles hanging from some of the buildings in the following days!

[Reefseeker]

Fairly muggy and grey out this morning for the dog walk in Nonsuch Park where it is still incredibly wet and muddy, the local park can't dry out at all and is just a watery swamp in many places. The breeze/wind (depending on the spot I was walking) was rather cool needing the coat to be done up even though higher temperatures are predicted today.

The 2009 event is my favourite snow event possibly of all time, perhaps barring the late 70s/early 80s heavy snowfalls in the west country (can't remember the exact year). Ewell Road from the A3 to Surbiton was completely snowed over and people were so excited out walking in it. Of course for many they had to continue with their lives and cars did inch along Ewell Road but I've never seen anything like it before or since. As you say @TomSE12 that was an exceptional Thames Streamer and SO much fun to experience. And as I've mentioned previously, set some very happy memories for my son who was nine at the time and who then got to enjoy the 2010 snowfall. Agreed, and I know I've said this before, Paul Sherman's amazing analysis of that event is what really brought me to Netweather.

 

Edited January 31, 2020 by Reefseeker

[stainesbloke]

5 hours ago, Surrey said:

A monumental day coming up as we leave the EU. Although we go into the transition period with hopefully everything done and dusted by the end of the year.. 

Remember we are leaving the European Union. Not Europe. 

I import £1000s of plants from Europe each year, my German suppliers French suppliers Italian suppliers have all be laughing at our news papers and watching it unfold.. Guess what? Every single one of them wants to leave the EU to and has assured me it won't affect anything.. They are all good guys I trust, them I'm not worried.. 

My bamboo has loved this winter with the Japonicas not actually stopping growing only slowing down slightly incredible! A number of suppliers in the UK have been talking to me about how mild it has been and how well everything is doing.. 

I'm protected as bamboo is hardy down to - 25 most types.. But if we do get late cold say around mid March or early April I fear some serious damage will been done (again) 

 

 

It’s an incredibly sad day, in my humble opinion. I’m desperately hoping that I’m wrong but I reckon the real sh *t is still to hit the fan and it won’t be pretty. The UK thinks too much of itself and will be getting a much needed reality check soon. Some may disagree but look at the reality - nothing works properly, traffic gets worse every year and quality of life here is ever falling. And it never snows anymore

The weather today is suitably glum, grey grey grey and mild with a strong SW’ly wind. 12°C currently. 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

It’s an incredibly sad day, in my humble opinion. I’m desperately hoping that I’m wrong but I reckon the real sh *t is still to hit the fan and it won’t be pretty. The UK thinks too much of itself and will be getting a much needed reality check soon. Some may disagree but look at the reality - nothing works properly, traffic gets worse every year and quality of life here is ever falling. And it never snows anymore

The weather today is suitably glum, grey grey grey and mild with a strong SW’ly wind. 12°C currently. 

 

I'm hoping to not live here when I'm older.. I fancy a place away from humans lol! Outer space maybe? 

GFS doing its default west to east weather.. But a pretty grim output with westerly dominated weather with a bit of cold air in the mix.. 

If it was say march or April and we had those kinds of uppers being dragged in with low pressure it would make for some pretty lively showers and thunderstorms but the sun lacks any power at the moment 

[stainesbloke]

59 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I'm hoping to not live here when I'm older.. I fancy a place away from humans lol! Outer space maybe? 

GFS doing its default west to east weather.. But a pretty grim output with westerly dominated weather with a bit of cold air in the mix.. 

If it was say march or April and we had those kinds of uppers being dragged in with low pressure it would make for some pretty lively showers and thunderstorms but the sun lacks any power at the moment 

Yes, another thing mostly missing this winter has been those days of lively convection with thunder and hail. I’m sure the weather will turn cold, just when I don’t want it to. Such are the joys of gardening here. No sign of winter in Prague either, it’s 14°C there today, extremely mild for late January.

Edited January 31, 2020 by stainesbloke

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Really warm day here in Margate, feels more like May, chillin' in roost cafe by the sea

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Just want to make a few comments, re. the NETWEATHER S.E.REGION SETTLING SNOW CUP.

We are now getting to the stage where more and more Member's predictions are appearing on the Radar of Forecast Models, that go out into "la la land".

Back to the here and now, as expected Ms Basso looks like being the first casualty. Sadly Katrine, faces her own KEXIT Day. It would take on act of God, to save her now, after her bold prediction of "Settling Snow", on the 31st Jan.

My red "settling" pen, is getting twitchy. I learned from bitter experience not to "knock out" (put a line through) Wagers, before the whistle has blown or the finishing line has been crossed, in Sport.

I was working for a Credit Bookmakers in May 1979, and settling (calculating) Bets on the 1979 F.A.Cup Final, between Arsenal and Manchester United. Arsenal were leading 2-0 with 5 minutes to go, when United scored. So, those Correct Score ,had to be resettled.

In the 88th minute, United equalised and there was a lot of frantic "rubbing out", with a Draw now looking certain and the Match, heading for Extra Time. With the Referee about to blow his whistle for Full Time, Arsenal scored a late Winner, to make it 3-2.

A salient lesson was learned about "Settling", being, to never jump the gun regarding Sports Results.

But it would take an escape of Harry Houdini proportions, to pull this one "out of the fire", for Katrine.

Next up, in 10 Days time, will be Timbo. The GFS Day 10 (t240), is not without interest and if GFS are on the ball, that very cold air, could push further South. 

Next up, will be TomSE12 and Steve Murr, and not looking quite as interesting for us, at Day 14 (t336).

We'd need quite a bit of tweaking from there, to experience some white confetti Gold, on Valentine's Day.

I'll comment on how the Synoptics are looking re. the chance of Snow, for our next contenders, Septic Peg (15th), and Lottiekent (16th), in the Morning.

It's mine and Septic's 10th Wedding Anniversary, on the 15th. But some of Nature's own confetti, just like the few Snow Grains we experienced on our "Big Day", looking unlikely at the moment!

More Runs needed, and I'll comment on some of those in the Morning.

Regards,

Tom.   

[John Stevens]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

Just want to make a few comments, re. the NETWEATHER S.E.REGION SETTLING SNOW CUP.

We are now getting to the stage where more and more Member's predictions are appearing on the Radar of Forecast Models, that go out into "la la land".

Back to the here and now, as expected Ms Basso looks like being the first casualty. Sadly Katrine, faces her own KEXIT Day. It would take on act of God, to save her now, after her bold prediction of "Settling Snow", on the 31st Jan.

My red "settling" pen, is getting twitchy. I learned from bitter experience not to "knock out" (put a line through) Wagers, before the whistle has blown or the finishing line has been crossed, in Sport.

I was working for a Credit Bookmakers in May 1979, and settling (calculating) Bets on the 1979 F.A.Cup Final, between Arsenal and Manchester United. Arsenal were leading 2-0 with 5 minutes to go, when United scored. So, those Correct Score ,had to be resettled.

In the 88th minute, United equalised and there was a lot of frantic "rubbing out", with a Draw now looking certain and the Match, heading for Extra Time. With the Referee about to blow his whistle for Full Time, Arsenal scored a late Winner, to make it 3-2.

A salient lesson was learned about "Settling", being, to never jump the gun regarding Sports Results.

But it would take an escape of Harry Houdini proportions, to pull this one "out of the fire", for Katrine.

Next up, in 10 Days time, will be Timbo. The GFS Day 10 (t240), is not without interest and if GFS are on the ball, that very cold air, could push further South. 

Next up, will be TomSE12 and Steve Murr, and not looking quite as interesting for us, at Day 14 (t336).

We'd need quite a bit of tweaking from there, to experience some white confetti Gold, on Valentine's Day.

I'll comment on how the Synoptics are looking re. the chance of Snow, for our next contenders, Septic Peg (15th), and Lottiekent (16th), in the Morning.

It's mine and Septic's 10th Wedding Anniversary, on the 15th. But some of Nature's own confetti, just like the few Snow Grains we experienced on our "Big Day", looking unlikely at the moment!

More Runs needed, and I'll comment on some of those in the Morning.

Regards,

Tom.   

Thank you @TomSE12 for the update... far more entertaining than watching either the MAD thread or Stav on the BBC this evening....

The weather here in the Surrey Hills is very murky...Unfortunately a bit like watching the mood on all the main tv channels this evening...

As Roy Waller ( an old radio BBC Radio Norwich DJ world probably have said) ..Brexit and the lack of snow..,,”it ain’t funny, but you gotta laugh “

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Decent day here in Ramsgate, sunnyish must be around 11C, sadly last day here today, back home tonight

 

 

[snowray]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Decent day here in Ramsgate, sunnyish must be around 11C, sadly last day here today, back home tonight

 

 

Are on holiday down there? I keep getting mixed reports for the area, some say Margate has become quite rough, others say it's pretty mixed, some nice parts. What are your impressions on Margate/Ramsgate?

[snowray]

Yes it would seem that Catherine is out, next up Timbo on the 10th. Having looked at the model output I would think that it's the late Feb entries that are now looking favorite, but it's not a pretty picture for snow lovers, so can we squeeze in a few flakes or not by the end of the month? I'm starting to wonder.

Edited February 1, 2020 by snowray

[Froze were the Days]

If we can't get any snowfall next week in this region (which looks unlikely) from the brief northerly which looks more of a north westerly now then the rest of the month looks like a write off for any form of settling snow - can't remember the last time we had settling snow from a Pm air mass on a westerly or north westerly? (maybe back in the 80's)... which looks like the only hope here.

Edited February 1, 2020 by Froze were the Days

[I remember Atlantic 252]

45 minutes ago, snowray said:

Are on holiday down there? I keep getting mixed reports for the area, some say Margate has become quite rough, others say it's pretty mixed, some nice parts. What are your impressions on Margate/Ramsgate?

Margate felt a bit common, Ramsgate much better, both great areas though compared to stafford

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Certainly feels warmer than home, wish though of course a beasterly timed for my few days here, but never that lucky

[Emz by the Thames]

First day back at the allotment - shallots are in and tomato seeds in pots. Rhubarb already 10cms high. Sunny, mild but some huge gusts. 

 

[snowray]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Margate felt a bit common, Ramsgate much better, both great areas though compared to stafford

Really, better than Stafford you say. I have had thoughts about moving down Thanet way, I like to be by the sea and property is still relatively cheap compared to London, maybe its because I'm Aquarius. Here in Erith the River Thames looks a bit like being at the seaside at high tide but its not the same thing.

[snowray]

28 minutes ago, Team Squirrel said:

First day back at the allotment - shallots are in and tomato seeds in pots. Rhubarb already 10cms high. Sunny, mild but some huge gusts. 

 

Wind really picked up here too, still sunny, but I almost got blown over just now.

[Dami]

We had a massive gust of wind so much that the bins blew over  It was wear a cardie day, as a little chilly in just a t-shirt and joggers. 

Just want a nice few showers of snow, a stew in the slow cooker and cosy pj's. Why is that so hard, it's winter.

 

 

[Donna3397]

It’s been a lovely day in Rye today, the sun has been out and my crazy son even insisted on wearing a t-shirt out and about. . My eldest had football training last night and it was awful. I’m not to worried about the rain but it was relentless and the wind got up within a short amount of time.  Chance of a lot of stormy weather the next few weeks if the charts are telling the truth. ( they probably will be if it means we’re going to get rain) . You do never know it may push some chilly air our way which would be nice but I doubt it . I have just noticed that netweather has put an 18% chance of snow on my location for ten days time. It’s a long way off but it’s the first time I’ve seen that so I might even take a picture. 

Edited February 1, 2020 by DonnaThw